From Liquidity Euphoria to Hangover phase

1/ Since early 2023, I’ve been aggressively long U.S. equities, Bitcoin & the liquidity-fueled soft landing narrative.

But now, the regime has changed. Bookmark this for when the headlines catch up, a thread 🧵👇: 2/ I’ve flipped bearish on U.S. equities and gone neutral on Bitcoin. For a while now, I’ve been steadily building up my cash positions.

This isn’t fear, it’s informed positioning. In this thread, I’ll break down what changed beyond the already-discussed weekly S&P structure.

Satoshi's Nightmare

Imagine Satoshi Nakamoto's reaction to a #Bitcoin Spot ETF owned by BlackRock. Let's revisit the whitepaper and understand why such a concept might be contrary to Satoshi's vision, a🧵👇: 1/ Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash:

In the whitepaper, Satoshi envisioned Bitcoin as a peer-to-peer electronic cash system.

An ETF, especially one owned by a major institution like BlackRock, introduces intermediaries. This goes against the direct p2p nature Satoshi aimed for.

Hi everyone,

Thought is a good idea to start 2023 with a thread about some macro correlations, explained in an easier way in order for everyone to understand the connection between FED Interest Rate> US Bonds> A potential Recession> Higher Unemployment Rate> higher crime rate.👇 2/ Why did I leave the last link of this chain > "Potentially higher crime rate" , because I wanted to deconstruct @michaeljburry thought process and understand why the 2 stocks which make up 50% of his portfolio are private prisons US companies: GEO Group & CoreCivic.

Hello everyone,

1/23 This thread is dedicated to @SantiagoAuFund - Dollar Milkshake Theory.
I thought it's a good idea to break down the "ingredients" in DXY milkshake, but from TA only perspective.
Let's dive in 🧵👇:

Start with the video below first.

2/23 Good, now that you have watched the video I want to remind everyone that "The Dollar Milkshake Theory" is a THEORY not a certainty that those events will happen and that all #USD scenarios will play out.

Same thing for my TA breakdown, so take it with a grain of salt.

1/6 Busy day today in the markets,

Since I'm the type of trader who guides himself by the Price Action mainly, I prefer the phrase "show me the charts and I'll tell you the news" by Bernand Baruch.

Some thoughts below about #EURUSD #DXY .

CC: @JLinWins @deerpointmacro

https://twitter.com/JLinWins/status/1563206357863436288

2/6 Pre-Powell speech we had some headlines from #ECB officials signaling a potential 75bps rate hike due to #inflation and problems in the #EURO zone.
This caused $EURUSD to tap the supply area and perform a beautiful liquidity grab before resuming the current trend.

#analysis #10YRUS #DXY #crypto #SP500 #EURUSD #Bitcoin #ETH #EGLD

1/16 Good evening everyone,

All eyes where on the CPI, Core CPI and PPI reports this week. The slowdown in inflation is actually a confirmation that FED's demand destruction program starts to be felt by markets. 2/16 The 10YUS bonds are retesting now the "Neckline" of the daily Head&Shoulders. If buyers manage to push the price beyond 2.9% and close above it on a weekly closing basis, it means that the breakout was a fakeout and that might put a break to the RiskOn assets rally.

1/8 GM everyone,

Time for some trade brake down as one of the people in the comments was confused on why the SL was moved into profit.

Q: why move the SL to profit, nothing changed.
A: The whole regime of the trade changed once is in profit.

https://twitter.com/MisterSpread/status/1556975825291018243

2/8 Q: OK but moving the SL in profit you don't have same RR.
A: Let's extrapolate, from 500 trades if I manage to have SL in profit for 400 of them & 100 closed on usual SL with RR 1/2.5 you think is a good ratio?
This is my "edge" & I'll capitalize on it while minimizing loses

#analysis #DXY #Bitcoin #EGLD #SP500

1/12 Hello everyone,

Waited for the dust to settle after FED Chair Powell speech. SP500 had an intraday decline of 1.25% when J.Powell said that they will use 50bps rate hike starting May if needed. 2/12 The effects were minimal and the traders bought back late into the session managing to put SP500 only on a -0.25% day. This continuation of the trend after the breakout from the channel, enforces the idea that a current bottom in stock might be in.

#analysis #DXY #Bitcoin #EGLD # SP500

1/13 Hello everyone,

As discussed here:

https://twitter.com/MisterSpread/status/1504408466663915520?s=20&t=fbrDk2lZ2ixBbsqHAIyWgg

The DXY continued its move lower, broke the Neckline from the DoubleTop pattern but bounced from 97.710 area and failed to print a new LowerLow. 2/13 DXY had a strong rejection from the 99.2 area and closed the week red. The "Double Top" is an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern that forms after an asset reaches a high price two consecutive times with a moderate decline between the two highs.

#analysis #Bitcoin #DXY #SP500 #EGLD

1/12 Hello everyone,

#Bitcoin and the whole crypto market passed yesterday another important pressure test. The FED Reserve raised the rates with 25bps. As expected and as we discussed previously, the effects were minimal on risk-ON assets. 2/12 DXY printed in the last 2 weeks a DoubleTop W pattern, which is a bearish reversal pattern. Not even the FED raising the rates couldn't help the DXY push above the monthly resistance at 99.4 region.

#Bitcoin  #EGLD #FED

Buna dimineata,

1/4 De maine revenim la #analiza pentru ca in contextul actual nimeni nu poate sa stie directia instrumentelor financiare inaintea deciziei FED.
Mai jos un comentariu de acum ceva timp de pe grupul EGLD-trader:
t.me/ElrondTrader_RO 2/4 Acum 2 luni se vorbea pe Twitter ca @federalreserve o sa majoreze dobanda cu 100bps(1%). Va spuneam de atunci ca sunt slabe sanse sa vedem asta si ca am vazut “dansul” asta al FED si in alti ani.
Acum o luna au redus asteptarile la 50bps, iar recent la 25bps deci 0,25% 🤦🏻‍♂️.

Salutare,

Am intrat pe ultima suta de metri cu vanzarea colectiei #ParadigmShift asa ca pana la extragerea celor 25 de premii vreau sa va mai dezvalui o supriza pe care v-am pregatit-o: Toti cumparatorii intra automat in tragerea la sorti pentru un loc pe WL de 50 de locuri al unei noi colectii de NFTuri din ecosistemul #Elrond .
Colectia va avea cel mai mare reward pool de pana acum din toate colectiile #Elrond .

P.S: More to come ;)

grammawines.ro/nft/product/pa…