China's position on Russia's invasion of Ukraine has attracted a lot of scrutiny in recent days
What explains China's response, and is China a winner or loser from this war? I'm sharing some thoughts here /1
What explains China's response, and is China a winner or loser from this war? I'm sharing some thoughts here /1
Since the war started, China has expressed sympathy with the reasons why Russia invaded but has not sided with Russia on key issues
It acknowledges the security threat of NATO expansion but abstained in the UNSC and won't recognize Donetsk and Luhansk as independent /2
It acknowledges the security threat of NATO expansion but abstained in the UNSC and won't recognize Donetsk and Luhansk as independent /2
In these respects, China's position has not changed since 2014
China recognized the threat of violent extremism in Ukraine and shared Russia's concerns about colour revolutions after Euro-Maidan, but did not recognize the Crimea annexation /3
China recognized the threat of violent extremism in Ukraine and shared Russia's concerns about colour revolutions after Euro-Maidan, but did not recognize the Crimea annexation /3
There is also speculation that China had foreknowledge of Russia's invasion of Ukraine
China would have deterred Putin from making this move during the Beijing Olympics
As security policy decisions in Russia are often reactive and made by a small clique, this is less clear /4
China would have deterred Putin from making this move during the Beijing Olympics
As security policy decisions in Russia are often reactive and made by a small clique, this is less clear /4
The war poses some threats to China's interests
Ukraine is important in the BRI, and a spillover of the war beyond Ukraine would undercut China's 16+1 bloc
If an isolated Russia relies on subversive tactics to an even greater degree, such as PMCs, this hurts China too /5
Ukraine is important in the BRI, and a spillover of the war beyond Ukraine would undercut China's 16+1 bloc
If an isolated Russia relies on subversive tactics to an even greater degree, such as PMCs, this hurts China too /5
But I think the benefits potentially outweigh these risks, and China is a geopolitical winner
Russian dependency on China, China's privileged access to Ukrainian rare earths in the event of regime change and China's ability to frame itself as an arbiter are plusses /6
Russian dependency on China, China's privileged access to Ukrainian rare earths in the event of regime change and China's ability to frame itself as an arbiter are plusses /6
Its also unlikely that US sanctions will lead to China limiting raw material financing or oil purchases
As the prospective benefits outweigh the costs right now, China is likely to vacillate within narrow parameters on its rhetoric but not exert leverage to rein in Russia /7
As the prospective benefits outweigh the costs right now, China is likely to vacillate within narrow parameters on its rhetoric but not exert leverage to rein in Russia /7
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
