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Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
@JominiW
Mar 10, 2022 • 20 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 14: After two weeks of war, Russian forces continue employ indiscriminate attacks to demoralize Ukrainian political resolve and military resistance. This growing war of attrition has not changed Western opinion on intervention. #UkraineWar Image
2/ Humanitarian Impact. UN sources report more than 2 million refugees have fled Ukraine. Indiscriminate attacks of civilians are mounting at an alarming rate. 3,000 civilians were able to leave Irpin, but many remained trapped in Sumy, Mariupol, and other cities. #Ukraine
3/ Weather assessment. Improved weather conditions throughout the Ukrainian theater will increase the frequency of VKS air and missile attacks. Warmer ground temperatures will make off road movement difficult, as recent snowfall will make the ground to soft for heavy armor.
4/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Ukrainian forces have been pushed into a tight defensive ring around Kyiv. However, as indicative of today’s unsuccessful attack into Irpin, Russian forces remained challenged to execute large-scale assaults. #Kyiv Image
5/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Ukrainian attacks against Russian supply routes is having a decisive effect on preventing attacks against Kyiv. However, it is unclear how long the Ukrainians can maintain this. #sumyevacuation Image
6/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. Key take away, the Ukrainians have been able to maintain an effective line of maneuver along the Donets River anchored on Chuhuiv in the north and Dymytrov in the south. Mariupol still holds out. #Kharkiv #Mariupol Image
7/ The Southern AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, the Russian advance in the south has stalled. This is most likely due to more BTGs being committed east toward Mariupol. Social media posts suggest the Russians are increasing forces in Mykolaiv. #Mykolaiv Image
8/ Aerospace Assessment. The Ukrainian Air Force has been largely absent in recent days, reducing the number of sorties. Though the weather undoubtedly is one explanation for this, improved Russian SEAD/DEAD might be a factor as well.
9/ The Ukrainian military stressed today that IADs remain operational and effective. The United Kingdom is considering providing Ukraine with the Starstreak air-defense weapon system. If this goes through it will enhance Ukrainian MANPADS capability. defensenews.com/global/europe/…
10/ Electromagnetic Sphere. The Ukrainians have made targeting Russian EW systems a tactical priority. Ukrainian UAVs are increasingly falling victim to Russian and Separatist EW attack. Degrading Russian EW system will provide key tactical advantages.
11/ Information War. The Russians continue to focus on shaping domestic opinion rather than commit resources to an extensive disinformation campaign, that has been apparently outsourced to friendly foreign media.
12/ International Foreign Legion. The Ukrainian International Foreign Legion continues to grow, and now includes a detachment of Belarusian volunteers, calling into question Belarus as a reliable Russian partner.
13/ Battle Damage Assessment. Ukrainian S-300 & BUK SAM down 4 Russian SU-25s. Near Chernihiv, a Russian convoy transporting MLRS rockets, 9K33 Osa air-defense systems, and a T-72B MBT was ambushed and destroyed.
14/ Russian Overall Assessment. The Russian military remains over stretched, yet it is still operationally effective and retains sufficient combat capability to achieve its immediate goals. It will rely more on siege tactics and indiscriminate attacks in the days ahead.
15/ The fight for decisive points like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Mikolaiyv, Sumy, and Chernihiv to name just a few will see immensely destructive urban combat. Kharkiv is already rivaling the siege of Sarajevo if it has not already surpassed it.
16/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. The Ukrainian resolve remains high, despite resent political setbacks in acquiring key elements of lethal aid (namely Polish MiGs). Maintaining pressure on Russian logistics is essential to stalling future Russian operations.
17/ Perhaps more important that the destruction of Russian equipment is its capture. Captured Russian equipment requires little to no training for the Ukrainians to press them into service, while western equipment requires training and acclimation.
18/ I will be posting more focused assessment of specific areas in the week to come as more data on key locations has been made available through recent extensive reporting (both traditional media and social media) that can be analyzed and processed.
19/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.
20/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.

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More from @JominiW

Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Dec 21
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1030): The situation in the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action (TVD) remains challenging for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Since November 28, the ZSU has struggled to stabilize defensive lines in many key sectors along the Strategic Front while effectively managing delaying operations in the critical Pokrovsk-Kurakhove Operational Direction. However, Ukrainian forces have regained lost ground in a few important areas. This thread provides a general overview of events throughout the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action (TVD) since late November. #UkraineWar #Donbas #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #SiverekImage
2/ Operational Terms. Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Northern Strategic Direction: The Northern Strategic Direction (SD) remains the TVDs secondary SD. ZSU operations in this SD have very likely lost the ability to shift the operational initiative in Ukraine’s favor. As previously assessed, the employment of the RS-26 Rubezh intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) (a.k.a. Oreshnik) has not deterred Ukraine from continuing to employ ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP systems against Russian deep logistics and command nodes within the territory of the Russian Federation. However, since Western authorization to use these systems on the territory of the Russian Federation was granted, ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP strikes have been limited. This is likely due to low stockpiles and not the continued threats by President Putin to conduct another Oreshnik strike.

