You know it is the most trite thing, but the thing that keeps popping into my head watching the ramshackle Russian operations in Ukraine is that scene in Kingdom of Heaven where Saladin patiently explains to his subordinate how battles are won.
"...battles are determined by God, but also by preparation, numbers, absence of disease and availability of water. One cannot maintain a siege with the enemy behind."

That last line could be the caption to every photo of a burned out Russian truck.
Of course that line is a bit funny in context because at Acre in 1191 the crusaders absolutely did maintain a siege with *Saladin* behind counter-besieging, so, you know, no absolutes.

Still a bad sign when movie strategists appear to understand it better than a real world army.
You could absolutely get the wisdom to avoid a catastrophe like this from Sun Tzu or Clausewitz or Jomini or any number of other theorists who would talk sieges, friction, interior lines, will, etc.

Or, apparently, you can get it from Ridley f***ing Scott.

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More from @BretDevereaux

Mar 9
Seeing a lot of chatter about Ukraine needing to 'prepare for insurgency' but also that they can't do insurgency.

And I think this is a definition problem because depending on how your define insurgency, Ukraine is either 1) already doing it or 2) probably won't ever do it.

1/
If what you are expecting by 'insurgency' is something that looks like AQI in 2006 or the Taliben in 2011, that's unlikely to happen for the simple reason that the Ukrainian army still exists and as a result Ukraine has other options to resist with. 2/
As I've noted elsewhere, insurgency in this sense - operating in territory the enemy controls (rather than just moves through) using the population as covering terrain without the support of a conventional military - that sort of insurgency is a hard way to fight. 3/
Read 17 tweets
Mar 9
People need to prepare themselves for what the end of hostilities in Ukraine might look like, though it doesn't seem imminent.

Because peace agreements are rarely clear, clean things AND also because folks need to be prepared for NATO and Ukrainian interests to diverge. 1/
Ending a conflict like this one - especially in a shorter time-scale - is likely to involve messy compromises. A truly protracted war might have a clearer, cleaner ending, but involve much more death and destruction, as we've discussed: acoup.blog/2022/03/03/col…
2/
I think regime change in Kyiv is, at this point, an unlikely outcome; I don't think Russia has the juice for it. Instead, negotiations seem to revolve around the Donbas, Crimea, and Ukraine's joining the EU and NATO.

There are lots of possible combinations in that space. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Mar 8
It seems relevant to point out that the Russian strategy of fostering 'frozen conflicts' in Georgia, Moldova and Azerbaijan create a number of crisis points where, if Russian state backing suddenly evaporated, we could see hostilities reignite.
By contrast a lot of comments in the original thread are focusing on things that only happen in Risk games (China invading Siberia).

But imagine there are discussions right now in Chisinau, Tbilisi and Baku trying to figure out what Russian success OR failure means for them.
Though I wouldn't expect this to 'save' Ukraine or anything like it; I doubt anyone will jump until they're sure which way the wind blows. More likely that Russian failure in Ukraine, if dramatic enough, may trigger a series of 'Ukraine War Afterparties' as Russian power recedes.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 3
This week on the blog, we're talking about the theory of protracted war - a strategic framework for a militarily weaker power looking to outlast and eventually defeat a much stronger enemy (with a brief discussion of implications re: Ukraine): acoup.blog/2022/03/03/col…
Decided to post this one early because events are moving quickly and it seemed like an accessible primer on this sort of warfare could help people to understand what is happening in Ukraine and how the conflict may evolve.
Of course there are potential outcomes that don't involve a protracted conflict - a sudden outbreak of conscience in Moscow, or the collapse of the Russian Armed Forces. But I think these are, unfortunately, substantially less likely than a protracted war.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 2
John Mearsheimer's interview w/ Isaac Chotiner is...a lot.

It's so painfully evident that he has just resolutely decided not to reassess priors even as Putin's recent statements and actions and ::gestures at everything:: directly contradict his views.

newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/w…
You know, they say as you get older, you become less flexible in your thinking, but goodness - it comes across like he just didn't watch either of Putin's pre-invasion speeches or read the transcripts.
Instead he just keeps repeating that one quote from 2000 as if Putin said that yesterday and it was very probative; I mean, shoot, in 2002 Putin said Ukraine was a sovereign state and conversations about joining NATO would be "entirely appropriate."
Read 6 tweets
Mar 2
👀
It's not clear to me how accurate our information here would be, but goodness if even remotely true.

As longtime ACOUP readers know - if you don't get an army's logistics right, nothing else matters.
I don't have a primer on modern motorized logistics, but I have literally just got my copy of @BA_Friedman 's On Operations: Operational Art and Military Disciplines (2021) and as a first-entry primer, it has a lot to recommend.

I, of course, mostly look at pre-modern logistics.
One of the major differences is that almost all pre-industrial logistics is subsistence supplies (read: food, fodder and water), but as Friedman notes, modern armies that's only around 10% or so of transported logistics, with ammunition, fuel and spare parts making up the bulk.
Read 6 tweets

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