I said in a thread yesterday that the closer the Ukrainians get to Kherson air base, the more likely Russia would be forced out by Ukrainian Drone aimed artillery.
This video is an example of what I was talking about.
There are only two ways to occupy an runway such that it doesn't operate aircraft.
1. Your troops have boots on it. 2. You have eyes on it connected to artillery with authority to being down steel & explosive death
Drones let Ukraine's artillery see farther.
It is the 2/
... Drone's "All seeing eye" which has changed war in Ukraine.
It has "Federalized" airpower to the lowest level so every ground commander has a little.
In fact, there is simply no way a single air force commander can control all these little drones over the battlefield. 3/
The Air Forces of the world will have to work out the fact that the airspace 2,000 feet above the ground now belongs to the Army and they will only get to visit occasionally...
...when invited.
4/End
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Alright Lady's & Gentlemen, boys and girls, it is time for another Truck logistics thread🧵 for this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
In it we are going to discuss the concept of "Operational Attrition" as applied to the Russian Army truck fleet in combat.
1/
In my now widely read thread on poorly maintained, cheap Chinese made, truck tires, I explained how Russia lost trucks & mobility by not maintaining tires.
This loss of vehicles without a shot being fired is referred to as "Operational Attrition."
There is a medical evacuation BMP in that Radio Free Europe video.
There is a part where the reporter is interviewing a Ukrainian talking about a mitten full of Ukrainian coins that Russian's looted.
2/
Given that Ukrainian's stories from locals, my impression of the Russian Army northern column is that their foraging has reduced them to the same state as the Catholic armies of the Holy Roman Empire in Germany during the 30 years war (1618–1648).
This is an important WW1 history note vis-a-vis' Russian artillery use in Ukraine.
None of the Russian arty ammo stocks being used now in Ukraine were planned for by Putin's military, just like happened with the belligerents at the beginning of WW1.👇👇👇 1/
WW1 & WW2 history gives us some clues/signs to look for as to whether Russia has such shortages
o Reduced artillery use
o Much higher dud rate due to use of "time expired" ammunition whose propellent & explosives are unstable
o Substitution of mortars for heavier artillery
2/
And by "mortar substitution," I mean we will be seeing Russian made 240mm mortars in action.
Text via Strategy page
"This Russian 240mm mortar remains useful despite short range (about 9,700 meters) because it is accurate and effective at that range, 3/ strategypage.com/htmw/htart/art…
The ability of non-state actors UAV's to play SEAD games by going after Patriot C-band emitters with this radar interference tracking tool is a threat not to be underestimated.
Patriot and other SAM radars will have to shift to using lower power wideband frequency hopping to push the peak power below the threshold of the satellites.
2/
Militaries are going to need to play the WW2 style close range anti-drone air defense of primary air defense weapons like the quad-.50 cal Maxon turret was shielding 40mm autocannon and 90 mm HAA from strafing fighters.