Thread by @ulrichspeck

Zelensky: "in the future Ukraine must have a collective security agreement with all its neighbors and with the participation of the world’s leading countries - the United States, France, Germany and Turkey"

https://twitter.com/LianaFix/status/1501444034337853440

Which obviously must be more than the Budapest Memorandum 1994 which was just a piece of paper. It can only work if these countries are actively involved in guaranteeing Ukraine's borders. At a minimum they must help Ukraine quickly build a strong military force.

Something they failed to do after 2015 because they were afraid of a Russian reaction -- yet this reaction was exactly what happened in 2022. It was Ukraine's military weakness that has encouraged Putin to wage war.

- Ukraine and Russia would have to agree on a line of contact;
- Russia would have to agree that Western countries help Ukraine militarily;
- Western countries would have to accept to play a major role in helping to secure Ukraine militarily

In other words,
- Ukraine would have to accept (temporary) loss of territory;
- Russia would have to accept Ukrainian sovereignty and independence;
- major Western countries would have to accept direct involvement in Ukraine's military security

The biggest obstacle is that Putin probably still thinks he can get it all -- full submission of all of Ukraine, no sovereignty, no independence. Ukraine's military resistance and Western sanctions must bring about a situation in which Putin accepts that this is not attainable.

Whether major Western countries are ready to guarantee a sustainable peace is hard to say, it would imply risks of conflict with Russia. But given the shock of the war, and in a situation in which Russia accepts such an arrangement, possible. Depends also on the terms.