Thread on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 20
🚩The #Russian Ministry of Defense just released another statement claiming to have used the Kinzhal hypersonic missile against a target in the Mykolaiv region.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that it targeted a "large fuel storage base of the Ukrainian Armed Forces" near Konstantinovka, using Kalibr cruise missiles fired from the Caspian Sea, and #Kinzhal hypersonic missiles fired from above Crimea
Again, there is very little military logic to the use of such missiles against a fuel depot (!), unless Russia is running out of other missiles. There is however, a logic in sending a message of deterrence to Ukraine's partners.
I personally think this is not a very effective tactic, & is just wasteful.

But it is clear to me that it's the main explanation behind the those strike - BTW the Russian MoD also reported a strike against a base hosting "foreign mercenaries" in Ovruch, which fits this message
🚩The Mariupol City Council reported that yesterday, Russian forces dropped bombs on a school where 400 residents were taking shelter. The building was destroyed, people are still buried under the rubble, and the number of victim is unknown.
t.me/mariupolrada/8…
The Ukrainian military claims to have killed the Deputy Commander of #Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Captain 1st rank Andrei Paliy
facebook.com/UkrainianLandF…
The military is not giving more details on the alleged killing of the deputy commander of the Black Fleet. This was initially reported by a number of Ukrainian sources, stemming from a social media post by the head of a Russian company who knew him.
ua.news/ru/vijskovi-li…
(so I personally consider this as unconfirmed for now).
If this is confirmed, this is at least the 14th high-ranking officer to be killed (Lt Col. and above) in Ukraine (my count, so I may be missing some).

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More from @michaelh992

Mar 21
Thread on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 21.
A small tactical Russian drone crashed in the Kharkiv region (likely an Orlan-10) Image
(This is from an Orlan-10 destroyed in Ukraine in 2014 - seems to match today's picture) Image
Read 23 tweets
Mar 19
Despite claims that the city was fully captured by Russian forces yesterday, Ukrainian sources report that fighting is still ongoing in Rubizhne, near Severodonetsk. Cities are being shelled.
Russia responded in Mykolaiv by hitting a Ukrainian military base yesterday morning. Final number of casualties has yet to be released, but likely very high (at least 40). There are many pictures of corpse covered in debris

(pic via Expressen)
expressen.se/nyheter/raketa…
(I have corrected this tweet as there was a typo: This happened yesterday morning not this morning)
Read 53 tweets
Mar 19
Thread on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 19.
Russian offensives remains stalled or "paused" in most areas, except the Donbass - and even there progress is slow.
In #Mariupol, there are reports this morning that clashes reached the center of the city and the area of the Azovstal plant. Yesterday the plant was hit by shelling (video by AA).
Read 5 tweets
Mar 18
Thread on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 18
Russian offensives continue to be almost entirely stalled/paused, with the exception of the Donbass.
There are reports that Izyum fell (I haven't seen video evidence that it is the case though, so I would not consider this to be confirmed). This could be significant, as Russian forces would be able to advance towards Slovyansk in the Donetsk Province.
Read 27 tweets
Mar 17
A visible move like this, to me is a tactic, just like when Russia placed its nuclear force on high alert.
The problem is that in this case even a small probability that this assessment may be wrong, can have a big impact on decision-making in the West, and I think Russia knows it. Moscow is trying to create some amount of uncertainty in a way that cripples our ability to act.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 17
Thread on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 17
This morning debris of a Russian missile intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses fell on a residential building in the Darnytsky district. One person was killed, and four injured according to the Kyiv city administration.
kyivcity.gov.ua/news/vorog_pos…
Russian shells fell on the town of Merefa near Kharkiv
Read 22 tweets

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