OSV Kursk will continue to counterattack the southwestern flank of the Sudzhalodgment, threatening an operational encirclement of Ukrainian forces and forcing a withdrawal. It is likely that OTU Siversk(?) will attempt to counterattack towards Novoivanovka. DPRK forces will almost certainly continue to be atomized at the small-unit level and integrated into larger VSRF formations to gain experience. VSRF and ZSU forces will likely continue positional engagements in the Kharkiv region; Russian forces will likely remain focused on efforts to seize Vovchansk.Image
Read 20 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Dec 3
1/ Southern Strategic Direction Update (Day 1013): Today's short update focuses on events in the Southern Operational Direction since November 04, 2024, and the Maritime and Aerospace theaters. The Southern Strategic Direction is now the tertiary SD of the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action (TVD). VSRF activity throughout this SD is mostly defensive and has primarily focused on the continued in-depth strengthening of the Surovikin Line.

Elements of the Operational Group of Forces East (OSV Vostok) in the Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction will prioritize offensive actions in coordination with OSV Tsentr to complete the seizure of southern Donetsk Oblast. Operational Group of Forces Dniepr(OSV Dniepr) will continue to conduct limited assaults in the Orihkiv Operational Direction and set conditions for a potential offensive to seize Orihkiv. Russian forces will maintain defense along the Dnipro River in Kherson. The ZSU will continue to rely on deep strike and SSO-U infiltration raids in coordination with Partisans to disrupt and degrade SVRF's capability and capacity to defend Zaporizhzhia and Kherson effectively. The priority of ZSU effort will remain the defense of southern Donetsk Oblast. #UkraineWar #Zaporizhzhia #VelykaNovosilka #Orikhiv #Kherson #Crimea #BlackSea #RussianAirForceImage
2/ Operational Terms. To help you understand the thread's graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (Note: I am still refining and updating this list. Please bear with me as I do. Thank you.) Image
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3/ Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction: The failure of OSUV Tavriva's leadership to anticipate an assault on Velyka Novosilka from any direction other than the southern approaches has placed this geographic objective point in danger of falling to the Russians. Within days of the capture of Shakhtarske and Yasna Polyana, the 29th Guards Combined Arms Army executed an operational left turn to reorient on an east-west attack axes to assault Velyka Novosilka. The eastern approaches to the town were lightly defended, with only spare minefields guarding likely avenues of approach, which were quickly breached by advancing Russian forces. Supporting this attack were assaults from the south by elements of the 5th Guards Combined Arms Army on Makarivka and Novodarivka. ZSU defenses in these directions were better prepared to respond to a multi-axes SVRF advance. The Russians briefly held Makarivka in early November 2024 before ZSU counterattacks retook the settlement by the end of the month.

The 29th Guards Combined Arms Army will continue to attack north and northwest of Velyka Novosilka towards the T-0518/H15 Highway intersection. Russian forces in the Rozdolne and Noyvi Komar will expand their zone of control north and west; they are not likely to advance into the north environs of Velyka Novosilka. The 5th Guards Combined Arms Army operational priority is likely the capture of Zelene Pole and Temyrivka to cut the last line of communication into Velyka Novosilka to to facilitate the operational envelopment of OSUV Tavriva’s strategic flank in southern Donetsk Oblast, forcing a general withdrawal into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. OSUV Tavriva will continue their active defense of the Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction and seek counterattack opportunities.Image
Read 8 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Nov 28
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1008): The situation in the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action (TVD) remains challenging for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, since November 5, the ZSU has managed to stabilize defensive lines in many key sectors of the Strategic Front while effectively transitioning to a delaying operation in the critical Pokrovsk-Kurakhove Operational Direction. This thread provides a general overview of events in the Northern and Donbas Strategic Directions of the Ukrainian TVD since early November. #UkraineWar #Donbas #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #SiverekImage
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in comprehension of the thread's graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (Note: I am still refining and updating this list. Please bear with me as I do. Thank you.) Image
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3/ Northern Strategic Direction: After approximately 104 days since offensive operations started in Kursk, the Biden Administration (with the governments of France and the United Kingdom closely following suit) has finally been compelled to lift restrictions on the use of long-range strike weapons (like ATACMS, Storm Shadow/SCALP) on targets within the Russian Federation. However, the United States has not committed to President Zelensky’s request for Tomahawk cruise missiles and other long-range missile systems. Due to the limited quantity of ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP stockpiles, ZSU strikes on logistics facilities, airfields, and command posts inside the Russian Federation have been limited in scope and have had negligible effects on VSRF operations.

