Wednesday thread on the war in Ukraine. Usually get to this earlier in the day, but had competing assignments today.
Major takeaways from a couple of Pentagon briefings:
In a morning background briefing, a senior U.S. defense official said the Pentagon now assesses that Russia is using "dumb bombs." It marks another example of how they're indiscriminately attacking people in Ukraine.
Right on cue, the images of today's hospital bombing in Mariupol flashed. The senior defense official said they did not yet have an assessment.
The Russians have made some progress toward Kharkiv, the senior U.S. defense official said. "They gained about 20 kilometers over the last 24 hours in terms of proximity."
The situation around Kyiv was the same today. Russians are still stalled near the airport north of the city. Other Russians are attempting to advance from other directions. The city still holds.
Russians are making some progress near the southern city of Mykolaiv, too, the senior U.S. defense official said.
"We estimate that they're about 15 kilometers away, but to the north of Mykolaiv, and they have increased their shelling of the city," he added.
As of Wednesday, the Russians had launched 710 missiles at Ukraine since the start of the invasion two weeks ago. That number continues to climb by a few dozen per day.
Patriot missile batteries have been repositioned in Poland, the senior defense official said. That move was announced Tuesday night, so done deal there. The units are designed to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles.
There was also an on-the-record briefing with @PentagonPresSec this afternoon. Good coverage of that from @karoun here:
Despite risks, U.S. veterans reckon with joining Ukrainian war effort
In which me, @AlexHortonTX@phscoop and @JHBaran put heads together and try to make sense of who's among the Americans heading to the war against Russia without U.S. approval.
We found several kinds of participants. Many want nothing to do with combat in this war, but want to help. Others are spoiling to join the Ukrainians in taking on the Russians directly.
One of the individuals we talked to is Angel Raymond Luna, 30, arrested late last month in D.C. outside the Ukrainian embassy with weapons. He'd draped himself in the American flag and stood at attention outside in his body armor. Drew police attention nearly immediately.
The Thursday background briefing at the Pentagon about the war in Ukraine has concluded. It’s Day 15.
Some takeaways:
Yesterday, there was a great deal of focus on the U.S. scuttling a Polish proposal to send MiG-29 jets to Ukraine via U.S. officials in exchange for the United State sending Poland some F-16s. It’s seen as high-risk with limited value in the Pentagon’s eyes.
Today, the senior U.S. defense official briefing reporters said the U.S. *is* considering sending other sophisticated weapons, including air-defense weapons that are more significant than MANPADS. That means something better than a Stinger missile.
Today's Ukraine thread begins w/ a story: A U.S. general assessed today that 2,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers have died since the invasion of Ukraine began.
That came up a bit later during background briefing w/ a senior U.S. defense official.
The number is based on imperfect information, prompting Lt. Gen. Berrier, the director at DIA, to say he has "low confidence" in the number. Still, it's the best estimate the U.S. appears to have.
The senior U.S. defense official said Berrier did "the best he could" to answer.
In today's Pentagon briefing, many details sound reasonably stagnant. Bombardments continue. The convoy north of Kyiv is still stalled beginning at Hostomel airport. And the Russians continue to have a bit more success in southern Ukraine.
A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official for Monday about the war in Ukraine has concluded.
Some takeaways:
The Pentagon has seen evidence that Russia is trying to recruit Syrians to fight on their behalf in Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says. That matches a @WSJ scoop from last night.
The Pentagon now assesses that nearly 100 percent of the Russian combat power prestaged at the Ukrainian border are now committed to the fight, a senior U.S. defense official says.
A senior U.S. defense official just released an updated assessment of the war in Ukraine as of early Sunday evening in Washington. Basic updates:
"We’ve observed limited changes on the ground over the past day. Russian forces continued efforts to advance and isolate Kyiv, Kharkhiv and Chernihiv across the north and east are being met with strong Ukrainian resistance."
"There does not appear to be any significant movement along the Russian axes. Leading elements remain outside these city centers. We cannot give specific distances today.