Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Mar 11 6 tweets 1 min read
Russia is reportedly bringing Syrian mercenaries into the Ukraine war

Some thoughts on what that could mean /1
Vladimir Putin announced today that foreign volunteers could help Russia's war with Ukraine

Sergei Shoigu stated that of the 16,000 interested volunteers, many were from the Middle East

This means that Syrian mercenaries could enter the conflict as foreign volunteers /2
Syria will likely agree to the transfer of forces if Russia requests them

Assad supports Russia's recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk, and Syria was one of only 5 countries to back Russia in the UNGA

Pro-Russian rallies with the Z slogan have popped up in Damascus and Aleppo /3
The Wagner Group could oversee Syrian mercenaries

The Wagner Group used Syrians in Libya and Syrians could be transferred directly from Khalifa Haftar's LNA to Ukraine

This would expand Wagner's presence, as PMCs have left Central African Republic for Ukraine /4
RIA Novosti warns Turkey will send Syrian mercenaries who fought in Nagorno-Karabakh to Ukraine

The Kremlin claims its request for volunteers is a response to Ukraine's foreign legions

So Russia is normalizing these deployments through whataboutisms and disinformation /5
Syrian mercenaries will give Russia extra manpower, as 100% of its forces amassed on Ukraine's borders have been deployed

But their poor track record in Libya suggests that their battlefield impact might be limited

In short, Syrian mercenaries won't have a drastic impact /6

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More from @SamRamani2

Mar 11
Belarus is on the cusp of sending troops to Ukraine. A quick thread of this development's significance /1
Belarus deploying troops to Ukraine would be a historic milestone

Belarus treaded cautiously after the 2014 Crimea annexation and its nationals fought for both Russia and Ukraine

Belarus has promised 200 peacekeepers to Syria, but this is a much larger-scale intervention /2
Alexander Lukashenko has vacillated on whether Belarus would deploy troops

Lukashenko initially said Belarus would send forces if needed

He denied these intentions last week, as Ukraine accused Belarusians of landing in Chernikhiv and the US warned of imminent deployments /3
Read 9 tweets
Mar 10
Britain warns that Russia could use chemical weapons in Ukraine

Does this warning have credibility? I'll explain here /1
In December 1999, a cloud of toxic gas burst from an industrial plant in Chechnya killing 6 civilians

Russia responded by accusing Chechen rebels of carrying out a chemical weapons attack and issued medical antidotes to its troops /2
After this false flag warning in Grozny, Russia used a chemical agent to incapacitate Chechen terrorists during the October 2002 Moscow theatre crisis

3-methylfentanyl was the probable agent, though it has not been verified /3
Read 5 tweets
Mar 9
Russia has admitted to using a thermobaric bomb in Ukraine

I'm sharing my thoughts and some context on this alarming development here /1
This is not the first time Russia has used thermobaric weaponry in a conflict zone

In December 1999, Interfax confirmed that Russia used "vaccuum bombs" in Chechnya

Their use was especially prevalent in fortified areas, such as the southern mountains of Chechnya /2
In September 2016, the US accused Russia of using a TOS-1A thermobaric surface-to-surface rocket system in Aleppo

This technology is the same as what Russia has used in Ukraine, according to the British MoD /3
Read 7 tweets
Mar 9
Ukraine and Russia's foreign ministers will meet tomorrow for talks in Antalya, Turkey

Turkey condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but has also offered mediation services

I am sharing some thoughts on Turkey's position in this conflict /1
After the invasion, Erdogan described Russia's actions as "unacceptable" but vowed to balance ties between Russia and Ukraine

Turkey also ruled out participation in Western sanctions against Russia /2
Volodymyr Zelensky then pre-emptively claimed that Turkey had agreed to block access to Russian warships in the Black Sea

Turkey swiftly denied it had made this decision, but swiftly U-turned and banned Russian ships /3
Read 7 tweets
Mar 8
I completed my doctoral thesis at Oxford last year on Russia's military interventions in Ukraine and Syria.

Based on that research, I am sharing some thoughts on why Russia invaded Ukraine and what Putin might do next /1
Russian military interventions are often explained by geopolitical opportunism or regime insecurity

It is intriguing that Russia would invade Ukraine when its great power status was rising and there was no immediate threat to Putin's regime /2
Geopolitical opportunism has been chronically overplayed. Russia's annexation of Crimea and Black Sea foothold was not rationally worth the cost of Western sanctions.

Even in Syria, Russia embarked on a potentially high-risk, uncertain reward mission that ended up succeeding /3
Read 12 tweets
Mar 3
Russia has not made extensive use of cyberattacks in Ukraine

The Economist has described cyber as the dog that didn't bark in Russia's war on Ukraine

I will add some context about Russia's cyber restraint in this thread below
Another theory is that Russia has little interest in destroying Ukraine's core economic infrastructure via cyberattacks.

Instead, given the logistical problems the Russian military has faced so far, it might benefit from keeping it intact, occupying and using it.
Read 9 tweets

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