Agree w/ @jensstoltenberg. If the aim is to disrupt and deter RU use of Ukraine airspace, Stinger is your option. Lots of them, closely monitored by SF. Benefits?

1. Air Crews are shit scared of Stinger which has superior counter counter measures. 2/
2. #Ukraine #NFZ

When I flew in Iraq and Afghanistan, even the idea of MANPADs being part of our threat, created all sorts of additional protocols. And Stinger, that’s a nightmare. As soon as a RU ac is taken out by Stinger, RU aircrews’ morale will head south. 3/
3. #Ukraine #NFZ

The logistical tail of creating a 24/7 NFZ is huge. Where will the NATO ac be located? Baltic Air Policing is based out of Lithuania and Estonia. If based out of there, tanking will be required, and you risk Putin striking the bases. Escalation. 4/
4. #Ukraine #NFZ

We shouldn’t underestimate the risk of escalation. Consider this scenario: an IL-76 flies into UKR airspace w/ 50+ RU paratroopers on it. You can a) take it out w/ a Stinger fired by UKR forces. Or b) if an NFZ, a NATO pilot has to make the call. I’d take a).
5. #Ukraine #NFZ Update:

Waking up to footage circulating on Twitter of what looks like 2x RU air MANPADs shoot downs. The first here, what looks a Mi-24 Hind w/ gear up.

Note: some saying it’s a Mi-35. Same fuselage as Mi-24, updated avionics/systems Mi-35 is export version 6/
6. #Ukraine #NFZ

Firstly the video looks legit (not DCS - Digital Combat Sim). Would like to geo-locate and verify w/ footage of wreckage.

Some questioning why there would be a camera? When I flew helis in high threat areas, low, fast and trying not to pattern set was key.

7/
7. #Update #NFZ

Mi-24 is tracking lowest part of terrain here. If you’re a FIM-92 Stinger team & you see pattern setting, you set up the ambush to throw the missile down the throat of the heli. If there’s an IR Jammer it’ll be to the rear. Max vulnerability from front sector 8/
8. #Ukraine #NFZ

MANPADs shot is on the nose, and close range. Giving the pilot no chance of evasion or decoy w/ flares. Looks like a good ambush set up. And not an opportunity shot. 9/
9. #Ukraine #NFZ

Hard to say type of MANPADs? We know UKR is being sent thousands of FIM-92 Stingers which (if serviceable) have superior counter, counter measures (flare rejection). No flares ejected here. Shot-to-impact was less than 1sec. A nightmare for the crew 10/
10. #Ukraine #NFZ

Why do I know this? I was a Tactics/Weapons Instructor teaching all UK mil heli pilots how to evade ground and air threats in combat zones. From IR to Radar guided air-to- air and ground-to air-threats. 11/
11. #Ukraine #NFZ

This next shoot down you can’t see the MANPADs, but the trajectory of the ac indicates a shoot down (in my experience).
12. #Ukraine #NFZ

From these wreckage photos, this ac can be identified as an Su-34. Again. Would be useful to get-locate. 13/
13. #Ukraine #NFZ

Pilots ejected. Condition of pilots I’m unaware of. 14/
14. #Ukraine #NFZ

I initially thought these were flares ejected by the Su-34 pilot. But they burn for too long. So my best suggestion is fragments from engine of the ac. 15/
#Ukraine #NFZ

Summary: as more MANPADs flood into UKR from the West, especially FIM-92 Stinger, these occurrences will become more frequent. As a former assault heli pilot/instructor, this threat is a nightmare for RU aircrews. History tells us morale/efficacy will plummet.
16. #Ukraine #NFZ

Seeing videos purportedly of the Su-34 crew (2) that were shot down (see thread above). One pilot survived, one killed (footage of dead pilot I won’t post). While the pilots were out to kill, I’m encouraged to see UKR forces seemingly applying PoW status.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Mikey Kay 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Mikey Kay 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @MikeyKayNYC

