Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #FED

Most recents (24)

@pvmextrader En el va a ser del mismo peso que las elecciones de #EEUU, la manera en que salga #UK de la zona #Euro, la 2a ola de #COVID_19 en #Europa sobre todo en UK #UKLockdown, y la decepción después del optimismo irracional por los estímulos que no han funcionando en Europa.
@pvmextrader Y al contrario, yo creo que mientras más se acerquen las elecciones de #EEUU va a haber mayor incertidumbre y los tiburones se refugiarán más en #USD, y para diciembre 2020 se vencen los primeros bonos que compró la #FED y se tienen que liquidar en #USD. Milkshake dollar theory.
@pvmextrader Y no perder de vista que la semana pasada se perdió la correlación negativa #stocks / #USD, es decir, cuando bajaron bolsas voló el #USD y cuando subieron bolsas también subió el #USD, castigando al #oro, #plata #euro y #petroleo, creo que esta correlación puede seguir así.
Read 4 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 09/25/2020…
The lasting misery of coronavirus long-haulers…

#COVID19 #misery
Studying gene function in animal models…

#gene #function
Read 9 tweets
A lot of talk about the role of the #Centralbanks going forward.

I think now would be a good time to recap the market bailout operations during the past few years.

So, a thread on the 'stealth socialization' of the financial markets by the central bankers. 1/20
#Fed #ECB
In late November 2008, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced it would start buying the debt of Government Sponsored Enterprises and mortgage-related securities in the secondary market.

In March 2009, the Fed extended the program to include US Treasuries. QE -program was born. 2/
The #Fed ran three sequential QE -programs.

The Bank of England started its QE program in March 2009, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in October 2010, the European Central Bank (ECB) in March 2015 and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) in July 2015. 3/
Read 21 tweets
1/TrackRecord's Market Musings😎: Fed Puts Ball Firmly In Congress’ Court

22nd Sep, POWELL: “Many of our programs rely on emergency lending powers that require the support of the Treasury Department and are available only in unusual circumstances.”
2/23rd Sep, POWELL: “Have done basically all of the things that we can think of”
3/24th Sep, POWELL: “While households are spending now, perhaps using what's left of money from the $2.3 trillion package passed by Congress in Mar, the risk is they will go through that money, ultimately, and hv to cut back on spending and maybe lose their home or their lease...
Read 8 tweets
I love the deflation/stagflation/inflation discussion. Here is data to help people understand. Current metric by The #Fed for inflation is the PCE which is Consumer Prices rising & declining, that does not include Stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, food, energy, medical cost.
The Fed metric for deflation/inflation is PCE. PCE’s scope includes both urban and rural households; furthermore it considers both expenditures on behalf of consumers by 3 parties and out-of-pocket expenditures.This broader scope means there is a larger total amount of spending
So the goods the Fed tracks are Durable goods are items that last a household for more than three years and typically carry a larger price tag. Examples of durable goods include cars, televisions, refrigerators, furniture, and other similar items.
Read 6 tweets
'Pulling #consumption forward' is an unhelpful euphemism for 'engaging in #capital consumption': more graphically, 'writing cheques the people can't cash'.
Self-sustaining #growth requires coherence between consumption & production not just today, but over time.
1/x #centralbanks
That latter is difficult enough to achieve without #centralbankers & policy-makers in general trying to impose their own vision of the balance (one always narrowly biased to the present) on a system composed of billions of interacting needs & preferences.
The unavoidable (Rumsfeldian) uncertainty -as well as the calculable risks- is made much greater when every fluctuation today -itself a direct result of IN-coherence, largely inflicted from above- is greeted with yet another blunt-force trauma assault on the capital structure
Read 9 tweets
What’s happening to #Tech stocks and the markets in September 2020 and what is #FED really worried about - is the #Equities or #Bonds ?

Markets never work in a straight line up or straight line down , every market has to go through a period of correction/consolidation to resume
its journey

NASDAQ was a overbought market in June to August 2020 , but we are not in any serious trouble to disturb the long term bullish trend and why ?

