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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Mar 9 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
When one sits back and looks at what Russia/Putin has done to damage themselves in this invasion it is stunning. Maybe without parallel for a country in such a short time? All in the name of brutalizing its neighbor. The steps when you add them up are unparalleled
1) by forbidding the sale of foreign currency for SIX months, the Russian government is admitting that their own currency has no value on the open market. barrons.com/news/russia-su…
2) The Russian stock market remains closed (has anyone seen any plans for reopening?). As admission that the entire market is close to worthless. wsj.com/livecoverage/r…
3) Major Russian companies and banks whose shares trade on stock markets outside of Russia have seen their values go to almost zero. IN many cases these shares have seen their trading suspended.
cnbc.com/2022/03/03/lon…
4) In a colossal blunder, the Russian state failed to realize that about half of all their foreign reserves were basically unconvertible as they were held outside of Russia. Maybe the single greatest loss of reserve value in history? fortune.com/2022/03/03/rus…
5) There might even be a real problem in converting the gold reserves they have in Russia into hard currency, and if they do, its hard to imagine they will get anything close to market price. uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-1…
6) At the same time the Russians have self-sabotaged maybe their greatest asset for future economic influence over Europe with the cancellation of Nord Stream 2. euroweeklynews.com/2022/03/04/aft…
7) And actually Europe and the US are putting in place plans to wean themselves off of Russian fuels almost entirely, weakening Russia as a power going further even more.
8) In some ways Russia has within two weeks transformed itself into an economic vassal of China.
9) At the same time its military has revealed major shortcomings even after spending billions and billions on modernization.
10) Germany and much of the rest of Europe have made pledges for very significant increases in their defense spending--aimed almost entirely at deterring Russia.
11) The EU seems to be taking on a greater strategic identity and NATO, which looked almost aimless only a few years ago, is more unified than it has been in decades.
I cant think of a voluntary decision taken by a state which has so damaged itself in only two weeks. Can anyone?
Something else to keep in mind

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 11
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are making some remarkable claims today about losses in the air war for the Russians yesterday. They claim 10 Russian aircraft down, 4 by SAMs, 4 by air to air, 2 by short range air defense. facebook.com/kpszsu/videos/…
At the same time they are claiming to have destroyed an entire regiment of Russian airborne forces, with all their equipment including tanks. (I dont speak Ukrainian but have received this summary from the trustworthy @TrentTelenko
These are extraordinary claims and as its war we have to take them with a grain of salt. However if they are even half correct two things seem to be happening.
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 11
An important understanding of why time is on Ukraine’s side unless Putin basically commits an entirely fresh army, which would have to start moving very soon.
If this estimate is right, the Russians have already lost 20000 to 24000 killed and wounded. This is without making many attempts to get into Ukrainian cities (which would be very bloody operations)
In the meantime, the Ukrainians have resupplies with massive amounts of the right weaponry to cause massive more casualties if the Russians do move into cities (or indeed move almost anywhere in the open)
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 10
The Institute for the Study of War has written a noteworthy and commendable update. Now the Ukrainian Army might 'fight to a standstill' the Russian forces trying to encircle Kyiv. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
The Russian Army is not learning lessons, is still having trouble resupplying and the overall Russian performance is 'questionable'. Image
My impression, as a non-expert on the Russian Army, is that a real problem they are facing is a lack of motivation in their soldiers. The Russians seem hesitant, slow to act, rely on firepower, and actually not interested in fighting.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 10
I very much understand why you might consider my position hypocritical, and respect that. And I also know many people on my Twitter feed support an immediate no-fly zone (NFZ). Might make sense to develop my thinking a little more.
The discussion of a NFZ is normally couched in terms of how Russia would respond/escalate. However the threat of a NFZ is also a way to keep Russia from escalating. That escalation could involve tactical nukes or chemical/bio weapons.
If NATO goes now for a NFZ, the Russian leadership might calculate that escalation is in their interest. That could be a stated tactical nuke in Ukraine. Would then NATO blow up the world in response? Probably not.
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 10
Some thoughts on the arguments for a no-fly zone, effective aid for the Ukrainians and air power. Been quoted a little in this article in the @WSJ (paywall) wsj.com/articles/the-w…
The question of a no-fly zone seems more one of NATO being a full scale participant in this war or not. As many of said, it leads inevitably to direct exchanges between Russia and NATO.
While I still think it very unlikely that Russia would go to full scale nuclear exchange at that point (ie end human existence), not sure we want to find out. Only thing that might change my mind on a no fly zone is a chemical/biological attack by Russia.
Read 33 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 9
If the Russians are using unguided munitions to try and take out something as small as a SAM site, they really are struggling.
You can almost tell the sense of surprise from the US spokesperson about how effective the Ukrainian air defense systems have been (or conversely how relatively ineffective the Russians have been in taking them out).
The UK MOD sounds even more bullish when it says that the Ukrainian air defense is having 'considerable success' against Russian aircraft.
Read 4 tweets

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