Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

A tweet thread on what a Russian 'victory' would look like, and why it is difficult to imagine unless a significant number of breaks go their way and the Ukrainian people actually dont have a lasting sense of national identity (which seems unlikely).

There has been some discussion and evidence that Russia might be recalibrating away from taking all of Ukraine (which clearly was Putin's preferred plan at the start) to now trying to annex more of Ukraine, part in the south and east.

Here is one of the best discussions of a possible Russian southern strategy aimed at taking the black sea coast.

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1500637789829754880?s=20&t=I95NLPzzLf4iac4ROe4tWg

Here is another thread which argues (in the chat part later) that Russia is doing better and will try and redraw the map of Ukraine to take more territory.

https://twitter.com/ErrantStrategry/status/1500904280034885635?s=20&t=I95NLPzzLf4iac4ROe4tWg

Certainly a move to change from a maximalist victory (all of Ukraine into Russia) into a limited victory (as much of the south coast as possible and parts of eastern Ukraine which were strongly Russian speaking in the past (Kharkiv, etc) would be more achievable militarily

The distances arent as great from Russian supply dumps, the armies are nearby and fully deployed, etc. They could play their trump card of overwhelming force to blast everything in their way. It might be militarily achievable with the original invasion force at hand.

Though it would also be horrible, requiring the wholesale bombardment and destruction of southern and eastern cities (many with strong Russian cultural roots). Indiscriminate killing of civilians would rise exponentially in the short term.

And then what? This is the tricky part. Having militarily seized parts of southern and eastern Ukraine, Putin cant just declare 'Mission Accomplished' and head home. Indeed, in many ways an even more difficult phase in the Russian invasion would start.

The sanctions will still be in place and biting. Morgan Stanley is expecting a Russian default in April.

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1501046805060018180?s=20&t=I95NLPzzLf4iac4ROe4tWg

The Ukrainian government would still be in control of approximately half of Ukraine, and the people under occupation in eastern and southern Ukraine would have had their identity strengthened and be controlled by hated occupiers.

The Russian invasion force (presumably some of the best units in the Russian Army) would be spent having suffered major losses in all categories.

If Russia unilaterally declares annexation of areas at that point, the only way to keep them is to hope that everyone else agrees, in the following three ways.

1) Having unleased a humanitarian catastrophe and destroyed the international order, that the sanctions are then dropped or lessened. If not, Russia will be left confronting a long war with a declining economy.

2) That the existing Ukrainian government would be willing to accept these wholesale land grabs and in essence make peace. Otherwise Russia still finds itself in perma-war.

3) That the Ukrainian population of the occupied territories forgets its Ukrainian identity and the fact that their friends and families have been killed in this war, and somehow accepts annexation and doesnt resist.

If all three of these things occur, then yes something akin to a Russian 'victory' might be achievable.

If these three dont happen, however, then Russia finds itself in a worse position than it is today. A collapsing economy, a war still ongoing, an insurgency it has to fight in eastern Ukraine and a terribly damaged army.

All similar situations in the past century have been catastrophic for the power in Russia's situation--and in most cases they were relatively more economically powerful than Russia. That is what I mean when I say I can see how Russia 'wins' this war.

btw, if anyone has another idea of how Russia translates the military conquest of parts of Ukraine into a victory, please do share. Maybe I am missing something.

That is what I mean when I say I can't see how Russia wins this war. Sorry

I have no idea if this is possible, it seems extremely ambitious, but it highlights what I’m trying to say about this war not being winnable for Russia. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Going into the conflict it seems that Russia expected some significant economic blowback, but not major systemic changes: and if they established facts on the ground in Ukraine the world would live with it.

Actually what is happening is that Europe is acting in such a ways that the sanctions can be maintained for a very long time if they want.

So even in a best case scenario, Russia ends up a winning some battles that are bloody messes, holds Ukrainian territory (for a while) but finds itself isolated from Europe and facing a United European front. How can that be a victory?

US about to ban all oil imports. from Russia as well. If EU really can drastically reduce consumption of Russian fuels, that makes waging a long war for Russia even more difficult

https://twitter.com/ABC7/status/1501195934180331521

Fear this is right, Putin has miscalculated, and is angry, but has no sustainable political end game. Mignt just blow things up because that’s all he can do well at this point. Horrible.

https://twitter.com/joyce_karam/status/1501219656052400133

Another tweet thread with US intelligence estimates of where things lie based on same testimonies. Sounds like they are expecting Putin to escalate, but also they don’t see how he achieves any sensible victory.

https://twitter.com/olivia_gazis/status/1501219569985372161

A bit of the point but this whole bloody fiasco proves that sometimes it really is the individual decision maker that matters, and not the state bureaucracy which we like to think can restrain or moderate behaviour.

In this case, Putin wanted the war, caused the war, and now is trying to come up with a strategy to achieve something from it. The Russian state seems merely a vehicle to amplify his thoughts and plans.