Dan Lamothe Profile picture
Mar 11 16 tweets 3 min read
A Friday background briefing at the Pentagon about the war on Ukraine has concluded.

Some notable details ahead:
First, going to flag two stories I'm involved in that we published this morning.

The first explores the scenario under which Americans are going to join the Ukrainian war effort:

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
The second details Russian military losses to the extent we can, and what it all means:

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
On to the briefing. No major changes on battlefield. Mariupol and other major cities are getting pummeled. Fierce ground fighting in several areas, too.
On Thursday, the Pentagon indicated the long-stalled Russian ground convoy north of Kyiv had moved from about 12 miles outside the city center to nine miles away.

No change to that Friday, though there is some movement within the column.
New nugget from Pentagon: A senior U.S. defense official says today that some vehicles in the stalled Russian convoy north of Kyiv have been pulled off the road and into tree lines, an effort to disguise them and hide them from attack.
In light of questions around chemical-biological issues in Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says the Pentagon has not sent protective gear for that to the Ukrainians. Also not aware of a request for it.
The senior U.S. defense official said Ukraine still has 56 operational jets in its arsenal and has been flying them just five to 10 hours per day. Points to that as one reason the Polish proposal to send Polish MiG-29 jets to Ukraine by way of the U.S. government was scuttled.
The Russian military, by comparison, has been flying about 200 sorties per day, senior U.S. defense official says. Some do not cross into Ukraine, he added, noting the Russians can fire aerial-mounted cruise missiles from planes at Ukraine from the Russian side of the border.
As of Friday, the Pentagon assesses that Russia has launched “nearly 810” missiles at Ukraine since invasion day. “The majority, nearly 400 of these missile strikes,” have been launched from Russian launchers in Ukraine.
Russia still has about 90 percent of the combat power it had arrayed at the Ukrainian border prior to invasion available to them for use, senior U.S. defense official says, indicating thousands of soldiers are dead, wounded or captured.
Ukraine has “a tad more” than 90 percent of its combat forces available, same U.S. defense official says. Important note: Its military is significantly smaller.
Pentagon is aware of Russian rhetoric that they want to recruit 16K foreign fighters from the Middle East to fight in Ukraine. Some efforts are being made in Syria, but it’s unclear if recruiting goes beyond Syria or if they are having success, senior U.S. defense official says.
No additional weapons systems to announce going to Ukraine. Arms deliveries to the Ukrainians continue, defense official says.
. @PentagonPresSec is expected to brief on the record shortly. It'll be streamed here. I'm not threading it. Need to write now and it's more widely available than the backgrounder.

Back to work.

defense.gov/News/Live-Even…
NEW: Here's tonight's story.

Pentagon explores sending Ukraine more advanced weapons after scuttling Polish jet deal

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

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More from @DanLamothe

Mar 11
Despite risks, U.S. veterans reckon with joining Ukrainian war effort

In which me, @AlexHortonTX @phscoop and @JHBaran put heads together and try to make sense of who's among the Americans heading to the war against Russia without U.S. approval.

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
We found several kinds of participants. Many want nothing to do with combat in this war, but want to help. Others are spoiling to join the Ukrainians in taking on the Russians directly.
One of the individuals we talked to is Angel Raymond Luna, 30, arrested late last month in D.C. outside the Ukrainian embassy with weapons. He'd draped himself in the American flag and stood at attention outside in his body armor. Drew police attention nearly immediately.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 10
The Thursday background briefing at the Pentagon about the war in Ukraine has concluded. It’s Day 15.

Some takeaways:
Yesterday, there was a great deal of focus on the U.S. scuttling a Polish proposal to send MiG-29 jets to Ukraine via U.S. officials in exchange for the United State sending Poland some F-16s. It’s seen as high-risk with limited value in the Pentagon’s eyes.
Today, the senior U.S. defense official briefing reporters said the U.S. *is* considering sending other sophisticated weapons, including air-defense weapons that are more significant than MANPADS. That means something better than a Stinger missile.
Read 13 tweets
Mar 10
Wednesday thread on the war in Ukraine. Usually get to this earlier in the day, but had competing assignments today.

Major takeaways from a couple of Pentagon briefings:
In a morning background briefing, a senior U.S. defense official said the Pentagon now assesses that Russia is using "dumb bombs." It marks another example of how they're indiscriminately attacking people in Ukraine.
Right on cue, the images of today's hospital bombing in Mariupol flashed. The senior defense official said they did not yet have an assessment.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 8
Today's Ukraine thread begins w/ a story: A U.S. general assessed today that 2,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers have died since the invasion of Ukraine began.

That came up a bit later during background briefing w/ a senior U.S. defense official.

Takeaways:

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
The number is based on imperfect information, prompting Lt. Gen. Berrier, the director at DIA, to say he has "low confidence" in the number. Still, it's the best estimate the U.S. appears to have.

The senior U.S. defense official said Berrier did "the best he could" to answer.
In today's Pentagon briefing, many details sound reasonably stagnant. Bombardments continue. The convoy north of Kyiv is still stalled beginning at Hostomel airport. And the Russians continue to have a bit more success in southern Ukraine.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 7
A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official for Monday about the war in Ukraine has concluded.

Some takeaways:
The Pentagon has seen evidence that Russia is trying to recruit Syrians to fight on their behalf in Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says. That matches a @WSJ scoop from last night.
The Pentagon now assesses that nearly 100 percent of the Russian combat power prestaged at the Ukrainian border are now committed to the fight, a senior U.S. defense official says.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 6
A senior U.S. defense official just released an updated assessment of the war in Ukraine as of early Sunday evening in Washington. Basic updates:
"We’ve observed limited changes on the ground over the past day. Russian forces continued efforts to advance and isolate Kyiv, Kharkhiv and Chernihiv across the north and east are being met with strong Ukrainian resistance."
"There does not appear to be any significant movement along the Russian axes. Leading elements remain outside these city centers. We cannot give specific distances today.

"The convoy continues to be stalled."
Read 18 tweets

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