In the Kursk OD, VDV-led counterattacks continue to pressure ZSU defensive lines. Although there has been anecdotal reporting from Ukrainian troops in the Kursk lodgment stating they have engaged in combat with DPRK forces, there has yet to be credible footage to substantiate these claims. Russian efforts to mask the location of DPRK units by atomizing units (i.e., only deploying small units, likely company and below, within SVRF battalions) and dressing them in Russian uniforms appear successful. Obfuscating the location of DPRK units allows them to gain the necessary experience to operate as an effective independent force.Image
Read 15 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Nov 5
1/ Election Day in the United States is finally here. The Presidential Race between Republican Candidate, Former President Donald Trump, and Democratic Candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, has been polarizing, to say the least, with anxiety running high for not only Americans but people around the world, on its outcome. Ukrainians likely have the highest amount of anxiety over the outcome of the U.S. Presidential Election, as the winner will almost certainly set the war on a trajectory that will either enable a Ukrainian victory or a capitulation. #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #USAElection2024 #HarrisWalz2024 #TrumpVance2024 #PresidentialElectionsImage
2/ According to a Bipartisan Policy Center report, an estimated 244 million Americans are eligible to vote. The 2022 mid-term elections saw 161.42 million Americans registered to vote. However, the turnout saw roughly 75 million people vote, or 46.6% of the electorate. By comparison, approximately 158.4 million Americans voted in the 2020 Presidential Election out of 240 million eligible voters (168.3 million registered), a turnout of 66%. According to the New York Times, 78 million Americans have already cast their votes through early voting. Suppose the 2024 election cycle sees at least the same percentages of the electorate participate. In that case, at least 161.04 million people will cast ballots for the 2024 Presidential Election, with possibly roughly 48% of those votes already having been cast through early voting.Image
3/ Polls across the United States generally open between 0500-0600 locally, with polls closing between 1900-2000 locally. The first polls will close on the eastern seaboard of the United States at 2000 EST (0100 GMT). It will take several hours for the first returns to come in, but all eyes will be on the turnout in the 7-battleground states in this election: Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona (though some elections models have the state leaning Republican in the final days of the Presidential Race), Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.Image
Read 10 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Nov 5
1/ Ukrainian TVD Daily Tactical Update (DTU) (Day 983): Since Sept 17, the situation in the Ukrainian TVD has deteriorated for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU). As of 04 November 2024, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF) retain the strategic initiative and have improved positive operational momentum in the Donbas, specifically throughout the southern Donetsk Oblast. This thread provides a general overview of events since mid-September. #UkraineWar #Donbas #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #Vuhledar #KurakhoveImage
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you). Image
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3/ Northern Strategic Direction: The Northern Strategic Direction (SD) is now the TVDs secondary SD. There is remote potential for ZSU operations in this SD to shift the strategic initiative in Ukraine’s favor. Despite some tactical and operational success in Kursk, the Government of Ukraine failed to achieve its principal strategic goal, to compel the United States to lift restrictions on the use of long-range strike weapons on targets within the Russian Federation. The ZSU remains faced with the dilemma of either continuing to reinforce efforts in Kursk or transition to the defensive and shore up the operational deterioration of OSUV Tavriya’s strategic flank in southern Donetsk Oblast. The decision on where to place its operational focus during the winter of 2024-25 will impact the strategic trajectory of the war.Image
Read 13 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Sep 18
1/ Ukraine TVD, Day 935: As of 16 September, the VSRF retains the strategic initiative and positive operational momentum throughout the Ukrainian TVD. The ZSU continues efforts to expand the Kursk lodgment, with Russian ground forces conducting a counterattack in the Korenevo area. OGV Sever offensive actions, through reduced in scale, maintain the ability to fix a significant number of Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region. In the Donbas elements of the 2GCAA have slowed their advance on Pokrovsk for logistical resupply, with the 201MRD attacking through the operational flank of OSUV Tavriya south of the M30 highway. In Zaporizhzhia, elements of OSV Tsentr and Vostok have renewed offensive action in the Vuhledar area, pressing hard for Bohoiavlenka. The VKS stepped up strikes on Ukraine's energy grid while the PSU continues large drone strikes targeting fuel and energy complex facilities in the Moscow region. #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #UkraineWarNews #UkraineFrontLines #RussianArmy #UkraineNeverSurrenders #RussiaImage
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. Weather will not significantly impact ongoing operations. Weather favors offensive action. Courtesy of @davidhelms570
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).


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Read 17 tweets

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