Thread by @MisterSpread

#analysis #Bitcoin #DXY #SP500 #EGLD

1/12 Hello everyone,

#Bitcoin and the whole crypto market passed yesterday another important pressure test. The FED Reserve raised the rates with 25bps. As expected and as we discussed previously, the effects were minimal on risk-ON assets.

2/12 DXY printed in the last 2 weeks a DoubleTop W pattern, which is a bearish reversal pattern. Not even the FED raising the rates couldn't help the DXY push above the monthly resistance at 99.4 region.

3/12 However we still need DXY to close 2-3 days under 98 to confirm this downtrend, expose 96 region and trigger a rally from RiskON assets such as SP500, Bitcoin and $EGLD. Any bounce from DXY and a daily close above 99 would invalidate this pattern.

4/12 Since the DXY printed the DoubleTop pattern, it was normal that the SP500 started to carve a DoubleBottom W pattern. The demand zone between 4125-4165 acted as a strong support and strong bounces came every time from this area.

5/12 The macrotrend is still bearish since 4th of January, so we need the SP500 to close daily above 4380 area and print the first HigherHighs of this structure. The next big test after is 4200-4500 which is an important supply zone.

6/12 Bitcoin had some interesting few weeks with spikes to 44k and 42k, which were quite rapidly sold. The good part about this Price Action is that the dips were bought even more aggressive than the price pumps. Current macro structure is bullish with new HHs and HLs.

7/12 The levels that I'm keeping a close eye on are: 37k and 35k on the downside and 40k,42k and 44k to the upside. A daily close above the 0.5 Fibo level situated at 44.5k area will expose 46k and potentially 50k.

8/12 After EGLD broke out from the downtrend channel vs BTC and consolidated for a few days, buyers managed to push the price to the demand zone at 3500-3675 sats. Because BTC ranged again, EGLD managed to rally 20% in EGLDBTC pair and hit the 1st supply zone at 4000-4200 sats.

9/12 If BTC continues to range between 38-42k and the good news continue to come from #Elrond team, we can see EGLDBTC pierce through 4200 sats area. A close above 4000 sats ( EGLDUSDT $160 ) and after 4200 sats will open the doors for the buyers towards $180-190.

10/12 The current macro-economic landscape is still uncertain and to this uncertainty we have now for almost 3 weeks the geo-political tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

11/12 There is no surprise there is still a lot of capital on the sidelines given these conditions, capital that most likely will and has to be deployed in order to not lose it's purchasing power.

12/12 Bitcoin held up remarkably well in the past month, showing that it's becoming a maturing asset that can withstand headwinds and people understand more and more it's superior properties vs all types of FIAT.

Stay safe and green trades !