Mar 4
War is brutal. It shows you sadness and despair that stays with you forever, no matter how good life might get in the future. If they are extremely lucky, they’ll walk away with their limbs in tact. But mentally, they are likely to be haunted. #Ukraine 2/
2. #Ukraine| I do admire them. It’s an unnecessary fight for national survival. The alternative isn’t any better - living under Putin. But the following days, weeks, and months will rely on a lot of luck and organic judgement. 3 days training gives them next to nothing. 3/
3. #Ukraine| while just a few hours away from Kyiv, in London, Paris, Madrid, Berlin and other major European capitals, we in the West go about our days pretty much as normal, these young lads will be embarking on a journey with low odds of survival. 4/
Read 4 tweets
Feb 28
Just look at city’s like Aleppo in Syria to learn no one wins from this. But the civilian population loses desperately. It will take decades to reconstruct. Kharkiv’s citizens will be displaced, forced to find a new life. Then vilified for hoping to find a better life 😞#Ukraine
2. #Ukraine| evidence suggesting Putin is using cluster munitions in #Kharkiv.

The Convention on Cluster Munitions (CMs) was established in 2010. It bans the munition & requires member countries to clear areas contaminated by cluster munition remnants within 10 years 3/
3. #Ukraine| destroy their cluster munition stocks w/in 8 years, and provide assistance for victims.

CMs spread multiple bomblets or submunitions indiscriminately over a wide area, which can be devastating for civilians caught in a strike. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 17, 2021
Abbott is pushing a lie to protect incompetence. There is no Federal oversight of the Texas Grid, ergo fewer regulations (sound familiar) - so point one: state legislature needs reform. 2/
2. Point 2: there were clear signs the grid would get overloaded under extreme cold conditions. Why? Due to a vacuum of regulations mandating winterization of turbines and power generators. This from sources, in Texas!
3. Point 3: Of the power shortfall that hit Texas, over 80% was due to problems at coal and gas fired plants. Power generators were just not winterized. Decisions to do so have been ignored since the 1990s.
Read 22 tweets
Jan 31, 2021
#CapitolRiots|

The caveats in this memo are bordering criminal. As a military warfighter for 20yrs w/ 10 op tours, it’s clear Trump’s Defense Sec stripped the National Guard of the right equipment to:

a) defend themselves/others.
b) surveillance.
c) manœuvre (helicopters). 2/
2. #CapitolRiots| Given the gun laws in the U.S, it’s utterly dangerous to strip National Guard w/ a capability that can defend against protestors who have access to AR-15 assault rifles, pipe bombs etc. Riot Police in France are better equipped to deal w/ the Yellow Jackets. 3/
3. #CapitolRiots| Serious questions need to be asked about the Command and Control (C2). The orders to mobilize and the conversations that came from Trump’s people to place National Guard soldiers at risk. What were the integration plans w/ police? Who was in charge that day?
Read 6 tweets
Nov 2, 2020
#COVID19

Thread

1. A key takeaway hitherto in the response to #COVID is the politicisation of some governments’ responses that absolutely do not place the citizen’s health as a priority. More, the response takes a populist theme generated by a base leveraged by a politician 2/
2. There’s no better example of this populist response to a pandemic leveraged by a politician, than what we’re witnessing in the U.S.

The results of Trump’s populist policies fuelled by his base have created 9 million+ reported cases; 3.6 million recovered: 230,000+ dead. 3/
3. What is critical for us as a society to acknowledge, is twofold:

#1: that politicians like Trump & Farage do not have your best interests as a priority,

#2: and for society to seek trusted medical & scientific evidence to inform what is actually best for themselves 4/
Read 7 tweets
Oct 24, 2020
#COVID19|

THREAD

Important scientific update from the @TheLancet — one of the world’s oldest medical journals used by many epidemiologists I have spoken to for navigating COVID.

*Ignore the political BS, read here what you need to know* 2/

thelancet.com/journals/lance…
2. #COVID19 @TheLancet Update:

• COVID is highly infectious, combined w/ the susceptibility of unexposed populations to a new virus, creates conditions for rapid community spread. The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 is several-fold higher than that of seasonal influenza 3/
3. #COVID19 *LONG COVID*

• Infection can lead to persisting illness, including in young, previously healthy people (ie, long COVID). Yes - you can have be seriously debilitated even if you’re young 4/
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(