How Russia covered the war in Ukraine from day one to today. The level of "reality fabrication" here is unbelievable and only matched by state's resolve to punish those who protest war. Based on this long-read by @IrisovaOlga for @RiddleRussia ridl.io/en/the-russian…
Thread 1/9
There are 5 major narratives that have been pushed by Kremlin propaganda since the war began.
1st narrative - "The West provoked Russia"
Operation in Ukraine is presented as a matter of "life and death" for Russian people, state and sovereignty 2/9
For 8 years the US has invested in creating a hostile state out of Ukraine, Biden torpedoed every attempt at diplomacy. Ukraine aims for nuclear arms, US aims to use Ukraine to attack Russia. 3/9
2nd narrative «Noble» Russian «liberators» vs. Ukrainian «treacherous nationalists»
RU do not attack cities, only liberate. Ukrainians are ready to kill their own to set up Russia, they kill their own who is not ready to fight. They are Nazi fanatics and are barely human 4/9
3rd narrative «Genocide of the Russian-speaking population»
Ukrainian Nazi's aim is genocide of Russians, torture and killings. For 8 years they suffered like under the Nazi occupation during WWII - now Russia comes to liberate Ukraine from Nazism. It's almost 1945.
5/9
4th narrative "Ukrainian military surrender en masse".
Ukrainian army does not want to fight - they surrender in great numbers and we send them back home to their families. Ukrainian army is demoralized and shocked.
6/9
5th narrative "An information war is being waged against Russia"
Ukraine is staging everything, recording videos of "alleged" hostilities. It's all fabricated. West is endorsing Ukraine's lies, paying millions of $ to promote it. Russians who repeat those lies - are enemies 7/9
"From February 24 to March 2, Channel One news showed neither footage of cities bombed by Russian military, nor footage of soldiers killed, nor anti-war demonstrations taking place around world. They did not show appeals to the Russians of the leaders of Western countries" 8/9
Russians that report alternative view are being shut down and addressed by the police, those who protest detained and persecuted. We have a new fat stack of legal tool to prosecute for even hinting that Russian state might be wrong. 9/9
Check the details ridl.io/en/the-russian…
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Russia foreign policy experts keep at it. Bordachev here claims that Russia’s main mistake was miscalculating Biden’s interest in Europe. Simply speaking they thought he would agree on smth to keep China on the agenda before Europe 1/4
He claims that smart Americans basically dragged EU into a conflict with Russia that EU would be paying for by integrating Ukraine and generally carrying all the losses. While US only gains weight. 2/4
He says Russia has two options now - if Kremlin believes it can scare US straight with Cuban crisis 2.0., it should keep going and raise the stakes; if Moscow believes that Biden is not going to bite, better leave Ukraine bleeding like it is. 3/4
For the past decade and a half Russia was preaching first and by most to itself that the so-called #multipolar world is coming. And it’s going to change everything in favour of the non-West. Thread 1/7
It’s basic idea was that more powers across the globe should be involved in decision making (G20) and economic might should convert in political power (India, China) and some power like Russia just have to be centres of power (nukes+legacy) 2/7
Despite repeated attempts there was never an abundance of interest in this concept and it was mostly Russia that kept preaching the coming of this new multipolar order. 3/7
Thread on Russian war in Ukraine:
Kremlin's posture and messaging, Russian domestic reaction.
What could be expected and what could be done
1/14
It is much clearer now that diplomacy was not consider as primary objective for resolving Putin's demands towards NATO and Ukraine for a while. Maybe months, maybe even for a few years.
RU MFA was purposefully giving military the time to go ahead with preparations. 2/14
Was there a chance diplomacy could have worked? Hypothetically but unlikely judging by how things are going now. Long story short the party of "constructive destruction" convinced Putin that war is the best option and it makes no sense to postpone for later. 3/14
New Russian FP thinking is triumphing. It started taking root in 2014 and now it is finally celebrating its first major act - war on Ukraine.
Thread 1/5
One of the leading Valdai Club guys congratulates us with Russia's finally parting with Western centric world and starting its own journey.
He says for decades Russia used diplomacy but always failed since West didn't listen 2/5
He claims some time will pass and things will come down and Ukraine will be demilitarized and will get a new government and alike Belarus become Russia's close ally. Says if US attempts to increase military presence in CEE - Russia will respond and discourage. 3/5
1/13 Thread on Russian reaction to #war with Ukraine
For years Russian legal and political system has been repressing the most active civic society leaders, those capable of gathering support for street activity. State adapted multitude of laws that penalize protests of any kind
Despite all that (details below) we are seeing massive protests all across the country for the second day in the row. That is both inspiring and astonishing. I would like this to be known and reported. That Russians showed their disagreement with what Putin does to Ukraine. 2/13
Here is a good explainer to what was done in 2021 alone in terms of adapting political system to a more war-like authoritarian rail ridl.io/en/one-year-in…
With first and by most elimination of the main opposition force - Navalny and his organization 3/13
My take for @RiddleRussia with a few takeaways on why February 21st will mark a new reality for Russian foreign policy for at least the next decade. Thread 1/7 ridl.io/en/putin-in-th…
The entire show: from Security Council meeting to Putin's speech to signing the documents was unprecedented. The level of humiliation of Putin's boyars and degree of his conspiracy theory driven motivation behind Russian FP stance is a new high 2/7
No longer can any Russian argue for a "smart" realpolitik justification or some other civilized version of Putin's actions: he made it clear it was about him not recognizing Ukraine and believing US wants to destroy Russia. 3/7