Thread by @TrentTelenko

This is an important WW1 history note vis-a-vis' Russian artillery use in Ukraine.

None of the Russian arty ammo stocks being used now in Ukraine were planned for by Putin's military, just like happened with the belligerents at the beginning of WW1.👇👇👇
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https://twitter.com/therealjnic/status/1503613813064667136

WW1 & WW2 history gives us some clues/signs to look for as to whether Russia has such shortages

o Reduced artillery use
o Much higher dud rate due to use of "time expired" ammunition whose propellent & explosives are unstable
o Substitution of mortars for heavier artillery
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And by "mortar substitution," I mean we will be seeing Russian made 240mm mortars in action.

Text via Strategy page

"This Russian 240mm mortar remains useful despite short range (about 9,700 meters) because it is accurate and effective at that range,
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strategypage.com/htmw/htart/art…

especially if firing at fortifications or in urban areas. The 240mm mortar fires a shell that can carry a variety of payloads. The basic high-explosive version can create lethal fragments out to 150 meters. But what has kept the 240mm mortar in use is the anti-fortification
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shell can go through several meters of earth and concrete to destroy an underground bunker or troops firing from the basement of a multi-story building. One of the incendiary shells can set fire to most of a large structure, which is useful when firing at warehouses or factory
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buildings. There is a rocket assisted 240mm shell with a range of 20 kilometers (but a smaller warhead and less accuracy). There is also a laser guided shell for precise targeting."

Look for them in Kharkiv & Mariupol because Russian railway logistics favor their use there.
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Artillery shell shortages have been a feature of every large artillery war, every time they have been fought.

See NY Times regards 1950's Korea:

nytimes.com/1953/05/09/arc…
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Given the highly flawed assumptions of Putin's 15-day Special Operation "Bunglekrieg."

A shell shortage pause from lack of shell stocks is something we can look forward too.

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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1501799537773531136