Thread by @MarkHertling

I said it yesterday on @cnn, I'll say it again today.

Having worked w/ UKR's army, I expected them to be very good. And they have been better than I expected.

Having seen Russian forces in training & exercises, I expected them to be bad. They are worse than I expected. 1/10

But having said this, I've also learned a few things in my career:

1. Don't ever underestimate your enemy
2. The army that continues to adapt fastest usually wins.
3. You never know what the enemy "commander" (in this case, Putin) will do that may radically change things. 2/

While UKRs Army & Territorial forces are performing magnificently, they are on the horns of a dilemma:

Continue their resistance/continue with a very effective active defense OR siphon off manpower for massive humanitarian relief efforts (moving civilians, medical aid, etc). 3/

UKR will soon be faced with logistical challenges of their own...not just to their Army but to their civilian population who are suffering.

Resupply of weapons (AT, Anti-Air, drones, etc), but also food, medical aid, electricity, etc. 4/

The RUs face a bigger dilemma:

Culminate from the offense, and go into the defense sooner...and continue to deplete their logistics w more arty, missile, rockets, limited air, from "safe" locations

OR

Find a way to pull out (unlikely)

OR

Continue assaults (dumb) 5/

I won't comment on casualty numbers, but will say RU did not expect as many as they've seen (killed, wounded, deserted, captured). These are larger than what's being reported.

RU also didn't likely predict 3 key generals KIA in one week (with more replaced back in Moscow). 6/

The announcement of thousands of paid Syrians mercenaries joining the fight is a head scratcher to me. As is the limited missile attack on Lutsk.

No military advantage in either, and there could be significant downsides to both (more wasting logistics). 7/

Any use of chems/tactical nukes by Putin will be met with RU paying a "severe price." And Putin has now seen @potus means what he says.

Either could be a game changer, in both deaths and suffering. With no strategic goal.

Is Putin dumb enough? He has proven to be so far. 8/

RU will continue to cause horrific damages & increased refugee flow. But doubt they will "secure" or "control" any large city (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, Mariupol). They don't have troop-to-task to do it & it will further stretch logistics.

They will continue scorched earth 9/

What I'll be watching the next few days:
-RU actions toward Kyiv & attempts to bypass/isolate Mykolaiv (to get across the difficult Bug River)
-As well as the heroic fight of UKR forces, especially around the capital.
-Volume of RU indirect strikes.
-Refugee flow 10/10