Thread by @ABarbashin

Thread on Russian war in Ukraine:
Kremlin's posture and messaging, Russian domestic reaction.
What could be expected and what could be done
1/14

It is much clearer now that diplomacy was not consider as primary objective for resolving Putin's demands towards NATO and Ukraine for a while. Maybe months, maybe even for a few years.
RU MFA was purposefully giving military the time to go ahead with preparations. 2/14

Was there a chance diplomacy could have worked? Hypothetically but unlikely judging by how things are going now. Long story short the party of "constructive destruction" convinced Putin that war is the best option and it makes no sense to postpone for later. 3/14

It is clear that Putin expected a short campaign, little to no citizens engagement, shock from initial attack and general loss of military coordination. None of that happened. Ukrainians fight as an army and as a nation 4/14

This has to break Putin's perception of reality since he most likely believed that Ukraine is a hostage to foreign and nationalist forces. Perhaps he thinks his slow advance in Ukraine is due to western efforts, thus the "nuclear threat" 5/14

I wouldn't bet on him suddenly realizing that Ukraine is a nation that doesn't want his "liberation". That his calculus is wrong
Clearly, 5 days in, we see no intent from the Russian side to stop it - moreover, it is getter much dirtier (Kharkiv) 6/14

From the posture at home - with propaganda on steroids and total lack of hints at readiness to calm the rocket launchers, we can only expect escalation for the foreseeable future 7/14

Putin also has completely misread Russian public reaction - we have daily protests across over dozen major cities. Yes, number are not in 100s of thousands but with over 6000 detained already and draconic protesting laws, it counts for something. 8/14

Majority of Russian are still fed a very distorted picture of what is happening in Ukraine. Kremlin is actively enforcing censorship, shuts down individual media, slows down social networks and considers adopting new draconic treason laws right now. 9/14

Some within the elite show disagreements, mostly oligarchs; there are number of protest list from stand up comedians, universities and other professional organizations. All of it is being ignored by the Kremlin with individual repressions of dissent. 10/14

Economic sanctions are above anything that was anticipated. So far no one is capable of putting it all down in the same list to begin to assess how hard this hit is. But it seems hard and the pain will be felt soon.
Q is - how soon? And how long can Ukraine stand? 11/14

Time is on Ukraine's side. The longer they stay more chances, Putin will have to call it over. But there is no easy way for him to do this because this is likely the end of him. I have no answer to what comes next.
Russians need to show more and more that this goes against 12/14

their will and they aren't ready to tolerate this government. Problem is - several hundred thousands of Russians that would've protested now are already out of Russia (yes, Kremlin was thinking ahead).
Spread information, use every tool possible - break propaganda wall 13/14

As an international community we need to do more to reach Russians on their Instagram, YouTube and Tik Tok. So by the time the chance for a change presents itself - they know what was happening and who is responsible.
We need to antiwar coalition in Russia
14/14