On a less serious note: really enjoying Elden Ring - not super far in yet (just did the Glintstone Dragon - that fight was wild and fun).

The range of apparently fully viable playstyles - melee, ranged, magic, etc. is really neat.
My one tip for getting through a FromSoft game is this: use the co-op system.

Now, I am stubborn, I insist on beating all bosses solo. Have since DS1. So instead I use the co-op system to scout the bosses before risking my runes/souls/whatever.
Especially for bosses without a convenient site-of-grace, putting a gold summon right in front of the boss door can get you a bunch of fairly rapid tries at the boss to learn move sets and patterns, again without risking your runes.
And you are, in theory, helping out folks who are struggling with the same fight at the same time, so you can get a warm fuzzy feeling of being a helpful player.

Also, it's sometimes easier to get a full picture of the attacks when they're not aimed at you.
But also, if you are well and truly stuck...use the co-op system. Fights get a LOT easier when the boss has multiple targets, which lets you back off and get space to heal, cast, etc.

Sure you can use summons, but obviously a full on other player is the best summon.

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More from @BretDevereaux

Mar 12
One of the arguments I'm seeing essentially amounts to "why doesn't NATO just act like Putin - just flagrantly lie, ignore potential Russian escalation and act crazy and unpredictable."

And the answer is, "because we're not Russia and operate under different constraints." 1/
That's not, "we have to be the good guys" or "we have to be rational because Putin isn't" or anything like that.

We have different systems of government that operate under different ideologies with different processes and that imposes different constraints. 2/
So why not lie a bunch and threaten crazy things?

Putin can do this because he is an autocrat whose support relies on just a handful of key supporters. He can lie to everyone else, including his own people, and remain in power. 3/
Read 16 tweets
Mar 9
Seeing a lot of chatter about Ukraine needing to 'prepare for insurgency' but also that they can't do insurgency.

And I think this is a definition problem because depending on how your define insurgency, Ukraine is either 1) already doing it or 2) probably won't ever do it.

1/
If what you are expecting by 'insurgency' is something that looks like AQI in 2006 or the Taliben in 2011, that's unlikely to happen for the simple reason that the Ukrainian army still exists and as a result Ukraine has other options to resist with. 2/
As I've noted elsewhere, insurgency in this sense - operating in territory the enemy controls (rather than just moves through) using the population as covering terrain without the support of a conventional military - that sort of insurgency is a hard way to fight. 3/
Read 17 tweets
Mar 9
People need to prepare themselves for what the end of hostilities in Ukraine might look like, though it doesn't seem imminent.

Because peace agreements are rarely clear, clean things AND also because folks need to be prepared for NATO and Ukrainian interests to diverge. 1/
Ending a conflict like this one - especially in a shorter time-scale - is likely to involve messy compromises. A truly protracted war might have a clearer, cleaner ending, but involve much more death and destruction, as we've discussed: acoup.blog/2022/03/03/col…
2/
I think regime change in Kyiv is, at this point, an unlikely outcome; I don't think Russia has the juice for it. Instead, negotiations seem to revolve around the Donbas, Crimea, and Ukraine's joining the EU and NATO.

There are lots of possible combinations in that space. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Mar 8
It seems relevant to point out that the Russian strategy of fostering 'frozen conflicts' in Georgia, Moldova and Azerbaijan create a number of crisis points where, if Russian state backing suddenly evaporated, we could see hostilities reignite.
By contrast a lot of comments in the original thread are focusing on things that only happen in Risk games (China invading Siberia).

But imagine there are discussions right now in Chisinau, Tbilisi and Baku trying to figure out what Russian success OR failure means for them.
Though I wouldn't expect this to 'save' Ukraine or anything like it; I doubt anyone will jump until they're sure which way the wind blows. More likely that Russian failure in Ukraine, if dramatic enough, may trigger a series of 'Ukraine War Afterparties' as Russian power recedes.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 7
You know it is the most trite thing, but the thing that keeps popping into my head watching the ramshackle Russian operations in Ukraine is that scene in Kingdom of Heaven where Saladin patiently explains to his subordinate how battles are won.
"...battles are determined by God, but also by preparation, numbers, absence of disease and availability of water. One cannot maintain a siege with the enemy behind."

That last line could be the caption to every photo of a burned out Russian truck.
Of course that line is a bit funny in context because at Acre in 1191 the crusaders absolutely did maintain a siege with *Saladin* behind counter-besieging, so, you know, no absolutes.

Still a bad sign when movie strategists appear to understand it better than a real world army.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 3
This week on the blog, we're talking about the theory of protracted war - a strategic framework for a militarily weaker power looking to outlast and eventually defeat a much stronger enemy (with a brief discussion of implications re: Ukraine): acoup.blog/2022/03/03/col…
Decided to post this one early because events are moving quickly and it seemed like an accessible primer on this sort of warfare could help people to understand what is happening in Ukraine and how the conflict may evolve.
Of course there are potential outcomes that don't involve a protracted conflict - a sudden outbreak of conscience in Moscow, or the collapse of the Russian Armed Forces. But I think these are, unfortunately, substantially less likely than a protracted war.
Read 4 tweets

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