Thread by @WarintheFuture

It is 15 days since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine commenced. Today I examine the war in the eastern part of Ukraine, and why it matters. 1/22 (Image - todayonline.com)

2/22 As always, a shout out to those reporting on the Russian invasion. This includes @KofmanMichael @maxseddon @IAPonomarenko @RALee85 @shashj @DanLamothe @ikhurshudyan @IanPannell @defenceHQ @thestudyofwar @siobhan_ogrady
among others. Please follow them.

3/22 The multiple Russian attacks against Mariupol, and the attack on the Mariupol hospital this week, is indicative of Russia’s new phase in their war against Ukraine. (Image - CNN)

4/22 As CIA Director William Burns described in testimony to the US Congress this week, "I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now. He's likely to double down and try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties." npr.org/2022/03/08/108…

5/22 The Russians are desperate for the battlefield success. Therefore, they are returning to their preferred way of war in the past - massive firepower to destroy enemy military forces and terrorise ‘enemy’ civilians. (Image - Forbes)

6/22 If the resistance in multiple Ukrainian cities is any sign, this shift in tactics is not yet working any better than the original Russian ‘blitzkrieg’ approach. Repeated attempts to seize the major prize in the east, Kharkiv, have also failed.

7/22 Despite repeated Russian attacks, the defenders of Kharkiv have steadfastly held their ground. More importantly, they have delayed other Russian operations in the eastern theatre of the war by absorbing Russian troops around their city. Why does this matter?

8/22 The eastern theatre of this war is a vital link between Russia’s northern operations (including the capture of Kyiv) and southern operations (to capture the entire Ukrainian coastline and its ports). There are several likely Russian objectives in this eastern theatre.

9/22 In the east, Russian military forces and their proxy forces primarily seek full territorial control of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. This objective remains incomplete from previous Russian operations. (Image - @JominiW)

10/22 Despite everything the Russians have thrown at the Ukrainians in the east however, they are yet to seize these two territories.

11/22 Russia probably also looks to control all Ukrainian territory east of the Dnieper River. Open-source reporting describes Russian forces preparing for an advance from areas in the south they have secured, towards Zaporizhya City. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

12/22 If this is successful (not a certainty), the next Russian goal could be the capture of the city of Dnipro (pictured). Successful capture of this city is also not a certainty. (Image - EBRD.com)

13/22 If the Russians secure Dnipro and then link up with Russian forces moving south from the Kharkiv region, it would give them control over a large proportion of Ukraine. Potentially this could include most of the country east of the Dnieper.

14/22 In doing so, the Russians might also surround and destroy Ukraine’s military forces defending this part of the country. This would be a significant setback for the overall defence of Ukraine.

15/22 However, the Russians are yet to demonstrate the tactical competence to undertake advances of this length & difficulty. And it is probably a given that even if the Russians were to gain control of eastern Ukraine, they would face a vicious & well-led Ukrainian insurgency.

16/22 A final issue is that Putin needs a successful campaign in the east (and the south) so he can claim some war successes if his military thrusts against Kyiv continue to stall.

17/22 If Russian forces retain control of ground already taken in the south & capture territory east of the Dnieper, Putin might claim a strategic success - for a Russian audience. It would also provide him with a bargaining chip in any ceasefire or war termination negotiations.

18/22 A good exploration of potential ceasefire and peace negotiation options is explored by @lawdavf here: samf.substack.com/p/giving-peace…

19/22 However, this is all hypothetical. And, as the Russians have fully committed all their forces assembled for the invasion (see my thread #13), it is difficult to see how they will sustain momentum – and logistically support – concurrent advances in the north, east and south.

20/22 Without a significant influx of troops from other Russian garrisons, the Russian high command may need to make a decision soon about which theatre is their priority for reinforcements to secure a breakthrough in the war.

21/22 That said, the eastern theatre is also a danger zone for the Ukrainian high command right now. In the coming days, Ukraine may need to trade ground for time, withdraw their troops and preserve Ukrainian units for other more important battles ahead.

22/22 The eastern theatre bears close watching. If Russian forces make a breakthrough at Zaporizhya City or are able to generate momentum to the west of Kharkiv, we could see a significant change in the overall status of the war. End. (Image - @RALee85)