Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 14: After two weeks of war, Russian forces continue employ indiscriminate attacks to demoralize Ukrainian political resolve and military resistance. This growing war of attrition has not changed Western opinion on intervention. #UkraineWar

2/ Humanitarian Impact. UN sources report more than 2 million refugees have fled Ukraine. Indiscriminate attacks of civilians are mounting at an alarming rate. 3,000 civilians were able to leave Irpin, but many remained trapped in Sumy, Mariupol, and other cities. #Ukraine

3/ Weather assessment. Improved weather conditions throughout the Ukrainian theater will increase the frequency of VKS air and missile attacks. Warmer ground temperatures will make off road movement difficult, as recent snowfall will make the ground to soft for heavy armor.

4/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Ukrainian forces have been pushed into a tight defensive ring around Kyiv. However, as indicative of today’s unsuccessful attack into Irpin, Russian forces remained challenged to execute large-scale assaults. #Kyiv

5/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Ukrainian attacks against Russian supply routes is having a decisive effect on preventing attacks against Kyiv. However, it is unclear how long the Ukrainians can maintain this. #sumyevacuation

6/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. Key take away, the Ukrainians have been able to maintain an effective line of maneuver along the Donets River anchored on Chuhuiv in the north and Dymytrov in the south. Mariupol still holds out. #Kharkiv #Mariupol

7/ The Southern AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, the Russian advance in the south has stalled. This is most likely due to more BTGs being committed east toward Mariupol. Social media posts suggest the Russians are increasing forces in Mykolaiv. #Mykolaiv

8/ Aerospace Assessment. The Ukrainian Air Force has been largely absent in recent days, reducing the number of sorties. Though the weather undoubtedly is one explanation for this, improved Russian SEAD/DEAD might be a factor as well.

9/ The Ukrainian military stressed today that IADs remain operational and effective. The United Kingdom is considering providing Ukraine with the Starstreak air-defense weapon system. If this goes through it will enhance Ukrainian MANPADS capability. defensenews.com/global/europe/…

10/ Electromagnetic Sphere. The Ukrainians have made targeting Russian EW systems a tactical priority. Ukrainian UAVs are increasingly falling victim to Russian and Separatist EW attack. Degrading Russian EW system will provide key tactical advantages.

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1501607499748855816?s=20&t=bF5KyqNzv-vFFgpKr9DrOA

11/ Information War. The Russians continue to focus on shaping domestic opinion rather than commit resources to an extensive disinformation campaign, that has been apparently outsourced to friendly foreign media.

https://twitter.com/FCDserviceA_llc/status/1501569521781456896?s=20&t=DtPmQyj1d_GeOX-laxgF-A

12/ International Foreign Legion. The Ukrainian International Foreign Legion continues to grow, and now includes a detachment of Belarusian volunteers, calling into question Belarus as a reliable Russian partner.

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1501597119144251397?s=20&t=DtPmQyj1d_GeOX-laxgF-A

13/ Battle Damage Assessment. Ukrainian S-300 & BUK SAM down 4 Russian SU-25s. Near Chernihiv, a Russian convoy transporting MLRS rockets, 9K33 Osa air-defense systems, and a T-72B MBT was ambushed and destroyed.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501631349580521487?s=20&t=DtPmQyj1d_GeOX-laxgF-A

14/ Russian Overall Assessment. The Russian military remains over stretched, yet it is still operationally effective and retains sufficient combat capability to achieve its immediate goals. It will rely more on siege tactics and indiscriminate attacks in the days ahead.

15/ The fight for decisive points like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Mikolaiyv, Sumy, and Chernihiv to name just a few will see immensely destructive urban combat. Kharkiv is already rivaling the siege of Sarajevo if it has not already surpassed it.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501815428296945673?s=20&t=bF5KyqNzv-vFFgpKr9DrOA

16/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. The Ukrainian resolve remains high, despite resent political setbacks in acquiring key elements of lethal aid (namely Polish MiGs). Maintaining pressure on Russian logistics is essential to stalling future Russian operations.

17/ Perhaps more important that the destruction of Russian equipment is its capture. Captured Russian equipment requires little to no training for the Ukrainians to press them into service, while western equipment requires training and acclimation.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501255520996495365?s=20&t=bF5KyqNzv-vFFgpKr9DrOA

18/ I will be posting more focused assessment of specific areas in the week to come as more data on key locations has been made available through recent extensive reporting (both traditional media and social media) that can be analyzed and processed.

19/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.

20/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.