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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Mar 21 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
What happens around Mariupol in the next few days should reveal alot about the state of the Russian Army--in a ghastly way. The 'demand' that the city be surrendered was really a plea. Saying to the Ukrainians, 'we really dont want to send our army into the town.'
This Ukrainian rejection will force the Russians to do the one thing they have so far been very reluctant to do in this campaign--go into a defended city. This is precisely because by their own actions, they have allowed the Ukrainians time to prepare.
The Russians have so far continued what they have been doing, long-distance bombardment. But that doesnt help them much at this point as theyve already blown up most of the city.
Indeed, they seem to have created a perfect environment for defenders to draw them into street by street fighting.
And the Russians have put relatively little effort into such a fight--and at the same time their troops have been in the field now for more than 3 weeks, and are undoubtedly suffering from strain and loss of morale. military.com/daily-news/opi…
So if the Ukrainians do continue to hold the centre, the Russian army will have to go in, and reveal alot about its training, morale and ability to continue this war.
Btw, if the Russians don’t send their army into Mariupol in the next few days, it’s because they really don’t believe it’s up to the task. They certainly don’t care about slaughtering more civilians; as that has become one of their core tactics
Worth adding this here.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 23
A very quick thread on those talking about Russia settling in for a long war and mobilising it’s resources for an extended campaign. Could they do it: possibly, but it would be a very different war with major societal implications.
The Russian Army is actually not that large. It’s around 900,000, which sounds big (though for a country of Russia’s size it’s very thinly spread) but about a third is conscript and many of the ‘professionals’ are on 12 month contracts. csis.org/blogs/post-sov…
We have pretty good intelligence that the Russians have deployed 75% of their best fighting formations to Ukraine (these are the ones wasting away now). Maybe they send the other 25%, but even that won’t make much of a difference in the short term.
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 22
The most interesting/important story of the morning in terms of how the war might develop. The Ukrainian military is claiming that the logistics crisis that the Russians have been operating under since the start of the war is reaching acute crisis. see @guardian Image
Almost all military's have a supply crunch not long after the start of a war, as they usually under-estimate (sometimes spectacularly) the amount of stuff they will need to fight the war. War is so destructive that it consumes far more than people can imagine ahead of time.
One of the most famous of these supply crises was the First World War shell crisis which beset everyone. After only a few months of war the expenditure of ammunition was so much higher than expected, that artillery shells ran out and had to be rationed. encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/shells…
Read 9 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 21
These stories have been coming in all morning. Would be surprising if Ukraine had the heavy forces available there to attack the Russian army to the northeast of Kyiv. But if they continue pressing, the Ukrainians could wreak havoc on Russian communications and supply
Ukrainian Army is now publicly claiming that they have liberated Makariv, which is the southerly of the two town in that map. So there seems to be something happening in this area.
Two big ifs. IF Kyiv is still the number 1 priority for the Russians and IF the below story is true, then this is by far the most important military development on the ground during the last few days. That inert Russian force to the northeast of Kyiv could be in big trouble
Read 12 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 21
Been puzzling about this U.K. MOD intelligence update since it was released this morning. In particular the last point that Kyiv is still the top priority for the Russians and they will ‘prioritise’ attempts to surround and take the city.
U.K. intelligence has been pretty good throughout, though this seems at odds with recent reporting and surmising that the Russians are turning to a southern and eastern strategy or a ratcheting down of Russian maximalist demands.
Also seems that Russian forces have moved sparingly to the northwest and northeast of Kyiv (this map has not changed for more than a week). If anything reports are that Russian forces are taking up more defensive positions.
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 20
Ok, some people have asked for a summary of my views on war (why my analysis of the Ukraine war has been so pointed), so I thought I would make this thread with reference to my research (where possible free or library access material).
My view of war is in many ways profoundly boring. War is a struggle about the control of communications--which run from the raw materials needed to produce a good until that good is delivered to the battlefield.
It argues that the focus on bravery/cowardice of destruction/tragedy while compelling as a human story, tells us nothing of value about why wars are won and lost.
Read 20 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 20
A thread about how we report supposed victories in war (this one and others), why they dont matter nearly as much as people claim, and how they actually deceive us into understanding what really matters. Partly motivated by this @nytimes headline.
The New York Times is reporting this morning that the Russians are making 'significant' gains in Ukraine. In specific they are pushing into Mariopul, and they have hit two Ukrainian military facilities with long-range missile bombardment. Pretty dramatic and breathless stuff.
However, these are within the course of the war either unimportant, or actually signs of Russian defeats. In particular the attack on Mariopul. This is a humanitarian disaster and war crime, first and foremost. Militarily its a sign of Russian defeat, even if they seize the city.
Read 19 tweets

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