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Anton Barbashin Profile picture
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Mar 2 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Russia foreign policy experts keep at it. Bordachev here claims that Russia’s main mistake was miscalculating Biden’s interest in Europe. Simply speaking they thought he would agree on smth to keep China on the agenda before Europe 1/4
He claims that smart Americans basically dragged EU into a conflict with Russia that EU would be paying for by integrating Ukraine and generally carrying all the losses. While US only gains weight. 2/4
He says Russia has two options now - if Kremlin believes it can scare US straight with Cuban crisis 2.0., it should keep going and raise the stakes; if Moscow believes that Biden is not going to bite, better leave Ukraine bleeding like it is. 3/4
Because, as he claims that is what the Americans want: to use Ukraine to make Russia fight EU.
Comment: this is beyond anything that a sane man could have produced. But it only confirms how badly Moscow miscalculated the situation. 4/4
profile.ru/columnist/vojn…

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More from @ABarbashin

Anton Barbashin Profile picture
Mar 2
For the past decade and a half Russia was preaching first and by most to itself that the so-called #multipolar world is coming. And it’s going to change everything in favour of the non-West. Thread 1/7
It’s basic idea was that more powers across the globe should be involved in decision making (G20) and economic might should convert in political power (India, China) and some power like Russia just have to be centres of power (nukes+legacy) 2/7
Despite repeated attempts there was never an abundance of interest in this concept and it was mostly Russia that kept preaching the coming of this new multipolar order. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Anton Barbashin Profile picture
Feb 28
Thread on Russian war in Ukraine:
Kremlin's posture and messaging, Russian domestic reaction.
What could be expected and what could be done
1/14
It is much clearer now that diplomacy was not consider as primary objective for resolving Putin's demands towards NATO and Ukraine for a while. Maybe months, maybe even for a few years.
RU MFA was purposefully giving military the time to go ahead with preparations. 2/14
Was there a chance diplomacy could have worked? Hypothetically but unlikely judging by how things are going now. Long story short the party of "constructive destruction" convinced Putin that war is the best option and it makes no sense to postpone for later. 3/14
Read 14 tweets
Anton Barbashin Profile picture
Feb 25
New Russian FP thinking is triumphing. It started taking root in 2014 and now it is finally celebrating its first major act - war on Ukraine.
Thread 1/5
One of the leading Valdai Club guys congratulates us with Russia's finally parting with Western centric world and starting its own journey.
He says for decades Russia used diplomacy but always failed since West didn't listen 2/5
He claims some time will pass and things will come down and Ukraine will be demilitarized and will get a new government and alike Belarus become Russia's close ally. Says if US attempts to increase military presence in CEE - Russia will respond and discourage. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Anton Barbashin Profile picture
Feb 25
1/13 Thread on Russian reaction to #war with Ukraine
For years Russian legal and political system has been repressing the most active civic society leaders, those capable of gathering support for street activity. State adapted multitude of laws that penalize protests of any kind
Despite all that (details below) we are seeing massive protests all across the country for the second day in the row. That is both inspiring and astonishing. I would like this to be known and reported. That Russians showed their disagreement with what Putin does to Ukraine. 2/13
Here is a good explainer to what was done in 2021 alone in terms of adapting political system to a more war-like authoritarian rail
ridl.io/en/one-year-in…
With first and by most elimination of the main opposition force - Navalny and his organization 3/13
Read 13 tweets
Anton Barbashin Profile picture
Feb 22
My take for @RiddleRussia with a few takeaways on why February 21st will mark a new reality for Russian foreign policy for at least the next decade. Thread 1/7
ridl.io/en/putin-in-th…
The entire show: from Security Council meeting to Putin's speech to signing the documents was unprecedented. The level of humiliation of Putin's boyars and degree of his conspiracy theory driven motivation behind Russian FP stance is a new high 2/7
No longer can any Russian argue for a "smart" realpolitik justification or some other civilized version of Putin's actions: he made it clear it was about him not recognizing Ukraine and believing US wants to destroy Russia. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Anton Barbashin Profile picture
Feb 20
While were are watching Ukraine, Russia has de-facto established permanent military presence in #Belarus.
Based on this @pavel_luzin for @RiddleRussia
Thread 1/8
ridl.io/en/military-in…
It seems Lukashenka still denies Russia a permanent military base but Russia is becoming more flexible. The ‘Union Resolve 2022′ is technically not an exercise by "test of the Union State’s response force". Regular Zapad Exercise are announced well in advance - this was just 2/8
announced 3 weeks before the start. Regular exercise count from 2500-3000 Russian participants, now the estimations go as high as 30,000. More conservatives estimates give 5k-7k personnel.
3/8
Read 8 tweets

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