Because Credit Market hasn’t broken down yet , while the media and investors are focused in the Equity markets ,

The QE program was more about buying

1) US Sovereign bonds, called Treasuries

2) US Municipal Bonds

3) US Corporate Bonds
Read 11 tweets
Bloomberg rapporte que les 500 personnes les plus riches du monde ont augmenté leur richesse de 871 milliards depuis le début de l'année.
Ce qui est grave, ce n'est pas que des gens s'enrichissent, mais de savoir que cette richesse est nourrie par la création monétaire de la #FED
Si les riches s'enrichissent grâce à de la création de valeur, alors tant mieux. Mais on est loin de ce cas de figure : les riches s'enrichissent avec de la création monétaire PUBLIQUE qui favorise les possédants grâce aux rachats d'actions et à la spéculation.
Cette situation est d'autant plus révoltante que les dirigeants politiques soutiennent les banques centrales, en nous faisant croire que tout l'argent créé sert l'économie. Seule une partie de la monnaie créée se retrouve dans l'économie réelle sous forme de dettes. Quel cadeau !
Read 3 tweets
Un article en anglais qui décrit les conséquences de la crise sanitaire sur les inégalités de richesse aux États-Unis. Inquiétant pour le futur proche, surtout au niveau de la paix sociale !
(À dérouler pour lire quelques extraits)
#FED #finance…
“Black men and women have recovered about 20 percent of the jobs they lost in the pandemic while white men and women have recovered 40 and 45 percent of their lost jobs, respectively."
"Car company Tesla forced all workers to take a 10 percent pay cut from mid-April until July. In the same period, Tesla stock skyrocketed, and CEO Elon Musk’s net worth has now quadrupled from $25 billion to over $100 billion."
Read 9 tweets
😉They say a picture is worth a 1000 words....
@POTUS #Darktolight
@POTUS A Timecapsule ⏳ #HeKnew 💉
Read 12 tweets
The #FED and all major Central Bankers in the world believe that relentless credit expansion fosters greater economic growth and full employment

The fact is Lower interest rates fosters more debt issuance
What #FED , #SNB , #Euro and #BOJ are been doing is that when economic growth falters for any reason the first action is to push rates lower

But the fact is that there is a limit to how much debt the household, business, and government sectors of the economy can tolerate
To give an example the national #GDP of USA has grown 21X since 1969 and the total Debt including households, businesses, governments, and financials is up by 51X

Also remember aggregate economic growth comes from the sum of labour hours employed and productivity improvements
Read 6 tweets
Les marchés américains sont en train de corriger violemment aujourd'hui. Des baisses prononcées pour les mastodontes #Tesla, #Apple, #Amazon...
La politique monétaire de la #FED a artificiellement dopé les cours des actions, créant ainsi une volatilité néfaste pour l'économie ! Image
Si la correction continue et se transforme en krach, les banques seront touchées à leur tour, et tout le système financier avec.
Le chantage au chaos pourra alors commencer à Wall Street: les financiers demanderont à la #FED l'héroïne monétaire dont ils ne peuvent plus se passer!
Ce cirque de phases de hausses de plus en plus déconnectées du réel, et de baisses de plus en plus violentes, ne s'arrêtera pas tant que les intérêts de Wall Street seront protégées par la Fed.
En attendant, le chômage risque de créer un chaos social fatidique pour l'économie US.
Read 3 tweets
Negative Interest Rates #NIRP do more harm to #Centralbanks than they do good

Times are changing with hard cash to online digital payments
The world has been forced to adapt to new methods of online payment like #Debitcards , #creditcard and #mobilewallet payments
Few use cash and the global elites are using negative interest rates to do the same thing as inflation make money disappear
The U.S. discontinued the use of large-denomination bills in the late 1960s. Until 1969, $500, $1,000, $5,000 and even $10,000 bills were issued and today
the largest bill is a $100 bill, but it has lost 80% of its purchasing power since 1968

