I completed my doctoral thesis at Oxford last year on Russia's military interventions in Ukraine and Syria.
Based on that research, I am sharing some thoughts on why Russia invaded Ukraine and what Putin might do next /1
Russian military interventions are often explained by geopolitical opportunism or regime insecurity
It is intriguing that Russia would invade Ukraine when its great power status was rising and there was no immediate threat to Putin's regime /2
Geopolitical opportunism has been chronically overplayed. Russia's annexation of Crimea and Black Sea foothold was not rationally worth the cost of Western sanctions.
Even in Syria, Russia embarked on a potentially high-risk, uncertain reward mission that ended up succeeding /3