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Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
@JominiW
Mar 10, 2022 • 20 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 14: After two weeks of war, Russian forces continue employ indiscriminate attacks to demoralize Ukrainian political resolve and military resistance. This growing war of attrition has not changed Western opinion on intervention. #UkraineWar Image
2/ Humanitarian Impact. UN sources report more than 2 million refugees have fled Ukraine. Indiscriminate attacks of civilians are mounting at an alarming rate. 3,000 civilians were able to leave Irpin, but many remained trapped in Sumy, Mariupol, and other cities. #Ukraine
3/ Weather assessment. Improved weather conditions throughout the Ukrainian theater will increase the frequency of VKS air and missile attacks. Warmer ground temperatures will make off road movement difficult, as recent snowfall will make the ground to soft for heavy armor.
4/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Ukrainian forces have been pushed into a tight defensive ring around Kyiv. However, as indicative of today’s unsuccessful attack into Irpin, Russian forces remained challenged to execute large-scale assaults. #Kyiv Image
5/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Ukrainian attacks against Russian supply routes is having a decisive effect on preventing attacks against Kyiv. However, it is unclear how long the Ukrainians can maintain this. #sumyevacuation Image
6/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. Key take away, the Ukrainians have been able to maintain an effective line of maneuver along the Donets River anchored on Chuhuiv in the north and Dymytrov in the south. Mariupol still holds out. #Kharkiv #Mariupol Image
7/ The Southern AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, the Russian advance in the south has stalled. This is most likely due to more BTGs being committed east toward Mariupol. Social media posts suggest the Russians are increasing forces in Mykolaiv. #Mykolaiv Image
8/ Aerospace Assessment. The Ukrainian Air Force has been largely absent in recent days, reducing the number of sorties. Though the weather undoubtedly is one explanation for this, improved Russian SEAD/DEAD might be a factor as well.
9/ The Ukrainian military stressed today that IADs remain operational and effective. The United Kingdom is considering providing Ukraine with the Starstreak air-defense weapon system. If this goes through it will enhance Ukrainian MANPADS capability. defensenews.com/global/europe/…
10/ Electromagnetic Sphere. The Ukrainians have made targeting Russian EW systems a tactical priority. Ukrainian UAVs are increasingly falling victim to Russian and Separatist EW attack. Degrading Russian EW system will provide key tactical advantages.
11/ Information War. The Russians continue to focus on shaping domestic opinion rather than commit resources to an extensive disinformation campaign, that has been apparently outsourced to friendly foreign media.
12/ International Foreign Legion. The Ukrainian International Foreign Legion continues to grow, and now includes a detachment of Belarusian volunteers, calling into question Belarus as a reliable Russian partner.
13/ Battle Damage Assessment. Ukrainian S-300 & BUK SAM down 4 Russian SU-25s. Near Chernihiv, a Russian convoy transporting MLRS rockets, 9K33 Osa air-defense systems, and a T-72B MBT was ambushed and destroyed.
14/ Russian Overall Assessment. The Russian military remains over stretched, yet it is still operationally effective and retains sufficient combat capability to achieve its immediate goals. It will rely more on siege tactics and indiscriminate attacks in the days ahead.
15/ The fight for decisive points like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Mikolaiyv, Sumy, and Chernihiv to name just a few will see immensely destructive urban combat. Kharkiv is already rivaling the siege of Sarajevo if it has not already surpassed it.
16/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. The Ukrainian resolve remains high, despite resent political setbacks in acquiring key elements of lethal aid (namely Polish MiGs). Maintaining pressure on Russian logistics is essential to stalling future Russian operations.
17/ Perhaps more important that the destruction of Russian equipment is its capture. Captured Russian equipment requires little to no training for the Ukrainians to press them into service, while western equipment requires training and acclimation.
18/ I will be posting more focused assessment of specific areas in the week to come as more data on key locations has been made available through recent extensive reporting (both traditional media and social media) that can be analyzed and processed.
19/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.
20/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.

