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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Mar 12 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I wonder if these two tweets are related. Biden saying that the USA will not directly fight for Ukraine while ramping up deliveries of more effective systems. We are watching the formation of new red-lines throughout this conflict.
The uncrossable ones are no ground-forces in Ukraine or aircraft in the skies--no direct exchange of fire. What the US has done, however, is constantly test the red-line of what military systems they can deliver to the Ukrainians.
Otoh, the Russians are trying to push red lines in the other direction. This is quite an audacious claim. THough I dont think they would dare do it, as it would also involve a potential direct exchange with NATO.
and if we can say anything definite now, its that the Russian military could not think of engaging NATO in anything but a nuclear war.
Sorry meant to include this one with the Biden tweet. US saying it will never fight in Ukraine, while preparing to escalate military deliveries

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 14
Battle around Kyiv, some interesting signs from different sources. Has the risky drive from Sumy by the Russians petered out--or was it never as close to start? This will have serious implications to any move on the Ukrainian capital.
This was the UK MOD's intelligence estimate map on 11 March. The drive seemed very close to the outskirts of Kyiv. Image
This is the most recent map, just released an hour ago. The Russian drive is now much further back, all the way to Romny. It this is true, that drive is in serious trouble. Image
Read 10 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 14
One of the best attempts so far to explain one of the most important questions of the whole war, Logistics or otherwise. How are the Ukrainians resupplying? Will add a few comments here as it’s so impactful.
Ukraine is huge in European terms and the fighting is mostly in the Far East of the country. Away from the border with NATO countries. How they are getting the large numbers of weapons from NATO to the fighting is probably railways.
In the midst of the war, the ukrainian rail service has kept running from the border to almost all of the country, including Kyiv, Odessa and Dnipro. This is hugely beneficial to Ukraine.
Read 9 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 13
If Putin isn’t crazy, he will be looking for a way out of this disaster as quickly as possible (delay just means more damage for him as well as Ukraine). He can’t magically make a war winnable, just because he wants to.
The thing that must be concentrating his mind now is Kyiv. He has two choices. The first is to try and level one of the most important cities in history, with huge emotional importance to Russians as well as Ukrainians.
While at the same time basically wrecking his army by sending it into a large city of millions of people. And guaranteeing permanent sanctions for the rest of his life. OR, cutting some kind of deal. The second has to be more rational.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 13
A thread on issues for which I would like data, and which might reveal how the war will develop. Will summarise in a tweet each. Any help appreciated.
1) Are there signs of the Russians sending large reinforcements from outside of the theatre to support the invasion? The invading forces should be worn out in 2 weeks to a month. Without significant aid, that is a sign that the war might level off.
2) Is there good data of the operating tempo and mission types of Russian fixed wing aircraft over Ukraine? Looking at this we can see how successfully or not the Ukrainians are in denying the Russians air superiority.
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 13
Defintely worth a read. A view from within China on the Russia-Ukraine war and China. Overall a pessimistic reading on what Putin’s invasion means.
Here is the full translation: uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-…
Just one excerpt that stands out (and there are many others in the piece). The view that Russia can’t fight a protracted war (in other words China will not be bailing Putin out as the Russian economy collapses). Coming from a senior voice in China, it’s revealing. Image
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 12
Logistics Rule--look at the map. You might be wondering why the Russian invasion of Ukraine looks like a group of almost equidistant road-linked thrusts stretching from Russian and Belarus into Ukraine. (thanks to @Nrg8000 for this) Image
Turning to this War on the Rocks piece, it is said that the average Russian unit has a truck lift to take it to 90 miles (140km) from the closest large supply dump (see below). You would have to double the trucks on hand to get to 180 miles. warontherocks.com/2021/11/feedin… Image
Here is the map with a 140km/90mile line (handdrawn, apologies) in black in the middle. What you can see is that there have hardly been any Russian thrusts that have exceeded the natural limit set by their truck lift. Image
Read 19 tweets

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