Sam Greene Profile picture
Mar 13 11 tweets 4 min read
It is excellent news that the British government has finally resolved to get out of the way and begin to allow the country to provide the support -- including shelter here in the UK -- for Ukrainian refugees that millions of Brits are aching to provide.

However...
This isn't done yet. As @sundersays lays out, the gov't still hasn't said exactly how this is going to work, and there's tons of room for this to go wrong.

The public will have to keep enormous pressure @ukhomeoffice and @pritipatel if Ukrainians are to avoid the hostile environment that afflicts every other entrant to the UK.
How can you help #ukrainerefugees? Raise your voice. Write to your MP, to the PM and to @pritipatel. More importantly, get together with your neighbours and colleagues. Decide what you can do, and then tell the gov't you want to do it.
There is a role for every corporation, community foundation, religious congregation, school and university to play here -- but it needs to be a proactive role, not a reactive one.
We can no longer wait for the gov't to determine the country's policy towards refugees on behalf of the British people. We have to define our own policy, and drag the gov't along kicking and screaming.
So if you are part of an organisation or institution that can help, tell the gov't that you are ready to help -- and then tell the gov't what it needs to do. Tell them that you need streamlined sponsorship and visa procedures, and facilitated access to schools and social care.
And tell them that the gov't needs to open its own purse. Millions of ordinary households are ready and willing to help, despite skyrocketing costs of living and continuing austerity. But the gov't must not outsource British generosity entirely to the public.
Lastly, remember what we're fighting for here. We're fighting for the dignity and humanity of more than 2 million human beings forced from their homes in one of the largest wars in living memory.
And we're fighting for our own dignity and humanity as a nation unwilling to continue to allow its government to turn our collective back on others. When we win this fight -- and we must -- we will set the standard for British refugee policy for decades to come.
Oh, and one more thing. I write this as an immigrant to the UK, and as a newly minted British citizen. But I am also an American citizen, and it's time for @POTUS and @StateDept to step up, too.

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More from @samagreene

Mar 11
So, I wrote last week that Putin is fighting two wars: one in Ukraine, and another against his own public.

Scratch that: he's fighting four. The other two are a political battle with his own elite, and a geo-economic war on some of Russia’s closest allies.

(Another 🧵)
For the full story without the Twitter cacophony, see this week's TL;DRussia. Highlights follow below.

tldrussia.substack.com/p/careful-who-…
The contours of Putin's fight with the Russian elite are detailed here:
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/0…
Read 15 tweets
Mar 5
Do Russians support the war?

Short answer: We don't know.

Longer answer: What you think you know is probably wrong.

(A quick 🧵)
If you're following the news, you've probably seen polls suggesting that ~60% of Russians support the war. That's problematic, for a number of reasons, which I'll try to explain here.
First things first: there's an excellent piece on this in @meduzaproject by @abessudnv (in Russian).

meduza.io/feature/2022/0…
Read 20 tweets
Mar 3
Vladimir Putin is increasingly fighting two wars: one in Ukraine, and one at home.

A week in, neither is going terribly well.

(A 🧵, in case that wasn't obvious.)
A summary of key points follow below. For the full story in a less cacophonous setting, see the latest TL;DRussia, which dropped yesterday. (And subscribe -- it's free!)

tldrussia.substack.com/p/home-to-roost
First, as @LawDavF has explained, Russia's invasion isn't going according to plan, and while Russia can still achieve its military objectives, it will come at an increasing cost.

samf.substack.com/p/russias-plan…
Read 23 tweets
Feb 28
So, as always, mixed signals, with basically two avenues of interpretation: either things are about to get better, or they're about to get a lot worse.
Here's what we know. The Russians and Ukrainians met, talked at some length, released very similar statements confirming that talks would continue, and returned to Moscow and Kyiv for consultations.

unian.ua/politics/u-zel…
But that's only half the story. The other half is that Kharkiv came in for the most brutal air and artillery assault of the war to date (as best I can tell), attacks on Kyiv renewed, and Russia continued to mass troops and equipment outside the capital.
Read 23 tweets
Feb 27
Anti-war protests in Russia do not appear to be waning. Per @OvdInfo, a further 2700 arrests today in 51 cities, bringing the total number of arrests since the invasion to nearly 6k.
Protests appear smaller than the Jan/Feb 2021 protests around Navalny’s arrest, but maybe not by much (good numbers are hard to come by). And the more frequently we see scenes like 👇, the bigger they’ll get.
The real question, though, is when scenes like the one above begin to interact with scenes like the one below, where people queue to get money out of their bank accounts:
Read 7 tweets
Feb 27
Question for those who actually understand these things: @LawDavF @james_acton32 @CameronJJJ @KofmanMichael — When Putin orders nuclear forces on “special preparedness”, what does that mean in practice? And what impact does that have on the posture of US forces?
The rhetoric is one thing — and entirely subject to interpretation. But presumably these sorts of orders also have a technical side to them, which can have its own consequences. Trying to understand that.
Apologies if you’ve written about this already and I’ve not been able to find it.
Read 4 tweets

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