Share this page!

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Twitter logo
Mar 19 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The idea that the Belarus Army and civil society would do as they were told if the army were ordered to attack Ukraine seems questionable at best.
Might be wortwhile keeping a thread going on Belarus--more likely to have a coup attempt or popular uprising there than in Russia.
It’s like watching Waiting for Godot, if Godot was a political leadership deciding to commit a huge act of self-harm.
Lukashenko must be getting a little desperate torn between Putin’s demands and the chance of a serious domestic uprising.
An updated story on the situation in Belarus.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Phillips P. OBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 22
The most interesting/important story of the morning in terms of how the war might develop. The Ukrainian military is claiming that the logistics crisis that the Russians have been operating under since the start of the war is reaching acute crisis. see @guardian Image
Almost all military's have a supply crunch not long after the start of a war, as they usually under-estimate (sometimes spectacularly) the amount of stuff they will need to fight the war. War is so destructive that it consumes far more than people can imagine ahead of time.
One of the most famous of these supply crises was the First World War shell crisis which beset everyone. After only a few months of war the expenditure of ammunition was so much higher than expected, that artillery shells ran out and had to be rationed. encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/shells…
Read 9 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 21
Been puzzling about this U.K. MOD intelligence update since it was released this morning. In particular the last point that Kyiv is still the top priority for the Russians and they will ‘prioritise’ attempts to surround and take the city.
U.K. intelligence has been pretty good throughout, though this seems at odds with recent reporting and surmising that the Russians are turning to a southern and eastern strategy or a ratcheting down of Russian maximalist demands.
Also seems that Russian forces have moved sparingly to the northwest and northeast of Kyiv (this map has not changed for more than a week). If anything reports are that Russian forces are taking up more defensive positions. Image
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 21
What happens around Mariupol in the next few days should reveal alot about the state of the Russian Army--in a ghastly way. The 'demand' that the city be surrendered was really a plea. Saying to the Ukrainians, 'we really dont want to send our army into the town.' Image
This Ukrainian rejection will force the Russians to do the one thing they have so far been very reluctant to do in this campaign--go into a defended city. This is precisely because by their own actions, they have allowed the Ukrainians time to prepare.
The Russians have so far continued what they have been doing, long-distance bombardment. But that doesnt help them much at this point as theyve already blown up most of the city.
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 20
Ok, some people have asked for a summary of my views on war (why my analysis of the Ukraine war has been so pointed), so I thought I would make this thread with reference to my research (where possible free or library access material).
My view of war is in many ways profoundly boring. War is a struggle about the control of communications--which run from the raw materials needed to produce a good until that good is delivered to the battlefield.
It argues that the focus on bravery/cowardice of destruction/tragedy while compelling as a human story, tells us nothing of value about why wars are won and lost.
Read 20 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 20
A thread about how we report supposed victories in war (this one and others), why they dont matter nearly as much as people claim, and how they actually deceive us into understanding what really matters. Partly motivated by this @nytimes headline.
The New York Times is reporting this morning that the Russians are making 'significant' gains in Ukraine. In specific they are pushing into Mariopul, and they have hit two Ukrainian military facilities with long-range missile bombardment. Pretty dramatic and breathless stuff.
However, these are within the course of the war either unimportant, or actually signs of Russian defeats. In particular the attack on Mariopul. This is a humanitarian disaster and war crime, first and foremost. Militarily its a sign of Russian defeat, even if they seize the city.
Read 19 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 19
Still think it’s worth saying that a Russian use of chemical/biological weapons would be considered such a crossing of a escalators red lines that NATO could respond with a NFZ. That would make Russia think very very seriously before acting.
Im no expert in Russian Biological/Chemical weapons doctrine, but if they use them I assume that they would be used specifically to terrorize the largest Ukrainian cities (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lwiw, Odessa. Hitting the Ukrainian army, which is close to the Russian army, would be hard.
Such attacks would be the types of war crime that, imo, that could countenance a NFZ.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @PhillipsPOBrien has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @PhillipsPOBrien!

Read all threads by @PhillipsPOBrien

:(