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More from @JominiW

Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 21
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1121: March 17-18, 2025, was marked by a significant escalation in ground and air operations across multiple fronts. In the north, Ukrainian forces have largely withdrawn from the Kursk region while simultaneously launching a surprise offensive in Russia's Belgorod Oblast.

The Donbas Strategic Direction, particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk Fronts, remains heavily contested, with the largest concentration of Russian and Ukrainian forces. In the Southern Strategic Direction, the Russian buildup of forces, which started in December 2024, has now transitioned into a renewed offensive push to the west of Orikhiv. This push is likely to isolate the city and force a Ukrainian withdrawal to the Stepnohirsk-Novopavlivka line.

Air operations have intensified, with Ukraine launching a major drone attack on Russia's Engels airbase, involving 54 drones, while Russia retaliated with massive drone and missile strikes across Ukrainian cities. The naval theater remains relatively quiet.

Diplomatically, discussions around a temporary ceasefire focusing on energy and infrastructure targets are ongoing without concrete resolutions. The conflict continues to have significant economic impacts, exacerbating inflationary pressures and trade disruptions. The situation remains highly dynamic and volatile, with both sides engaged in intense combat operations and strategic maneuvers across multiple regions. #UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #Sudzha #Belgorod #ZaporizhzhiaImage
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Direction Orikhiv: From February 25 to March 20, 2025, intense combat operations took place in Operational Direction Orikhiv. Russian forces made gradual gains along the Lobkove-Stepove-Mali Shcherbaky line at a significant cost in personnel and equipment. However, Ukrainian troops demonstrated resilience and tactical effectiveness in their defense of the region, successfully thwarting many Russian advances.Image
Read 8 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 18
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1119: The period of March 17-18, 2025, was marked by significant Russian territorial gains, particularly in Kursk Oblast. These gains were balanced by continued Ukrainian resistance and offensive capabilities. The high casualty rates and extensive infrastructure damage underscored the war’s continued intensity.

The partial ceasefire agreement on energy infrastructure attacks represents a notable diplomatic development, though it falls short of a comprehensive resolution. The strategic landscape remains complex, with both sides maneuvering for military advantage while engaging in high-stakes diplomatic negotiations that will shape the conflict's future and the broader geopolitical environment.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #Sudzha #toretsk #ZaporizhzhiaImage
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Toretsk-Nui York Area of Operations: OTU Luhansk demonstrated superior effectiveness in its initial assault to retake Toretsk, which began on February 25. This is evidenced by the swift and brutal attack led by elite Ukrainian units, particularly the Lyut brigade, which overran the exhausted Russian defenders, setting the tone for the entire operation.

While Russian forces have implemented defensive measures and counter-strikes, they have struggled to match the effectiveness of the Ukrainian operations. The effectiveness of the Ukrainian counterattack puts pressure on Russian military leadership. The need to defend Toretsk while maintaining operations elsewhere may force a reevaluation of Russian military objectives and resource allocation.Image
Read 10 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 14
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1114: Fierce combat persisted across the Donbas Strategic Direction, especially north of Chasiv Yar and in the Kostiantynopil regions. Russian troops made attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defensive positions using heavy artillery and infantry assaults but encountered strong resistance, leading to limited territorial advances.

In the Southern Strategic Direction, Ukrainian forces executed precise strikes on Russian ammunition depots in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which disrupted supply lines and hampered Russian artillery effectiveness.

The Northern Strategic Direction saw an uptick in cross-border shelling from Russian forces into Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, which led Ukraine to bolster its defensive setups in these areas.

