Good thread confirming Ukraine is loosing each day more precious ground, since days now and Mariupol is a martyr-city.

With Russia so much in advantage, I am extremely worried ab the peace talks which could lead to Minsk 3, huge ressources lost to Russia, grey areas & ruins. 1/6
Discourses heard in the US are grim too, "Will be independent Ukraine lot longer than Putin" (Blinken)

= It feels more & more like "Sorry Ukraine, you were at wrong place/time, get over it, we have a football match to watch."
If Putin stays in power for another 10 years than we
will have lost everything.
1) Occident word : EU/US will lose credibility as powers and the "Never negociate with terrorists."
Obama's mistake about red line in Syria is being repeated at huge scale.
2) Ukraine may vanish. "But we will rebuild" How ? With who ?
With Russia taking
Donbass and South ? No commerce with RU & Belarus ? Elite kidnapped/killed ?

Ukrainians are brave but who will want to grow children in the ruins of Kharkiv ? Mariupol was a growing city, a symbol post Donbass war, now it will be synonymous with massacre or will be Russian.
3) Ressources. I don't believe a second Russia will pay as long as Putin, his way of thinking stays in power.
He will take full control of the south access to Black Sea and more, while Europe will welcome qualified Ukrainians and get tired of the poor ones.
I want to be wrong but
look at where Syria was and is.

As for the military part, it has been days now since arms were sent to Ukraine. The only visible effect seems to make defeat slower, while Europe keeps funding Putin with oil and gas.
Putin is winning. 6/6 #YouDontBringAKnifeToAGunfight

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More from @maidperdu

Mar 18
#Honte & défaite de l'Occident #OccidentDefeat #Ukraine @JY_LeDrian :
"Si Russie emploie "moyens chimiques ou bactériologiques", cela constituerait une escalade intolérable et entraînerait des sanctions économiques massives et radicales, sans tabou"📜🔽
parismatch.com/Actu/Internati…
Le Drian déclare aussi : "Si attaques chimiques ou bactériologiques, nous saurions qui en serait le seul responsable"

Enfin et surtout "La logique russe (...) repose sur le triptyque habituel: des bombardements indiscriminés, des soi-disant 'corridors' humanitaires conçus pour
accuser ensuite l’adversaire de ne pas les respecter et des pourparlers sans autre objectif que de *faire semblant de négocier*."
bfmtv.com/international/…

Par ailleurs Macron a discuté avec Zelensky jeudi soir, 1ère fois depuis samedi.

Ridicule et hypocrisie deviennent la
Read 20 tweets
Mar 12
The most frequent comments in the past week have been about Russia slow progresses, bad coordination/com/logistic, etc.
All true but we are now in a new phase, where Putin reassessed, is hitting to weaken Ukraine core too, hiding its Kyiv convoy, closing on Mariupol & others.
This may be the beginning of the West defeat. Ukrainians stood up valiantly for 2 weeks, while Russia was trying to limit the damages.

Now that santions are on and only hurtful in long term, Putin hit civilians& infrastructure while West finance daily his war buying Oil & Gas.
EU, once again, is far behind. After the 3 golden days 25-27/02 when strong/quick decisions were taken in a united front, today we hear only threats, *if* the war continues.

History will recall the probable 10 000 deads in Mariupol or maternity bombed in Kharkiv were not enough.
Read 15 tweets
Feb 26
#Ukraine Day 3 is ending and I am very worried that we passed a first pick of the war, clearly favorable to Ukraine, regaining Sumy being one the numerous victories of the day.
Now, let me take you to a nightmarish scenario, based on the recent tweets.
1) The numbers of Ukrainian
casualties is surprisingly low, for no major cities to fall. To this we can add the numerous video ridiculing Russian army.
Hypothesis : Putin did believe he could win without sweating, attacking on 4 fronts, he sent the B-team and actually asked to limit
civilian casualties.
2) West finally reacted fully by :
a) Money : to the first financial sanctions we can add now Swift and maybe on the CBR.
This, unexpected, could hit far more the Ruble than it did recently (-10%) and quickly.
b) Military aid, finally. Let's hope it will not
Read 20 tweets
Feb 29, 2020
#Coronavirus D'après ces 3 art, il se répand 3 fois + q la grippe saisonnière et serait bien + mortel pour les plus de 60 ans.
Les données sont *jeunes* mais ne risque-t-on pas #MourirEnBonneSanté ? 1/6

liberation.fr/checknews/2020…
sante.lefigaro.fr/article/corona…
futura-sciences.com/sante/actualit… Image
L'hypothèse de travail c'est le risque d'une grippe espagnole mais ces données n'excluent pas le scénario d'un mal similaire à la grippe saisonnière : 300-600 k morts/an. Le taux de mortalité pourrait diminuer, s'il se confirme que beaucoup de contaminés n'ont pas été détectés.
Quel est le problème d'une surréaction ?
Les tweets de départ donnent une idée :
- une économie qui chute (Chine),
- une panique qui crée des ruptures de stock
- les pauvres & non-employés qui sont moins protégés que les autres.

Ça passera vite ? Pas sûr.
Read 25 tweets

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