I've been looking at the #Nickel trade data for Tuesday morning and the cancelled #LME trades.
The numbers are quite staggering:
9,064 lots traded
VWAP of $71,743
Contract value = $3.9bn !!!! #LME has cancelled all of these #Nickel trades.
By moving the price back to $48,078 they have wiped out $1.3bn of PnL on these trades.
I have traded on the #LME since 1994 and have seen many trades cancelled in that time - always because of genuine fat-fingered mistakes. Market participants are Gentlemen and are happy to cancel mistakes because you never know when you will make one.
...but for an exchange to cancel 5,179 trades for a total of 9,064 lots, and to do so retrospectively, does not sit well with me at all. These were between willing buyers and willing sellers in a functioning market. #LME#Nickel
This creates serious credibility issues for the #LME. Where is the line? If they can do this retrospectively in #Nickel, what else can they do? How can you trade on an exchange if you do not have certainty that your profits will be paid and others will be let off losses?
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#Golf and the #LME
I was once told a story about Ernie Els’s caddy. Ernie is one of the best golfers ever and had a superb caddy. Ernie was injured for a tournament so a rookie professional on the tour asked if his caddy could work for him that week.
So on the first tee the caddy hands the young man a 3 iron and tells him to hit it 250 yds down the right-hand side.
The foolhardy young pro ignores the caddy and takes out his driver and hits it 330 yds down the left into deep rough, completely obscuring a second shot into the green.
Some thoughts on #tungsten below:
2020 market size was about 106,000 tonnes
80% of this comes from China
7% was consumed in defence, of which 80% goes into ammunition
7% was consumed in a depressed Oil and Gas sector
24% was consumed in a depressed mining sector
One of the likely fallouts from the Russia / Ukraine invasion are Free World policy shifts towards energy and raw material independence becoming strategic priorities.
#Tungsten's main uses are for whenever you drill, cut metal and for specialty alloys. It is largely unsubstitutable for these applications.
Some thoughts on the current markets below. There are once in a generation (or even once in a lifetime) opportunities right now.
1. There was not enough "stuff" today before Ukraine and Russian sanctions with most commodities in major deficits 2. There is even less "stuff" in the future due to a decade of underinvestment in new capacity and exploration and a demand shock from the Green Energy Revolution
3. Russia is an autarky - they are self sufficient in energy, metals and food - and a major producer and exporter of many critical commodities 4. Russia is now and will be for years to come a pariah state - doing business there or trading with them will cripple your business
This thread is loosely about Rudyard Kipling and his poem “If”.
WE ARE AT AN ‘If” MOMENT
- “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs.” -
Will you be a rabbit in the headlights or have the right portfolio and make the right investment decisions?
What is the big picture?
- 40 year bull market in bonds
- 40 year bear market in interest rates
- 13 years of ultra-easy monetary policy
- Paradigm shift in where energy is sourced
- 13 years of underinvestment in mineral exploration
- Ludicrous valuations and market happenings
- Fundamentals ignored
- “This time is different mentality”
(see GameStop, Hertz, negative yields in Govt bonds, everything crypto, P.E. Ratios in Tesla etc etc etc)
#Peru#copper # tin #zinc#lead
So I tweeted a thread a couple of months back on how the election of a Communist President of Peru would seriously deter future mining investment, and put at risk existing production levels.
I have quietly watched developments since, including the burning of mining camps, road blockades and this week's uncertainty on maybe cancelling some mine permits. Sadly for the long-term prosperity of the Peruvian people my fears are playing out.
Investors crave certainty - there is currently none. #Peru is now uninvestible for new foreign Western World capital going in.
So what is the Govt's game plan here? Here is what I think they are doing / will be doing:
This is complicated, so do feel free to tweet any questions!
First up some terms:
Contango: when the forward price is above the current spot price
Backwardation: when the forward price is below the current spot price
When a market is well supplied or in surplus it tends to be in contango. The normal state of metal markets is to be in contango from the cash date, but with the contango becoming less as you go further forward.
This is because there is a limit to how big this contango can be as otherwise there would be an arbitrage in buying metal today, storing it, and then selling it at a future date at a profit. This concept is called “full finance contango”.