The US has warned that China could militarily aid Russia in Ukraine. Sharing my thoughts in a short thread /1
China has endorsed Russia's rationales for intervention in Ukraine (violent extremism in 2014 and NATO expansion in 2022) but has never directly supported Moscow's decision to use force
Aiding Russia militarily would represent a radical overhaul in Chinese policy /2
Aiding Russia militarily would represent a radical overhaul in Chinese policy /2
The war could disrupt Russian arms deals, as US secondary sanctions will be enforced
Unlike Syria, the Ukraine war has showed inadequacies in Russian technology
Therefore, Chinese defence companies have new opportunities and won't risk sanctions by supplying Russia /3
Unlike Syria, the Ukraine war has showed inadequacies in Russian technology
Therefore, Chinese defence companies have new opportunities and won't risk sanctions by supplying Russia /3
Overtly aiding Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine would eviscerate China's soft power in Eastern Europe
Other countries in the 16+1 economic bloc could follow Lithuania's path and divest from China /4
Other countries in the 16+1 economic bloc could follow Lithuania's path and divest from China /4
China has been willing to circumvent US sanctions, typically after feigned divestments
After appearing to cut off oil imports from Iran, China now imports more oil from Iran than pre-sanctions
Reports that China cut off cash to Venezuela were followed by more support /5
After appearing to cut off oil imports from Iran, China now imports more oil from Iran than pre-sanctions
Reports that China cut off cash to Venezuela were followed by more support /5
This suggests that US concerns about Chinese economic aid to Russia are more credible
Russia can pay its debts with the yuan, Chinese companies will still purchase Russian oil and reports about China cutting off airline parts were ultimately unsubstantiated /6
Russia can pay its debts with the yuan, Chinese companies will still purchase Russian oil and reports about China cutting off airline parts were ultimately unsubstantiated /6
To summarize, China's influence is maximized through being a spectator rather than a participant in Ukraine
China will help Russia economically and increase Moscow's dependency, but avoid taking intervening militarily in a high-risk manner /7
China will help Russia economically and increase Moscow's dependency, but avoid taking intervening militarily in a high-risk manner /7
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