A visible move like this, to me is a tactic, just like when Russia placed its nuclear force on high alert.
The problem is that in this case even a small probability that this assessment may be wrong, can have a big impact on decision-making in the West, and I think Russia knows it. Moscow is trying to create some amount of uncertainty in a way that cripples our ability to act.
Again it's typical "Madman" strategy: Act mad to get everyone to be cautious. But Russia is doing it well.

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More from @michaelh992

Mar 18
Thread on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 18
Russian offensives continue to be almost entirely stalled/paused, with the exception of the Donbass.
There are reports that Izyum fell (I haven't seen video evidence that it is the case though, so I would not consider this to be confirmed). This could be significant, as Russian forces would be able to advance towards Slovyansk in the Donetsk Province.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 17
Thread on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 17
This morning debris of a Russian missile intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses fell on a residential building in the Darnytsky district. One person was killed, and four injured according to the Kyiv city administration.
kyivcity.gov.ua/news/vorog_pos…
Russian shells fell on the town of Merefa near Kharkiv
Read 22 tweets
Mar 16
Thread on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 16
Kyiv is still under the 35-hour-long curfew imposed yesterday by the Mayor following orders from the regional military administration. The curfew will last until tomorrow morning, 07:00 (7 am).
This morning Russia once against struck Kyiv, including the Shevchenkivskyi district, where a 12-story building was hit according to the Ukrainian emergency service
Read 49 tweets
Mar 15
Thread on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 15
Over the past 24 hours, there's been a clear uptick in Russian strikes against Kyiv itself - most being directed at civilian areas. I think the past 24 hour saw the highest number of strikes in Kyiv since the invasion began.
Two residential towers were hit in #Kyiv's Sviatoshynskyi, a house in the Osokorky, and another residential building in the Podilskyi this morning in strikes that occured between 4 and 6 am. At least two people were killed.
Read 20 tweets
Mar 14
Thread on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 14
The last day saw very limited Russian advances as Russian forces have effectively paused most of their offensives with some exceptions (but are still massively shelling cities). Most movements are in the Donbass and in southern Ukraine (Mykolaiv Oblast particularly).
It's clear that the Ukrainian defense is one of the main factors behind the Russian "pause", but over the past days, the Russians also seem to be regrouping and reorganizing. This is not over unfortunately.
Read 26 tweets
Mar 13
Thread on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 13
Yesterday saw very few Russian advance. Interestingly, Russian forces seem to have focused on the Donbass, including with an attack against Mariupol, and a continued attempt to surround Severodonetsk
I doubt #Russia is dropping its more ambitious goal for now, but I would not rule out that it's now more seriously considering a more limited goal (Luhansk, Donetsk and Kherson Provinces) as a Plan B to call its "special military operation" (invasion) a success.
Read 37 tweets

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