Gut wrenching. Key point: a #NFZ wouldn’t prevent this. There are 2 main air operations: Defensive Counter Air (DCA) & Offensive Counter Air, Surface Attack (SA). An NFZ comes under DCA. 2/
To target RU rockets/artillery *inside Ukraine* you need Close Air Support (CAS), a subset of Offensive Counter Air Surface Attack (OCA SA) missions. 3/
Now here is where it gets complicated. If you’re going launch CAS platforms, you need JTACs on the ground to manage collateral damage estimates (qualified targeteers on the ground w/ UKR ground troops).
Typhoon in CAS role. Dropping a PGM (Paveway bomb). 5/
Even more complicated: CAS in Afghanistan, Iraq etc was in a permissive environment (no air threat for CAS crews). UKR isn’t a permissive CAS environment. So:
CAS platforms would either need to be dual role (AGM missiles and A2A), not ideal if you’re single seat.6/
OR, planning & launching SEAD packages (Suppression of Enemy Air Defence) to support the CAS jets. Now, SEAD needs to take care of RU SAMs, Fighters & IR MANPADs. The latter is an impossible task. SAMs move and would need the HARM missile to effective targeting. 7/
As you can see. An NFZ won’t stop the targeting of civilian infrastructure. OCA SA and CAS could. But requires an enormous ramping up of assets, logistics and risk. And CAS assets would be operating in a non-permissive air environment. Hope this helps @ZelenskyyUa.
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#Ukraine| thread here by @aldin_ww showing RU Su-25 Frogfoot ac ultra-low level over Donetsk. The Frogfoot is a RU Close Air Support platform [CAS], and an old one - 1975. And from what I can see, the pair are manoeuvring over Donetsk in what looks like a show of force 2/
Cont’d: the pair have no precision guided munitions (PGMs). Just rocket pods and dumb bomb pylons. This recent video below is one of the Su-25s that took a MANPADs to its rear. There’s a number of takeaways from these videos. 3/
3. #Ukraine| the U.S, U.K and other NATO partners are well versed in CAS using multiple modern platforms and PGM weaponry to degrade the enemy. The U.K have been using Typhoon w/ Paveway 500lb PGMs, and Storm Shadow (inertial nav missiles) in N.Iraq. F-35 now in the mix. 4/5.
Agree w/ @jensstoltenberg. If the aim is to disrupt and deter RU use of Ukraine airspace, Stinger is your option. Lots of them, closely monitored by SF. Benefits?
1. Air Crews are shit scared of Stinger which has superior counter counter measures. 2/
When I flew in Iraq and Afghanistan, even the idea of MANPADs being part of our threat, created all sorts of additional protocols. And Stinger, that’s a nightmare. As soon as a RU ac is taken out by Stinger, RU aircrews’ morale will head south. 3/
The logistical tail of creating a 24/7 NFZ is huge. Where will the NATO ac be located? Baltic Air Policing is based out of Lithuania and Estonia. If based out of there, tanking will be required, and you risk Putin striking the bases. Escalation. 4/
War is brutal. It shows you sadness and despair that stays with you forever, no matter how good life might get in the future. If they are extremely lucky, they’ll walk away with their limbs in tact. But mentally, they are likely to be haunted. #Ukraine 2/
2. #Ukraine| I do admire them. It’s an unnecessary fight for national survival. The alternative isn’t any better - living under Putin. But the following days, weeks, and months will rely on a lot of luck and organic judgement. 3 days training gives them next to nothing. 3/
3. #Ukraine| while just a few hours away from Kyiv, in London, Paris, Madrid, Berlin and other major European capitals, we in the West go about our days pretty much as normal, these young lads will be embarking on a journey with low odds of survival. 4/
Just look at city’s like Aleppo in Syria to learn no one wins from this. But the civilian population loses desperately. It will take decades to reconstruct. Kharkiv’s citizens will be displaced, forced to find a new life. Then vilified for hoping to find a better life 😞#Ukraine
2. #Ukraine| evidence suggesting Putin is using cluster munitions in #Kharkiv.
The Convention on Cluster Munitions (CMs) was established in 2010. It bans the munition & requires member countries to clear areas contaminated by cluster munition remnants within 10 years 3/
Abbott is pushing a lie to protect incompetence. There is no Federal oversight of the Texas Grid, ergo fewer regulations (sound familiar) - so point one: state legislature needs reform. 2/
2. Point 2: there were clear signs the grid would get overloaded under extreme cold conditions. Why? Due to a vacuum of regulations mandating winterization of turbines and power generators. This from sources, in Texas!
3. Point 3: Of the power shortfall that hit Texas, over 80% was due to problems at coal and gas fired plants. Power generators were just not winterized. Decisions to do so have been ignored since the 1990s.
The caveats in this memo are bordering criminal. As a military warfighter for 20yrs w/ 10 op tours, it’s clear Trump’s Defense Sec stripped the National Guard of the right equipment to:
a) defend themselves/others.
b) surveillance.
c) manœuvre (helicopters). 2/
2. #CapitolRiots| Given the gun laws in the U.S, it’s utterly dangerous to strip National Guard w/ a capability that can defend against protestors who have access to AR-15 assault rifles, pipe bombs etc. Riot Police in France are better equipped to deal w/ the Yellow Jackets. 3/
3. #CapitolRiots| Serious questions need to be asked about the Command and Control (C2). The orders to mobilize and the conversations that came from Trump’s people to place National Guard soldiers at risk. What were the integration plans w/ police? Who was in charge that day?