I think Sanjiv Patel is a very good CEO. You won't hear a lot of promises or hype from him. He seems to be the quite type. He lets the data speak for itself. So far, I think he has done an outstanding job.
2/ Science:
Relay is using #AI and #ML to take on some of the most toxic targets in oncology. These are targets like FGFR and PI3Ka. These are targets that have been very promising in the past, but were just to toxic to go after.
3/ They are taking on these targets, and the data has been very impressive. They are doing this by targeting the mutant forms of targets like PI3Ka. PI3Ka is a driver of oncology as it control glucose uptake. It is also used by every healthy cell to regulate glucose.
4/ Previous attempts at taking on PI3Ka have led to serious side effects involving glucose regulation. Relay is using #AI and #ML to find target that are unique mutations of the PI3Ka while sparing the wild type so it does not affect healthy cells.
5/ This is still very early in phase 1 so anything can still go wrong. The preclinical data was very impressive and this should move into the clinic later this year. The early data in FGFR was very clean in the phase 1 safety study which helps validate this platform.
6/ Potential:
The FGFR indication is very small. Its only a few thousand patients at best in the US. The PI3Ka could be 3x to 5x larger then the famous KRAS indication. There could be from 50,000 up to 150,000 targetable patients in the US each year for this indication.
7/ Even at $100,000 price for 50,000 patients, that is a potential of $5 billion or more. This is the low end of the estimates which could go as high as $10 billion globally.
8/ Value:
Relay trades at $2.56 billion market cap. They have $958 million in cash and burned less then $400 million in 2021. That gives them well over 2 years of cash. I think this company is very attractively value here at $2.5 billion.
9/ I like to see it dip below $2 billion before I would call it really cheap. I have been waiting for that for a very long time. It may never happen. Softbank owns over 25% of this company.
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I have been in C4 Therapeutic for about 8 months now. I don't know the CEO Andrew Hirsch all that well. He seems to be doing good so far. The biggest issue I have is with the high level of risk in their strategy.
2/ They are highly focused on using Protein Degraders in already very proven indications and targets. This means they will have to show strong superiority over current therapies on efficacy or safety to really stand of chance of capturing any market share.
I have been in Arvinas about 9 months, and I am still undecided about John Houston. I don't like the idea they started in ER and AR which are highly competitive spaces.
2/ Their best programs have been sitting in the preclinic for years going nowhere. They fall further and further behind in those best indications like tau or KRAS. I am still hopeful they will impress me someday.
I have been in Kymera for about 9 months now. I think Nello Mainolfi has done a good job so far. Its still early stages so don't know how well he will navigate the regulatory and commercial aspects of the business.
2/ Science:
Kymera is working on Targeted Protein Degradation. This uses the Proteasome of the cell to target and breakdown unwanted proteins. This can be harnessed to target proteins that can be therapeutic to inhibit.
I don't know Mark Goldsmith very well. I have only been in Revolution Medicine about a year. That isn't a lot time to really know a management team. So far, I think he has done and excellent job.
2/ All their programs are still very early so it is hard to see how well they will navigate the regulatory and commercial parts of the business at this stage.
Mirati is one of my older holdings along with Blueprint. They were lead by founder and scientist Charles Baum. I think he did a really good job developing the company up to this point.
2/ He created Sitravatinib and in-licensed Adagrasib for KRAS G12C. Recently, they changed management by moving Baum to Chief of Research. They brought in David Meek as the new CEO to take them into the commercial phase of development.
Blueprint is one of my oldest holdings. They have an outstanding CEO with Jeff Albers. Recently, they announced the CEO transition to Kate Haviland. Jeff will move to the Chairman role.
2/ Any time there is a CEO transition, there is reason for concern. I have been in companies before that were very successful under one CEO and then it was all down hill after the CEO changed.