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Imran Lakha | Options Insight Profile picture
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Mar 15 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
0/ All eyes seem to be on the BTC coil formation and what effects, if any, tomorrow’s FOMC will bring for crypto markets.

Stay prepared with this week’s crypto roundup 🧵👇
1/ After a brief pop to 42500 on lighter regulation from Biden administration, #BTC faded once again in line with risk sentiment forming a tight range between 37000 and 42500. This triangle formation look set to break soon, likely on FOMC tomorrow, question is which way? Image
2/ ETH/BTC cross rate seems to be carving out a bottom over last 2 months. Still nothing to get excited about until downtrend resistance broken around 0.07, but if we get a positive catalyst then this has major upside potential. Image
3/ Key takeaways from @glassnode this week: 1)Short term accumulation trends weaker, 2) Seeing more older (+6m) coins being spent, 3) STH holder cohort at all time lows but mainly in loss, risk of capitulation, 4) LTH adding to balances at 7.6x miner issuance rate, LT Bullish. Image
4/ Lots more on-chain and other analysis from @WClementeIII in his newsletter this week.

5/ Realised volatility drifts lower as implieds hold up with so many macro catalysts this week. Volatility risk premium back to around 10 vols. Expect front end implied to drift a bit after FOMC and into Friday DOV auctions. Image
6/ Term structure stays inverted despite low realised, as vega catches a bid. Essentially options not allowed to decay until after FOMC. Long term options had the most demand as lower decay structures preferred. Image
7/ Crypto options flows saw gamma buyers in 18Mar BTC and 25Mar ETH, Bullish directional trades in BTC Apr 42k/50k call spreads and bearish protection trades in Apr ETH 2200P and 2100P causing ETH to go relatively well bid. Image
8/ More detail on flows in @GenesisVol newsletter and @DeribitInsights by @PelionCap
9/ Join our community to get all of this info & more in real-time through our Discord group chat, weekly zoom calls, market reports, & exclusive trade ideas. See link tree in profile.

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More from @options_insight

Imran Lakha | Options Insight Profile picture
Mar 16
0/ Now that the FOMC chopfest is out the way.

Here is our FX & Rates Roundup 🧵👇
1/ Markets were expecting 25bps hike, likely some hawkish guidance to get back some credibility (good luck!), higher dot plot to meet the market pricing and QT guidance. Well we got the higher dots... Image
2/ Markets however decided that confirmation of hiking at every meeting this year was reason to be concerned, given just how bad the FED have been at predicting inflation dynamics. Hike probabilities for this year actually came down. Sell the news! Image
Read 8 tweets
Imran Lakha | Options Insight Profile picture
Mar 14
0/ While the market remains headline sensitive to geopolitical news. Rate hikes and OPEX are likely to be the driver of price action this week.
Get prepared with our first 🧵of the week 👇
1/ SPX broke 4280 support last week and has reset it's range lower to 4150/4325. We see strong support at 4050 which is achievable if Powell delivers a hawkish message to already nervous markets. Otherwise squeeze risk is high on any positive headlines from Russia. Image
2/ VIX was floored around 29 last week as markets remained in short gamma territory and intraday vol was around 2.5% per day (14d ATR). There may be some vol reset post FOMC that can help fuel some buying as vols drift lower and delta charm brings futures buyers. Image
Read 10 tweets
Imran Lakha | Options Insight Profile picture
Mar 9
0/ Next week’s FOMC meeting seems to be on set path to our first rate hike despite talks of slowing growth and headwinds from Russia/Ukraine - get caught up on how FX, bonds, and rates are shaping up this week 🧵👇
1/ Reversal in DXY from just shy of 100 on big "risk on" move with hopes of a Diplomatic solution in Ukraine. Was very overbought and at top of a channel in place since last April.
2/ EUR rallies hard from key long term support zone 1.03-1.08. If this gets broken then opens way to 0.85. EU Defence bonds will likely provide support as people flock to hold new high quality non-US bonds, increasing EUR reserves. European recession odds rising.
Read 8 tweets
Imran Lakha | Options Insight Profile picture
Mar 8
0/ This time last week we were finally seeing some upside volatility in crypto and specifically #BTC. Now it seems as if all of that momentum may have switched over to #Gold ?

Let’s take a deeper look under the hood of crypto markets 🧵👇
1/ After touching 45500 resistance again BTC has quickly faded back in line with risk assets that remain heavy as Ukraine conflict intensifies. Key level to hold is now 36500, a break of which open door towards 29k.
2/ Spike in BTC-RUB volumes showed that some citizens are seeing the benefits of digital assets in times of crisis, a more medium bullish dynamic. Ukraine also managed to raise 10s of millions in donations and BTC being used as a medium of exchange on the ground.
Read 10 tweets
Imran Lakha | Options Insight Profile picture
Mar 7
0/ With US inflation data coming out this week commodities still ripping, don’t be surprised if we see a continued uptick in volatility to piggyback on the ongoing geopolitics dynamics.

Best stay on your toes - 🧵👇
1/ SPX chopped around in a range last week with the 4400/4450 area capping the market and 4280 support tested multiple times. Support was finally broken today (as expected) and we are now sitting at key 4225 area. Next key supports below are 4120/4050. Image
2/ Europe and EM stocks underperformed on a relative basis where Russia/Ukraine consequences are being felt the most. Biggest outflow ever from European equities as investors were caught wrong-footed from beginning of 2022. Image
Read 9 tweets
Imran Lakha | Options Insight Profile picture
Feb 22
0/ What are crypto markets signalling right now?

To find out check out Option's insight weekly Tuesday crypto breakdown below 🧵👇
1/ Strong correlation to risk assets after rejecting key resistance levels and Russia tensions escalating. No "safe haven" bid as many had hoped for as the marginal crypto investor is trading this like a high beta risk asset. Tighter FED policy will cast a shadow this year. Image
2/ ETF flows have picked up suggesting some insto bid and also libertarians up in arms after Canadian authorities go all in against #freedomconvoy22. Nice piece from @Blockworks_ on #BTC role
Read 11 tweets

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