Thread by @SamRamani2

Russia has admitted to using a thermobaric bomb in Ukraine

I'm sharing my thoughts and some context on this alarming development here /1

This is not the first time Russia has used thermobaric weaponry in a conflict zone

In December 1999, Interfax confirmed that Russia used "vaccuum bombs" in Chechnya

Their use was especially prevalent in fortified areas, such as the southern mountains of Chechnya /2

In September 2016, the US accused Russia of using a TOS-1A thermobaric surface-to-surface rocket system in Aleppo

This technology is the same as what Russia has used in Ukraine, according to the British MoD /3

In Syria, Russia reportedly used thermobaric rockets in tandem with cluster munitions and heavy weaponry

The SHOAB 0.5 cluster munition and BETAB-500, which is effective in building demolitions, were also used

They create a multiplier effect in terms of damage /4

Russia has historically gotten away with thermobaric weapons use

In Chechnya, HRW condemned Russia, and in Syria, US condemnations had no follow-up

The US's use of similar weapons to target militants in Afghanistan complicated things /5

As Russia tries to break the stalemates in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mariupol, thermobaric weapons use could grow

The first TOS-1A was caught eight days ago

Western countries are now sounding the alarm about future Russian chemical weapons use, but TOS-1As are much less risky /6

Kyiv's outskirts are particularly vulnerable, as Russia pursues its goal of regime change in Ukraine

Vasylkiv, 20 miles from Kyiv, was the initial reported site of TOS-1A use

Due to weak deterrence and the sluggish offensive, Russia could use TOS-1As again in the days ahead /7