Europe has ended the 500 euro note and today the largest note in euros is 200 euros. Existing 500 euro notes will still be legal tender, but new ones will not be produced.
Read 12 tweets
The #Fed wants #inflation

The single biggest issue for the world today is that there is too much debt in the financial system
Globally the debt to GDP ratio is 322%
Amongst G-7 nations, the numbers are striking
The U.S.’s Debt to GDP is 106%
Germany’s Debt to GDP is 61%
Japan’s Debt to GDP is 236 %
The United Kingdom’s Debt to GDP is 85%
Canada’s Debt to GDP is 89%
France’s Debt to GDP is 98%
Germany is the only country that has been aggressively paying down its debt
Germany’s debt to GDP skyrocketed to 82% as its economy collapsed
Now there are three ways to deal with excessive debt

1) Pay it off through growth or fiscal restraint.

2) Default/ restructure

3) Attempt to inflate it away by debasing your currency
Read 7 tweets
#investing during volatile times are challenging
You have to invest in cheap and what has relative value and if you can manage Geo political environment, you have a winner in your hand
The last 20 years especially since 2009 was all about growth stocks and not about value buys
The #Fed , the #ECB, and all central banks were slowly destroying the cost of capital and people were being pushed more towards risk assets , these accelerated tremendously in 2020
Growth was nearly a passive investment, all money managers were pushed into the corner of ..
.. investing room , to give an example consider ETF, the more capital that goes into it, it triggers all of the algorithms to say, stock sector is above its 52-day moving average, and by default it will allocate another one percent
Read 12 tweets
The @federalreserve’s #JacksonHole Policy Symposium has typically been thought of as an event of #academic contemplation, rather than of active #policy innovation, but 2020’s event proved to be the exception to the rule.
That’s because #Fed #ChairPowell surprised many by introducing the #FOMC’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which was not expected until later in the year.
In many respects, the Strategy statement represents a mirror image to the #Fed’s stance more than a generation ago, in August 1979, when Chair Paul #Volcker took over leadership of the central bank…
Read 7 tweets
#Fed #FederalReserve #FedData #Fedgov #Dollar #USD #USDINR

While many people talk about cheap money supply and liquidity , the reality is these are both very different concepts
While the term money simply refers to the supply of money, the term liquidity relates to the interplay between the supply and the demand for money
People demand money primarily in order to facilitate trade. Money offers the holder a greater purchasing power than any other good
Money enables an individual to secure a greater variety of goods than any other good could do i.e. it has a much greater purchasing power
Therefore, when people seek more money they do not want more money in their pockets but rather more purchasing power
Read 10 tweets
La politique monétaire des banques centrales profite aux possédants en actions.
Aux États-Unis, plus de 50% des actions sont possédées par les 1% les plus riches !
Les 50% les plus pauvres ne possèdent pratiquement pas d'actions.
Nous assistons à un hold up, les bras liés !
#FED Image
Gardez ces chiffres en tête quand les défenseurs du système financier et monétaire actuel vous diront que la politique monétaire de la Fed profite à tous aux US car leur système de retraite est un système par capitalisation.
Comment espérer la paix dans un pays où les inégalités sont si prononcées, et où la Fed est une organisation quasi mafieuse au profit d'une minorité de prédateurs économiques.
Read 4 tweets
$GLD $SLV Uno de los factores que han desencadenado el rally del #oro y la #plata es la oferta monetaria M2, provocada por el QE infinito de la #FED y demás bancos centrales, por lo cual, no puede considerarse como una burbuja dichos rallys. Abro hilo. #TRMX #trading #Traders
Otro factor es que los bajos tipos de interés en el mundo, han generado que los #bonos y los #stocks suban de precio y ello ha jalado a los #Commodities pero sobre todo al #oro y la #plata a tener fuertes subas. #TRMX #trading #Traders #trade #Trader #BOLSAMX #SP500 #NASDAQ
Esos 2 factores (QE y tipos de interés negativos) además de generar apetito por riesgo en los inversores, generan una mayor liquidez en la economía, lo que a su vez genera #inflación y recordemos que los metales preciosos se revalorizan con la inflación. #TRMX #BolsaMX #trading
Read 7 tweets
The #Fed Playbook
Aug. 20, 2020

What's up with the Federal Reserve this week? Time fo a thread. 👇

1/ The balance sheet is back above $7 trillion. We are probably not going to go very much below that this year. ImageImageImage
2/ Since the start of the #Fed intervention this year that's $2.8 trillions added.

