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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Mar 8 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Two different narratives emerging about the situation around Kyiv. One is that a major offensive is about to begin (as early as tonight). The other is that the city is still far from encircled and Russian troops are still not ready.
This Institute for the Study of War released yesterday says the Russians are ready to start their major assault with 24-96 hours understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Here is the @tom_bullock_ report saying that the Russians are still being held in the suburbs.
Doesnt sound like Kyiv is anywhere close to being surrounded (yet), at least according to Ukrainian reporters on the scene.
A background briefing given by a US military source sounds like the Russians are going for Kyiv, but sound like they are still a relatively long way out (and interestingly says the combat power of both the Russian and Ukrainain armies are still intact
So different pictures being constructed. An assault without surrounding Kyiv completely and pounding it with artillery would represent something different than we have seen so far, particularly as their units might not be well set up for urban warfare.
So alot of different visions.
Another pessimistic take on Russian logistics. politico.eu/article/russia…
And a more optimistic report saying that the Russians have gotten their logistics act together (based mostly on Institute of War Report). theguardian.com/world/2022/mar…

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 10
I very much understand why you might consider my position hypocritical, and respect that. And I also know many people on my Twitter feed support an immediate no-fly zone (NFZ). Might make sense to develop my thinking a little more.
The discussion of a NFZ is normally couched in terms of how Russia would respond/escalate. However the threat of a NFZ is also a way to keep Russia from escalating. That escalation could involve tactical nukes or chemical/bio weapons.
If NATO goes now for a NFZ, the Russian leadership might calculate that escalation is in their interest. That could be a stated tactical nuke in Ukraine. Would then NATO blow up the world in response? Probably not.
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 10
Some thoughts on the arguments for a no-fly zone, effective aid for the Ukrainians and air power. Been quoted a little in this article in the @WSJ (paywall) wsj.com/articles/the-w…
The question of a no-fly zone seems more one of NATO being a full scale participant in this war or not. As many of said, it leads inevitably to direct exchanges between Russia and NATO.
While I still think it very unlikely that Russia would go to full scale nuclear exchange at that point (ie end human existence), not sure we want to find out. Only thing that might change my mind on a no fly zone is a chemical/biological attack by Russia.
Read 33 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 9
If the Russians are using unguided munitions to try and take out something as small as a SAM site, they really are struggling.
You can almost tell the sense of surprise from the US spokesperson about how effective the Ukrainian air defense systems have been (or conversely how relatively ineffective the Russians have been in taking them out).
The UK MOD sounds even more bullish when it says that the Ukrainian air defense is having 'considerable success' against Russian aircraft.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 9
An excellent overview. Does Russia even enough forces to take Eastern Ukraine and hold it?
It does seem that the Russians are simultaneously trying to take on lots of different missions with only a limited supply of soldiers.
Concentrating on Kyiv, setting up supply lines back to the east to support that drive. Trying to take the city of Sumy which seems to be important to get supplies to the Kyiv operations
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 9
When one sits back and looks at what Russia/Putin has done to damage themselves in this invasion it is stunning. Maybe without parallel for a country in such a short time? All in the name of brutalizing its neighbor. The steps when you add them up are unparalleled
1) by forbidding the sale of foreign currency for SIX months, the Russian government is admitting that their own currency has no value on the open market. barrons.com/news/russia-su…
2) The Russian stock market remains closed (has anyone seen any plans for reopening?). As admission that the entire market is close to worthless. wsj.com/livecoverage/r…
Read 13 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 8
A tweet thread on what a Russian 'victory' would look like, and why it is difficult to imagine unless a significant number of breaks go their way and the Ukrainian people actually dont have a lasting sense of national identity (which seems unlikely).
There has been some discussion and evidence that Russia might be recalibrating away from taking all of Ukraine (which clearly was Putin's preferred plan at the start) to now trying to annex more of Ukraine, part in the south and east.
Here is one of the best discussions of a possible Russian southern strategy aimed at taking the black sea coast.
Read 29 tweets

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