Anton Barbashin Profile picture
Mar 22 10 tweets 3 min read
What does the Russian war "Z" stand for? Do the Russians stand by it?
Who came up with it and why?
Thread 1/10
Russian's don't know what this war ("special military operation") is about. First most popular answer is "protection of the DPR and LPR " - 32% respondents; second answer is "I don't know" and that's 27%.
Available polls on the support of war efforts are useless since
2/10
people are inclined to say they support "special military operation" either as a proof of loyalty or because they are aware Russian state introduced laws that punish anything that might "discredit Russian armed forces"
3/10
"Operation Z" came as out of nowhere and state TV began to promote is as proof that Russians support this war.
"On the surface, it looks like a powerful upsurge of patriotism, and a show of grassroots support for government initiatives. But that is to miss the point"
4/10
This letter was first spotted on Russian military equipment and "denoted military district or direction of attack". MOD PR guys picked it up, approved it with Shoigu and launched the campaign in support of war efforts. New version of 2014 "polite people"
5/10
Long story short, there is no explanation for why a Latin letter Z stands for the protection of "Russian world". This is something PR came up on the go since they were not prepared for this war, they had to improvise. Even Kremlin's own political technologists criticize it
6/10
The problem with "Z" is that it has no meaning. It stands for nothing. It is ideologically shallow. Not least because no one really understand what this war is for.
"Is it for fighting or conducting a «special operation»? Is it set on preventing Ukraine from attacking
7/10
the DPR and LPR, or from developing nuclear weapons? Is Kremlin aiming to depose President Zelensky or does it consider him a legitimate ruler?"
8/10
"Propaganda cannot package Putin’s aspirations like his confrontation with the West into an ideological product, because there is no rational sense in these actions. This is an ideological dead end. So people get the same irrational Z as an explanation"
9/10
This speaks volumes about the state of preparation for this war. Putin kept it even from his PR people and thus we get a meaningless brand for a meaningless war.
Fore more details read this Andrei Pertsev for @RiddleRussia
ridl.io/en/what-does-t…
10/10

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More from @ABarbashin

Mar 20
Propaganda works. The more totalitarian it is the better. The more radical the lies the less convincing sound the rational debunking. The only question is how long it can work.
I mean those who do not know Russian context of today. Think of Trump, Bolsonaro, far-right
1/10
Since the war began we don't have reliable polls on Russia, we don't have any proper research being conducted. What we have are the stories from journalists that still work in Russia and stories from the community of Russians present on twitter, FB, telegram.
2/10
So, the following is observations only based on available data that does not represent all of the country but big cities primarily. Could be extrapolated by with adjustments.
1. The younger, the more chances are people understand that Russia is waging a war in Ukraine;
3/10
Read 10 tweets
Mar 18
Russia has only once officially recognized 498 KIA in Ukraine on March 2nd. No official statements on the matter were published ever since. According to Russian law naming any figure beyond that would be fake news and a matter of criminal investigation.
1/7
Figures I'm seeing indicate a diapason from 5000 to 14000 dead with about 7000 being a more likely estimate. This is a pace beyond anything in Russian history since WWII. Afghanistan or Chechnya do not come even close.
2/7
It would be reasonable to assume that most of the families of the KIA that do not have affirmative information that their relative is alive want to think their loved one is either alive and fighting, MIA or captured. Key question is how long they are ready to wait
3/7
Read 7 tweets
Mar 16
Timing is everything. And time is certainly not on the side of Putin. What is no less important is how much time does Ukraine have? Thread 1/12
You don't have to be a military expert to see that Russian offensive in Ukraine is not going according to a plan. Russia's advance is very slow, Russia is reportedly even pulling forces from the Caucasus to join the fight (let alone the "Middle East volunteers").
2/12
Evident brutality of shelling is a byproduct of the failure to execute a "fast campaign". But, given at least what's on the paper, Russia has enough forces and hardware to go at it for long time. Hardly, the issue of a Russian military defeat is in the cards.
3/12
Read 12 tweets
Mar 14
We don’t know for a fact how many Russians believe propaganda and how many do not. But numerous indicators point to the fact that Russian society is split. There is a huge segment that supports what they think is happening in Ukraine and another segment that does not. Thread 1/5
This is a process that involves radical change in how Russians view themselves and how they view the world. Many were easy to face reality but even more were not.
2/5
It makes sense to support every initiative and effort to spread information about the war as it ultimately weakens Putin’s chance to stay in power long-term. One thing is to rule over an impoverished society that think they suffer for a good cause
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Mar 12
An institutionalist explanation for why Putin invaded Ukraine. None of "he is crazy" or "he is rebuilding the Soviet Empire".
Putting it differently how come Kremlin made the worst decision in the past few decades?
1/10
Vladimir Gelman explains why there is no reason to believe Putin wasn't rational about taking this decision. His every decision before invading Ukraine was quite rational if we take into consideration Putin's calculus.
Key explanation for why this decision was
2/10
made is that Russia is a personalist authoritarian state. The stronger the authoritarianism in Russia, the stupider it gets: because it relies on people because of their loyalty and not expertise.
Critical feedback in FP is non-existant within decision-making circles
3/10
Read 11 tweets
Mar 10
Fresh portion of Valdai delusions. But with an interesting twist - "China will need Russia's help soon, we need to stay strong for that". Thread 1/9
In his new "5-minutes of hate" piece Timofei Bordachev welcomes the opportunities that new "iron curtain" brings Russia, comparing 2022 to 1917. Because 1917 allowed to "get social mobility going and created a more just society"...okaaaay 2/9
The "Economic and humanitarian war of the West" -
(yes, Russia is the victim today) will give Russia an opportunity to be a force of its own. Russia is departing from its dependence on West that was harmful and is now open to new horizons 3/9
Read 9 tweets

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