Taking a Look at $RLAY:
This is my updated look at Relay Therapeutics.
This is my updated look at Relay Therapeutics.
1/ Management:
I think Sanjiv Patel is a very good CEO. You won't hear a lot of promises or hype from him. He seems to be the quite type. He lets the data speak for itself. So far, I think he has done an outstanding job.
I think Sanjiv Patel is a very good CEO. You won't hear a lot of promises or hype from him. He seems to be the quite type. He lets the data speak for itself. So far, I think he has done an outstanding job.
2/ Science:
Relay is using #AI and #ML to take on some of the most toxic targets in oncology. These are targets like FGFR and PI3Ka. These are targets that have been very promising in the past, but were just to toxic to go after.
Relay is using #AI and #ML to take on some of the most toxic targets in oncology. These are targets like FGFR and PI3Ka. These are targets that have been very promising in the past, but were just to toxic to go after.
3/ They are taking on these targets, and the data has been very impressive. They are doing this by targeting the mutant forms of targets like PI3Ka. PI3Ka is a driver of oncology as it control glucose uptake. It is also used by every healthy cell to regulate glucose.
4/ Previous attempts at taking on PI3Ka have led to serious side effects involving glucose regulation. Relay is using #AI and #ML to find target that are unique mutations of the PI3Ka while sparing the wild type so it does not affect healthy cells.
5/ This is still very early in phase 1 so anything can still go wrong. The preclinical data was very impressive and this should move into the clinic later this year. The early data in FGFR was very clean in the phase 1 safety study which helps validate this platform.
6/ Potential:
The FGFR indication is very small. Its only a few thousand patients at best in the US. The PI3Ka could be 3x to 5x larger then the famous KRAS indication. There could be from 50,000 up to 150,000 targetable patients in the US each year for this indication.
The FGFR indication is very small. Its only a few thousand patients at best in the US. The PI3Ka could be 3x to 5x larger then the famous KRAS indication. There could be from 50,000 up to 150,000 targetable patients in the US each year for this indication.
7/ Even at $100,000 price for 50,000 patients, that is a potential of $5 billion or more. This is the low end of the estimates which could go as high as $10 billion globally.
8/ Value:
Relay trades at $2.56 billion market cap. They have $958 million in cash and burned less then $400 million in 2021. That gives them well over 2 years of cash. I think this company is very attractively value here at $2.5 billion.
Relay trades at $2.56 billion market cap. They have $958 million in cash and burned less then $400 million in 2021. That gives them well over 2 years of cash. I think this company is very attractively value here at $2.5 billion.
9/ I like to see it dip below $2 billion before I would call it really cheap. I have been waiting for that for a very long time. It may never happen. Softbank owns over 25% of this company.
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