Thread by @olga_chyzh

Here is how the West can #StopPutin without World War III. 1/n

#StandWithUkraine

Putin’s war in Ukraine is NOT just about Ukraine. Remember how it all started? Putin amassed his troops on the Ukrainian border, but what did he do next? He made a list of demands of NATO, not of Ukraine. Here is the list in case you missed that:
theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

The fact that he threatened NATO with an invasion of Ukraine, rather than threatening Ukraine, speaks volumes about his goals and intentions, as well as his view of the current conflict (“conflict” in the broad sense, not just #PutinsWar in Ukraine).

Putin’s grievance is not with Ukraine, it’s with the West. He views the post-Cold War distribution of power as “unfair” to Russia. In his opinion, Russia is entitled to a significantly larger role in global politics than it currently gets.

He outlines this here:
is.muni.cz/th/xlghl/DP_Fi…

His biggest problem is NATO, which he views, mistakenly, as the existential threat to Russia. Just like other Mearsheimer Realists, Putin thinks that powerful actors attack simply because they can—that’s what he does, after all.

In his ideal world, NATO would roll back its membership to what it was prior to its 1997 expansion, at a minimum. In his view, Russia can balance/defend against a smaller NATO, but not today’s NATO.

Putin put a lot of stock in Trump, who he helped elect, and who was open to withdrawing the US from NATO. After that didn’t pan out, Putin had to take matters into his own hands—hence the timing of the war in Ukraine.

Now, Ukraine does not get him to his goal of reversing NATO membership—Ukraine is only the first step. After he is done with Ukraine (however it ends, he will get some kind of guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO), he still has a lot of work to do.

He can try to help re-elect Trump again, but that may not work, as even Republicans now balk at Trump’s undisguised admiration of Putin. The other way is compellence.

The war in Ukraine is a way to test the West’s resolve to defend its values (democracy) and allies (other states he views as belonging to his sphere of influence).

As this war goes on, Putin will continue doing two things: (1) probing to find out exactly how much the West is willing to give up, and (2) signaling his own resolve to stop at nothing (hence, targeting maternity wards).

What the West does in response will determine what Putin does next. People keep saying that Ukraine is not NATO’s war, but that’s not how Putin sees it. From NATO’s perspective, it’s binary: there are members who are defended by article 5 and there are non-members who are not.

From Putin’s perspective, countries exist on the continuum of how much power Russia gets to have over them. In declining order: former Soviet Republics (e.g., Ukraine, the Baltics), then former satellite states (e.g., Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia), and so on.

NATO thinks they are so clear with their “we will NOT defend Ukraine, but we WILL defend Poland,” but to Putin, not defending Ukraine puts in question whether NATO will defend Poland. And he will not stop until he finds out.

The only way he can find out is by further escalation, i.e., threaten to air bomb Poland, threaten nukes, or even use tactical nukes against Poland.

In his calculation, and I think he is right, NATO will not escalate to using strategic nukes against Russia in response to tactical nukes against Poland—so he sees no harm in trying to get what he wants.

Remember, he doesn’t care about his population. Strategic nukes are his only “red line.”

Now, some argue that he is irrational and would use nukes if cornered. While that is not true, that IS what he wants you to believe—that is the result of his successful use of brinkmanship.

Why do I think Putin is rational, in the sense of not wanting to die in a nuclear winter? Because he is the most self-centered person on the planet: he loves photoshoots (remember the horse?), Botox, and whatever else he thinks makes him look good.

He is risk-acceptant, but he is not suicidal. He does not want to die in a nuclear war.

Why do you think he keeps warning NATO that weapons convoys are legitimate targets? Obviously, they are legitimate targets—their entire purpose is to kill his troops. And yet he doesn’t dare attack them, despite much talk. That is because is AS scared of NATO as NATO is of him.

To stop this madness, NATO needs to send a clear signal in a language that Putin understands. They need to convey that enough is enough, and that he will have dire consequences if he does not stop NOW--and MEAN it.

Remember the “I hope I was heard” comment when he warned the West to not help Ukraine? The West needs to respond in kind.

The longer the West waits, the higher the cost. Today these costs are in Ukrainian lives, tomorrow it will be the next target (I use Poland as an example, but it can be any other former satellite).

Although Poland, being in between the Baltics (actual former republics) and Finland (not a republic, but not a NATO state) does, unfortunately, make for a perfect target, given the goal.

He saved his yacht by sailing it to Kaliningrad prior to the invasion. Does somebody who thinks he may soon be dying in a nuclear war worry about a yacht?