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Bill Roggio Profile picture
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Mar 21 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
1) This map, from @BBC, dated March 20, shows the situation in Mariupol. Ukrainian forces, led by the Azov Battalion, are bottled up in an area approximately 6 square miles. There is no relief.
2) A Russian general called for Ukrainian troops to surrender.
"There can be no question of any surrender, laying down of arms" in the city, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk responded.
reuters.com/world/europe/u…
3) The neo-Nazi Azov Battalion is unlikely to lay down its arms, so the fight for Mariupol will only get bloodier.

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More from @billroggio

Bill Roggio Profile picture
Mar 22
1) Today's must read, by @TaskandPurpose's Andrew Milburn:
"Overconfidence may obscure for the Ukrainians one salient fact about this conflict: Time is not on their side.

taskandpurpose.com/news/russian-m…
2) Milburn notes that the Russians are adapting their tactics: "The Russians are already adapting, and by doing so are narrowing the Ukrainians’ tactical edge."
3) "The one-sided culling of Russian armored columns that characterized the opening days of the war, and kept YouTube subscribers around the world happy, are a thing of the past."
Read 7 tweets
Bill Roggio Profile picture
Mar 20
1) Interesting information on the control of the skies above Ukraine: @nytimes: "While experts have been puzzled by Russia’s failure to gain complete control over the Ukrainian skies, they are certainly dominant ..."
nytimes.com/2022/03/19/wor…
2) "... --- Russian surface-to-air missile capabilities can reach anywhere in Ukraine, according to military analysts. Russia is believed to fly some 200 sorties per day while Ukraine flies five to 10."
3) In the first week of the war, it is not clear how many Russian strikes hit their targets, but Piotr Lukasiewicz, an analyst at Polityka Insight, a Warsaw-based research institute, said that they did serious damage to Ukraine’s command and control centers."
Read 12 tweets
Bill Roggio Profile picture
Mar 20
1) The situation in Mariupol is grim. From @nytimes: "Street battles broke out in Mariupol ... as Russian troops and allied irregular forces moved into the city ..."
nytimes.com/live/2022/03/1…
2) "Residents who fled the city in recent days have described scenes of dead bodies dotting the streets, widespread looting and the suffering endured by thousands who remain trapped without heat or water."
3) "Ukrainian government reported that its forces were outgunned, that attempts to provide air support had failed and that it had “temporarily” lost contact with the city’s officials."
Read 7 tweets
Bill Roggio Profile picture
Mar 19
1) Latest map from @nytimes. Accompanying analysis is similar to mine - the east is in danger of being encircled.
2) According to this map, the city of Chernihiv is now completely surrounded. Polohy is again marked as Russian controlled. Status of Izium is unclear, Pentagon said it was Russian controlled but Ukrainians deny this. Either way you can see how the Russians view its importance.
3) Additionally, Russian forces have punched through the defenses at Mariupol and are fighting in the city center. MOUT (military operations on urbanized terrain) is a nasty affair, you cannot set a timetable for how long the fighting will last.
nytimes.com/live/2022/03/1…
Read 6 tweets
Bill Roggio Profile picture
Mar 18
1) My article at @DailyMailUK on Russia & the war in Ukraine. I've made many of the points in various Twitter threads, but the following part is new. While Russia may win in Ukraine (it may also lose), it has shown that is is not a serious conventional threat to NATO.
2) Quoting from the article. "While the information campaigns have clouded the reality of the situation on the ground, what has also become clear is that Russian military does not pose a conventional threat to NATO."
3) "Smaller, non-NATO members, such as Moldova, are not so lucky."

"Whatever successes the Russian military has had in Ukraine, the operation has exposed serious flaws in its ability to wage war against an adversary with advanced weaponry and sophisticated tactics."
Read 7 tweets
Bill Roggio Profile picture
Mar 16
1) @nytimes most recent map illustrates many of the points made in yesterday's thread. However I think it understates Russian advances in the southeast. Polohy and the area around it is under Russian control.
2) Here is yesterday's update. I highlighted the importance of Izium and Dnipro. Add Kryvyi Rih to that list, which the Russians are pushing towards. If the Russians have success in Kryvyi Rih, it will open the back door to Dnipro and Zaporizhzha.
3) The @nytimes map shows how precarious the situation is in the northern part of the east. Russian troops have bypassed Kharkiv and are pushing into Izium, where there is fighting inside the town.
Read 11 tweets

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