Thread by @ABarbashin

An institutionalist explanation for why Putin invaded Ukraine. None of "he is crazy" or "he is rebuilding the Soviet Empire".
Putting it differently how come Kremlin made the worst decision in the past few decades?
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Vladimir Gelman explains why there is no reason to believe Putin wasn't rational about taking this decision. His every decision before invading Ukraine was quite rational if we take into consideration Putin's calculus.
Key explanation for why this decision was
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made is that Russia is a personalist authoritarian state. The stronger the authoritarianism in Russia, the stupider it gets: because it relies on people because of their loyalty and not expertise.
Critical feedback in FP is non-existant within decision-making circles
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There is almost no instructions in FP decision-making, it is almost exclusively the will of the political leadership. Such was the decision to send troops to Czechoslovakia in 1968 or invade Afghanistan in 1979.
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What is the key goal of public administration in Russia now - still the extraction of rent. Good, well prepared decision are limited to "pocket of efficiency", for instance like the Central Bank. Among few other "pockets of efficiency", the professionalism of a few
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create the illusion among key decision-makers that the state is run effectively and bad governance is not that widespread. When in fact, it is. Most of Russia is run very poorly.
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Another key factor is misrepresentation. Putin looked at US withdrawal in Afghanistan and thought, if I push Ukraine hard enough, government in Kyiv will run same way if US is out of the picture. Because in his mind, Ukraine and Afghanistan were run by the same people
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These misconceptions are based on unrealistic retrospective worldview expectations. Russia's "We can do it again" stands in the same line as "Make America Great Again". Other worldviews are considered simply wrong and are not being looked at at all.
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Also, it is highly likely Putin believed he can repeat the success of the past. That this would be like Crimea but just on a larger scale.
The combination of those factors led Putin to believe he can gain by invading Ukraine.
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Facing reality that is far from what Putin expected does not mean he will learn his lessons and change his calculus.
For more details read this new Vladimir Gelman's piece for @RiddleRussia
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ridl.io/en/why-the-kre…

consideration here: