Fresh portion of Valdai delusions. But with an interesting twist - "China will need Russia's help soon, we need to stay strong for that". Thread 1/9
In his new "5-minutes of hate" piece Timofei Bordachev welcomes the opportunities that new "iron curtain" brings Russia, comparing 2022 to 1917. Because 1917 allowed to "get social mobility going and created a more just society"...okaaaay 2/9
The "Economic and humanitarian war of the West" -
(yes, Russia is the victim today) will give Russia an opportunity to be a force of its own. Russia is departing from its dependence on West that was harmful and is now open to new horizons 3/9
Bordachev says what is happening today is West's attempt to force Russia to realize that there is no life for Russia without the West. But it is possible, he says.
Bordachev urges Moscow not to attempt to supplement ties with West with ties with China 4/9
Asserts that Russia needs to stand its ground and not run an autarky here because China won't respect that and we need China to respect us. Says Beijing will need Russia's help very soon now. 5/9
Bordachev says the sky is the limit and Russia's now deprived of Western bad influence can reach new heights in science and technology. Russia is not going to become another Iran or North Korea, he claims. 6/9
He recognizes that this moment is hard but it is a necessary transition that will make Russia more prepared for the future. 7/9
So, why am I even bothering posting this delusional stuff here? Well, it does represent what Putin essentially thinks, give or take. All key features are here - the rest is the style of the artist. 8/9
I seem to be coming back to Q of whether they are insane-ish or just their optics is so off and they are miscalculating by so much it seems crazy. This is an important question. I don't know.
I can see both being possible at the same time though. 9/9
profile.ru/columnist/deto…

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More from @ABarbashin

Mar 8
Based on conversations with people living in Moscow, Sankt-Petersburg and Novosibirsk it would seem that aside from groups 60 and older the majority of people are starting to get the situation.
No, it is not what you might expect. Will try to get a few quotes here 1/8
"This is of course, war. We don't know what the end goal is. But it would seem Putin has departed from reality."
"Most people supported independence for DNR/LNR, what came the next is too much and is scary" 2/8
"Russia is probably doomed, we get it. It will get tremendously worse. But I don't want to spend the next few years in jail."
"Even if Putin "wins", sanctions will stay. We are ruined." 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Mar 7
How will #sanctions hammer Russian economy? Thread based on insightful @maria_shagina piece for @RiddleRussia
"Unwilling to counter Russia’s atrocities in Ukraine with direct military involvement, the West has opted to wage all out financial warfare" 1/8
ridl.io/en/an-unpreced…
First, we should note the unprecedented unity and speed of sanctions introduced. If in previous confrontation cycles it took ages for EU to get sanctions agenda agreed now it is extremely fast. Also, new nations join unified sanctions front - Singapore, Switzerland and Korea 2/8
First tool is the full blocking sanctions for state-owned second-largest bank VTB and a handful of other financial institutions (Sovcombank, Otkritie and Novicombank). US and UK also prohibited any dollar and sterling transactions for Russia's largest Sberbank 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Mar 4
How Russia covered the war in Ukraine from day one to today. The level of "reality fabrication" here is unbelievable and only matched by state's resolve to punish those who protest war. Based on this long-read by @IrisovaOlga for @RiddleRussia
ridl.io/en/the-russian…
Thread 1/9
There are 5 major narratives that have been pushed by Kremlin propaganda since the war began.
1st narrative - "The West provoked Russia"
Operation in Ukraine is presented as a matter of "life and death" for Russian people, state and sovereignty 2/9
For 8 years the US has invested in creating a hostile state out of Ukraine, Biden torpedoed every attempt at diplomacy. Ukraine aims for nuclear arms, US aims to use Ukraine to attack Russia. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Mar 2
Russia foreign policy experts keep at it. Bordachev here claims that Russia’s main mistake was miscalculating Biden’s interest in Europe. Simply speaking they thought he would agree on smth to keep China on the agenda before Europe 1/4
He claims that smart Americans basically dragged EU into a conflict with Russia that EU would be paying for by integrating Ukraine and generally carrying all the losses. While US only gains weight. 2/4
He says Russia has two options now - if Kremlin believes it can scare US straight with Cuban crisis 2.0., it should keep going and raise the stakes; if Moscow believes that Biden is not going to bite, better leave Ukraine bleeding like it is. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Mar 2
For the past decade and a half Russia was preaching first and by most to itself that the so-called #multipolar world is coming. And it’s going to change everything in favour of the non-West. Thread 1/7
It’s basic idea was that more powers across the globe should be involved in decision making (G20) and economic might should convert in political power (India, China) and some power like Russia just have to be centres of power (nukes+legacy) 2/7
Despite repeated attempts there was never an abundance of interest in this concept and it was mostly Russia that kept preaching the coming of this new multipolar order. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Feb 28
Thread on Russian war in Ukraine:
Kremlin's posture and messaging, Russian domestic reaction.
What could be expected and what could be done
1/14
It is much clearer now that diplomacy was not consider as primary objective for resolving Putin's demands towards NATO and Ukraine for a while. Maybe months, maybe even for a few years.
RU MFA was purposefully giving military the time to go ahead with preparations. 2/14
Was there a chance diplomacy could have worked? Hypothetically but unlikely judging by how things are going now. Long story short the party of "constructive destruction" convinced Putin that war is the best option and it makes no sense to postpone for later. 3/14
Read 14 tweets

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