1/16
The Jubaland issue has geopolitical and local-level conflicts during the 17 September agreement era.
Nothing changed, and here is the tally.
The country to country-level: the impasse at Jubbaland...
2/16
existed between #Somalia and #Kenya since Kenya's unilateral invention to Somalia, aka "Operation Linda Nchi." It also affects superpowers courting HoA and regional interests. This might be the reason why many #Somalis lost their confidence with the likes of @KFosterFCDO.
3/16
On the face of it, by using current #Jubbaland admin as a fig leaf, #Kenya pursued "off-shore oil and gas deposits …harvesting and export of charcoal have become a particularly lucrative industry (which the] UNSC resolution 2036 (2012" banned trading it (see the link 👇).
4/16
Like #TPLF#Ethiopia, #Kenya sought to create "a buffer zone to [protect] massive Lamu port development project; secure access to the Kismayo market; and influence over oil and gas deposits in a contested maritime zone." crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
5/16
In contrast, by 1 March 2013, Somalia declared that both the process and outcome of the new Jubbaland administration's approach and product were unconstitutional. issafrica.org/iss-today/tens….
6/16 @HassanSMohamud felt the fear from Kenya as the election time was nearing and thus compromised by conceding on the terms of #TPLF, #Kenya and Madobe's Raaskaambooni without conferring the other parts of the conflict. newstatesman.com/world/2013/09/…
7/16
Kenya's egotism was exacerbated when Farmaajo insisted against Uhuru's call of resolving the maritime case outside the ICJ. Hence, ever since, the relationship between the neighbours was not good. theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-…
8/16
As Kenya/Madobe marriage won against @HassanSMohamud in JL. Except for Janan, they fixed weaklings from Gedo, i.e. @JustAwhirsi, Abdi Shire, Ina Geeda Qoroow, Ina Oogle and alike who lacked legitimacy and capacity and could not breach conflicts between the sides.
9/16
The gridlock also has clan-related rivals that began when Kenya installed Madobe. Kenya was not only his firepower but the mouthpiece & blindfolded the world by tainting the Marehan clan synonym with Alshabaab (AS). A label @Harunmaruf and alike used for El-Adde as AS Town.
10/16
Ironically, even though AS controls many districts in the country, none of the Marehan districts it contains fully. But, through Madobe, Kenya becomes the world's eyes and ears. Look at the paper below 👇theguardian.com/world/2012/sep….
11/16
Now, Jubbaland statehouse set a fine-tune of good news about the #Gedo section on Wednesday (tomorrow) to its supports. Perhaps a hope to divert from Gedo hosting the (s)election to elsewhere.
12/16
The celebratory note seemed to be collaborating with PM Rooble's anticipatory attempt to sway the seats to whom he wants. But the plan lacks a way out as it is enshrined by the 17 September 2020 agreement.
13/16
Hang on! One could argue that the PM has appointed a fact-finding committee to assess whether Gedo can host the (s)elections security-wise. Oops! That also does not have any significance, and here is why.
14/16
The committee lacked legitimacy because no FIET, SIET, or conflict resolution was involved. They also lack the endorsement of the subjects (Gedo's) and stakeholders. Worse of all, #Gedo people refused their legitimacy, and any unilateral decision they made lacks validity.
15/16
Plus, the 17 September 2020 was an accord agreed by different stakeholders. Therefore, altering principle articles requires the consent of all parties. And, the rift between Garbaharrey and Kismaayo existed at the time of the agreement. The condition is the same.
For good or bad, Robert Oakley, the UNOSOM head in 1992, dragged the UN into the Somalia conflict. By din of the current political impasse, the UNSRSG of Somalia, Mr Swan, seem to be proposing similar dilemmas. Unless diverted, the result can be as the preceding history. 1/15
On 28 June 2020, the head of the Electoral Commission (NIEC), Halima Ibrahim, asked the parliament three (manual) or nine months (biometric) more months to proceed with the MPs elections expected at the end of 2020, which was a precursor of the presidential election. 2/15
At the time, an electoral law based on first-the-past-post participation among political parties and party's laws was in place. 3/15
2/ Alex de Waal: conversed how these countries lacked lockdown strategies and how they cannot control the pandemic. Hang-on, that was the feeling of everybody! He added ‘their’ lockdown was politically motivated:
3/ ...authorities wanted to achieve specific goals while disguising under WHO’s guidelines. However, he did not elaborate on what, how or why. Amid the audiences were waiting for explanations, he began comparing incomparable: nobody would expect the likes of