Occasional #Covid19Ireland analysis - that 1308 in hospital today with Covid is 125% last Monday & one of the highest days of the pandemic but is this simply the human cost of the 'exit wave' or indicating something has gone very wrong /1 Image
So far I'd lean towards this being the *expected* cost, the key metric of the proportion of cases that are hospital cases(1.36%) is still far below pre-Booster peak even though we know cases are comparatively undercounted since which would push that proportion up /2 Image
The increase in hospital cases is real enough, 1151 new hospital cases this week is 118% previous. About 1/2 are being described as incidental but that doesn't cancel out the increase in recent weeks as that was also true when it started /3 Image
It lags but the best clue if more hospital cases were not really incidental is the rate of hospital cases going to ICU. That is not rising with ICU Covid cases at 3% of new hospital cases in the week to 3 days previous /4 Image
According to last nights HSE Operations report less that 25% of invasively ventilated patients in ICU have Covid, 3/4 are something else. The 49 C19 in ICU is 117% last Monday /5 Image
The rate of new ICU cases per 7 days is well below the Autumn pre Booster peaks. 33 new ICU this week is 122% previous & New ICU in week is 0.05% cases in week to 10 days previous /6 Image
We recorded what might be the last episode of Plague Tapes at the weekend discussing this 'exit wave' & its human cost that current government policy has judged to be acceptable / inevitable. Current stats mean that calculation is unlikely to change /7
radioactiveinternational.org/gotw-pt124/
All the testing chopping & changing along with the extended bank holiday make case & swab numbers hard to interpret but with that 49% positivity & the last 3 days swabs being 104% previous week we can presume infections continue to grow so hospital cases will also /8 Image
I'm not really commenting on policy above, more describing the trends. But in general since the completion of willing primary adult vaccination at the end of July I've tended to see the removal of restrictions as the path that had to be taken /9
I'd have liked to see
1. Guaranteed sick pay
2. Heavily subsidised antigen testing (1 euro/test)
3. Major 'wear a mask to protect the vulnerable even though you don't have to' messaging rather than the protecting yourself / respecting 'anxiety'
4. Certified air filtration /10
But overall the purpose of the restrictions was to buy the time for vaccines to be developed, tested & administered while protecting healthcare & minimising deaths in the meantime. And so far the vaccines protect very well against severe outcomes /11
BTW I put exit wave in '' to indicate it was a label that has been used rather than somehow Covid magically goes away which clearly won't happen. We can hope its an 'exit' from the need for severe restrictions with future waves but even that isn't a done deal /12
The death notification system is too slow to read much into but the much faster NISRA system in the north continues to show negative excess deaths for 2022 & little suggests in the available data that the south should be worse. Again vaccines working well /13 Image
That negative excess does't equate to zero 'real' Covid deaths but rather than those that are occurring are less than the number of premature deaths created earlier by Covid that would otherwise occur now /14
Adding in & graphing all the PCR & antigen cases of the last few days suggests hospitial number will continue to rise into next week & beyond as the long weekend is bound to have had a lot of extra infection opportunities

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More from @andrewflood

Mar 23
Ireland just had its highest every 24 hour number of New Hospital Cases at 225, the previous high was 209 on 21st January 2022. The government 'head in the sand' approach to the 'exit wave' has now put the health service under threat again & threatens the need for restrictions/1 Image
The 1395 in hospital is 129% last Wednesday with average stay now at 9 days
1194 new hospital case this week is 108% previous
Donnelly has yet to create a new advisory committee & has no access to modelling so we are relying on his guesswork which is not confidence inspiring/2 Image
We are basically praying that we have or are about to hit the infection peak and so in 7-10 days the rate of new hospital cases will start to reduce. Which *might* happen, proportion of cases going to hospital is falling & Denmark has seen a far in cases & hospital numbers/3 Image
Read 11 tweets
Mar 7
Not happy to be doing this but the #Covid19Ireland hospital stats over last few days are not great - the 808 in hospital today are 132% last Monday so the obvious rise in the graph is not just the usual weekend increase /1
The number of new hospital cases each week has also risen almost as rapidly, 749 new hospital cases this week are 124% of the previous week /2
ICU is less definitive but it lags hospital cases by a few days and we *might* be seeing the start of a rise with the 21 new ICU cases this week at 110% previous /3
Read 9 tweets
Jan 22
#Covid19Ireland ICU admissions are now very clearly post peak with
44 new ICU this week is 79% previous
New ICU is 0.03% cases, 5.15% new hospital cases
78 in ICU this morning is 88% last Saturday
I'm going to be posting less often with a focus on trends 'just in case'
/1
The post peak trend is also clear in hospital figures, everything points to an infection peak in the 1srt week of January
804 new hospital cases this week is 82% previous
New hospital cases are 0.6% cases
836 hospital is 89% last Saturday
/2
As with yesterday my biggest note of caution is the way cases (and deaths) are now rising again in the north of Ireland
3476 cases is 121% last Saturday
25268 cases this week is 118% previous
5 DoH deaths
32 DoH deaths this week is 110% previous
/3
Read 4 tweets
Jan 21
NPHET recommending lifting of most restrictions is onbasis of overall strategy & our recent experience of Omicron post booster where hospitalisation rates are low & stays short. 892 hospital cases is 87% last Friday as we continue to descend from a peak in lower range of fears/1
It's always tempting to want for data 1st & I have concerns around age incidence but with 819 new hospital cases this week at 82% previous we are also seeing a consistent post peak decline in numbers being sent to hospital /2
When we last had 'its almost all over' messaging in late September the case hospitalisation rate was about 4 times the current rate & it then peaked at about 8 times the current rate. Today New hospital cases in week are 0.58% cases in week to 6 days earlier /3
Read 29 tweets
Jan 20
896 #Covid19Ireland hospital cases is 89% last Thursday - this view of hospital cases during the entire pandemic shows we peaked at about all last year but also that this & last Autumn we had peaks that were unfortunately brief interludes /1 Image
The 853 new hospital cases this week is 84% previous, this measure normally leads hospital occupancy so its a useful warning of a change in direction /2 Image
New Hospital cases are 0.58% cases, that rate of decent has slowed & for now hard to know how much of that is testing being overwhelmed and how much the large increase in incidence in older populations in the new year /3 Image
Read 10 tweets
Jan 9
Common Sunday increase in #Covid19Ireland hospital cases due to delayed discharges at weekend with 984 in Hospital 137% last Sunday - that rate has slowed & this day last year there were 1,285 in hospital. Discharges typically catch up Tuesdays so tomorrow may see over 1,000 /1
Today last year there were a similar number of new hospital cases (134) but we were in the middle of a rapid escalation of occupancy due to xmas intergenerational mixing - so far this year is different because of higher discharge rate, probably vaccine driven /2
Again due to vaccination the proportion of cases going to hospital is a tiny fraction of last year. New hospital cases are 0.83% cases in week to 6 days previous - just as well as there were 123k cases detected that week & probably as many again that could not access testing /3
Read 15 tweets

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