Why is Putin bombing maternity wards and shelters labeled “CHILDREN”? Why does he order reckless attacks on nuclear plants and major dams? Why are Russian soldiers mining humanitarian corridors?
Other than being the epitome of evil, of course. 1/n
#StandWithUkriane #StopPutin
Other than being the epitome of evil, of course. 1/n
#StandWithUkriane #StopPutin
War is the continuation of bargaining by other means. It is an opportunity to convey information to your opponent-information about your capabilities, resolve, and the ability to inflict costs.
One of the two causes of war is private information. Wars occur, because opponents disagree on a peaceful division of some prize. They disagree, because they lack accurate information on each other’s capabilities, resolve, and ability to inflict costs.
Were they able to obtain this information without going to war, they would simply divide the prize in proportion to the true distribution of power plus/minus each party’s cost from war.
The expected costs of war delineate the pre-war bargaining range. E.g, if the distribution of power is 50:50, but side A’s cost of war is 10% of the prize, then A prefers any peaceful deal that gives it at least 40% of the prize to war. A’s expected utility from war is 40=50-10.
When Putin murders newborns, he is sending a credible signal that the costs of fighting him are more than anyone can bear. This is him saying “You may have superior weapons, but the cost I will inflict on you will make you wish you just peacefully handed over the entire prize.”
He is signaling to multiple audiences: to Ukraine (for negotiating power), to his domestic opposition (to prevent mass protests), to the West (for when he issues future ultimatums), and to the rest of what he views as his sphere of influence (to deter anti-government protests).
He is demonstrating that he can inflict costs. The way to stop him is to show that the West can inflict costs that are unbearable to him.
He obviously doesn’t care about human life (including Russians), so NATO needs to get more creative—e.g., seizing assets of his loved ones, a threat to him personally, or his rule.
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