Belarus is on the cusp of sending troops to Ukraine. A quick thread of this development's significance /1
Belarus deploying troops to Ukraine would be a historic milestone
Belarus treaded cautiously after the 2014 Crimea annexation and its nationals fought for both Russia and Ukraine
Belarus has promised 200 peacekeepers to Syria, but this is a much larger-scale intervention /2
Belarus treaded cautiously after the 2014 Crimea annexation and its nationals fought for both Russia and Ukraine
Belarus has promised 200 peacekeepers to Syria, but this is a much larger-scale intervention /2
Alexander Lukashenko has vacillated on whether Belarus would deploy troops
Lukashenko initially said Belarus would send forces if needed
He denied these intentions last week, as Ukraine accused Belarusians of landing in Chernikhiv and the US warned of imminent deployments /3
Lukashenko initially said Belarus would send forces if needed
He denied these intentions last week, as Ukraine accused Belarusians of landing in Chernikhiv and the US warned of imminent deployments /3
Belarus's restraint is explained by two factors
The first is domestic opposition, which is revealed by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's comments and pro-Ukraine rallies in Minsk
The second is Lukashenko's desire to show that Russia's troop presence in Belarus is not an occupation /4
The first is domestic opposition, which is revealed by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's comments and pro-Ukraine rallies in Minsk
The second is Lukashenko's desire to show that Russia's troop presence in Belarus is not an occupation /4
Belarus's hosting of talks between Russia and Ukraine led to military restraint
The failure of these talks to achieve breakthroughs and emergence of alternative mediators, such as Turkey, might have caused Belarus to become less vested in a diplomatic role /5
The failure of these talks to achieve breakthroughs and emergence of alternative mediators, such as Turkey, might have caused Belarus to become less vested in a diplomatic role /5
If it enters the war, Belarus will likely combine military deployments with cyberattacks, which disrupt the influx of Ukrainian refugees
This mirrors Russia's tactics and due to its boldness in the cyber sphere, might even look more like a hybrid intervention /6
This mirrors Russia's tactics and due to its boldness in the cyber sphere, might even look more like a hybrid intervention /6
As other CSTO members sit on the sidelines, the Russia-Belarus alliance has emerged as a parallel regional police force
This precedent could have repercussions beyond Ukraine and undo the credibility boost the CSTO got after it intervened in Kazakhstan in January /7
This precedent could have repercussions beyond Ukraine and undo the credibility boost the CSTO got after it intervened in Kazakhstan in January /7
From a military standpoint, Belarus's forces along with Syrian mercenaries provide Russia with much needed manpower
This will delay official conscription and the entry of Russian reservists not stationed near the Ukrainian border /8
This will delay official conscription and the entry of Russian reservists not stationed near the Ukrainian border /8
Belarus's lack of combat experience raises doubts about the effectiveness of its troops in Ukraine
Russia's efforts to subordinate Belarus and infringe on its sovereignty will have a much longer-lasting impact than anything in the military sphere /9
Russia's efforts to subordinate Belarus and infringe on its sovereignty will have a much longer-lasting impact than anything in the military sphere /9
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