Concurrently, Russian missile and drone attacks on critical Ukrainian infrastructure continued, with Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepting most incoming threats; however, there was some minor damage to energy facilities in Kyiv and Dnipro.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #SudzhaImage
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Direction Kursk: In the past two and a half weeks, OUV Kursk has effectively utilized its operational advantages over recent months to defeat OTU Siversk in the Kursk Oblast. While it is nearly certain OTU Siversk will shift to a defensive posture in Sumy Oblast, it’s uncertain how much force structure OUV Kursk will retain for future operations.Image
Read 11 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 12
1/ A breakthrough or a deadlock? The Jeddah agreement, reached on March 11, 2025, between U.S. and Ukrainian officials, marks a significant development in efforts to address the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This comprehensive agreement includes a cease-fire proposal and economic terms, with mixed reactions from Russia. As the world watches, all eyes are on Moscow's response. Will this lead to peace or another impasse? Is this the road to Minsk III? Here are the key details:
#UkraineWar #Ceasefire #Geopolitics

x.com/Mylovanov/stat…
2/ Cease-Fire Proposal
The centerpiece of the Jeddah agreement is a U.S.-proposed 30-day cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia. The main aspects of this cease-fire include:

1. Duration: An immediate, interim period of 30 days that can be extended by mutual agreement.
2. Scope: The ceasefire encompasses the entire front line of the conflict, including aerial and naval operations.
3. Comprehensive coverage: It encompasses all forms of combat, including missile, drone, and bomb attacks.
4. Conditional implementation: The cease-fire depends on Russia's acceptance and simultaneous implementation.

x.com/ChrisO_wiki/st…
3/ Humanitarian Efforts
As part of the cease-fire agreement, several humanitarian initiatives are proposed:

1. Exchange of prisoners of war.
2. Release of civilian detainees.
3. Return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children. Image
Read 8 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 25
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1096): February 2025 saw intensifying military operations throughout the Ukrainian TVD, with both sides focusing on strategic air campaigns and continued Russian offensive on multiple fronts. Russia continued its missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, targeting energy grids and transportation hubs to disrupt military logistics and civilian morale. Meanwhile, Ukraine escalated its use of long-range drones and precision missile strikes, hitting Russian oil refineries and logistical hubs deep in Russian territory, including key sites in Belgorod and Kursk.

On the political front, Ukraine secured additional Western military aid, including French Mirage 2000 fighter jets, while NATO reaffirmed its support amidst growing concerns about potential escalation. Domestically, Russia faced increasing discontent among its population due to Ukrainian strikes on its territory, while sanctions-induced economic stagnation and logistical strain further challenged its war effort.

Economically, Ukraine struggled with energy shortages caused by continued Russian strikes, but international financial aid and grain export corridors through the Black Sea provided a lifeline. The conflict remains entrenched, with both nations locked in a war of attrition, as neither side achieved decisive breakthroughs on the battlefield or in negotiations. #UkraineWar #Donbass #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #siverekImage
2/ Fourth Year of the War Begins: Today marks a solemn day for Ukraine and the international community. Three years have passed since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine commenced. Three years later, much has changed, but one constant that has remained is the resolve of the Ukrainian people to defy Russian aggression and the conviction of those in the West willing to oppose it. Ukraine has shown the world what Patriots are made of. #SlavaUkraini
x.com/ZelenskyyUa/st…
3/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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Read 25 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 12
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1083: Today's DTU focuses on actions along the Donetsk Front from 08-11 February, 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #ChasivYar #Toretsk #Pokrovsk #NovyKomar #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: The Donetsk Oblast serves as the critical front for the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation (SVRF). The primary focus of OUGRV-Ukraine operations is the capture of southern Donetsk Oblast, which will facilitate advances into the less fortified areas of western and central Donetsk.

In the OSV Yug Area of Responsibility, the 3d Guards Combined Arms Army has made minor advancements in the Siversk region. In the Chasiv Yar area, VDV and Spetsnaz units have achieved significant tactical control over the northern and central sections of the town. The 41st Guards Combined Arms Army has established control over most of Toretsk. Yet, Ukrainian forces continue to resist in the northern and northwest outskirts of the city. While OSVs Tsentr and Vostok are making daily advancements in southern Donetsk, OUV Donetsk is successfully conducting delaying operations despite intense pressure.Image
Read 14 tweets

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