Sure that's a lot of money... but in percentage that's only a 65% expansion.

There is a lot more room for growth if we compare to what happened after the 2008 crisis. 🧐 ImageImage
3/ But the #FOMC doesn't really have a choice... #stonks need to go up... Image
Read 5 tweets
So biggest casualty of #Fed warning on #US #economy y'day, was #Gold,which dropped 3% to $1951.90 an ounce,within minutes of #FedMinutes

Silver too fell below $28

Rout was not limited to precious metals--#Nasdaq sold off despite #Apple hitting $2 trillion market cap

#CrudeOil whipsawed in tight range with #WTI at $42.83

#Fed's take on economic downturn was nothing new&yet markets collapsed

Only asset which saw aggressive buying was US #Tbills,with 10 yr #bond #yield@ 0.665% Vs previous close of 0.685%

#Dollar had its best day in 2 months
So what does y'day's frenzied buying in #bonds indicate?Is the #RiskOn trade over?

Well,not quite--With $9 trillion of excess global #liquidity sloshing around due to coordinated Central Bank rate cuts,since #Covid_19, equities will move up,albeit with severe bouts of volatility
Read 7 tweets
1/10 This incorrect reading (summarized in the story below) of what’s going on in the TIPS market is pervasive these days.

Here is a refresher of how to interpret signals from the TIPS market (thread).

@LizMcCormickWV @ctorresreporter @jbensondurham…
2/10 The TIPS rate can be expressed as follows:

TIPS Rate =
Expected Average Real Fed Funds Rate +
Real Term Premium +
Liquidity Premium

The liquidity premium reflects normally lower liquidity in the TIPS vs nominal market (investors demand a premium to hold TIPS).
3/10 The breakeven rate can always be expressed as:

Breakeven Rate =
Expected Inflation +
Inflation Risk Premium -
Liquidity Premium

So, the liquidity *adds to* observed TIPS rates and *subtracts from* breakeven rates (that's b/c breakeven=nominal rate - TIPS rate).
Read 10 tweets
One noteworthy aspect of the #COVID19 market has been the success with which the #Fed & other #centralbanks have been able to stem the “Covid Crash” and then help control the recovery. The current backdrop reminds me a bit of the 1942-1946 #QE cycle. Let’s take a look. (THREAD)
1/ After the Great Depression, the government went into high gear during WWII and, in the process, ran up huge government debt. Federal debt as a percent of #GDP jumped to 116% from 39% during the 1st half of the 1940s.
2/ Not only did the Fed monetize the debt by increasing its balance sheet 10-fold, it repressed the entire #yieldcurve by capping short rates at 3/8% & long rates at about 2.5%. #Inflation ran up but, with the #Fed repressing rates at low levels, real rates went negative.
Read 24 tweets
1. News: RUMORS SWIRLING: President Trump’s Recent Actions Indicate Something HUGE Is About to Drop -

Indicates... Deep State & Obama Gang May Finally Face the Music. -Thread 8.9.20… #Trump #Obama #Justice #DeepState
2. News: #Trump #Happening #Storm

President Trump needs to be in a tightly controlled environment while whatever this is goes down.

3. News: Just in time for November Presidential Vote! Nearly 20,000 Fake Driver Licenses Floods into US From China, other Countries to Chicago’s O’Hare airport in past 6 Months… #Trump #Election #VoterID
Read 96 tweets

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