Thread by @ABarbashin

Timing is everything. And time is certainly not on the side of Putin. What is no less important is how much time does Ukraine have? Thread 1/12

You don't have to be a military expert to see that Russian offensive in Ukraine is not going according to a plan. Russia's advance is very slow, Russia is reportedly even pulling forces from the Caucasus to join the fight (let alone the "Middle East volunteers").
2/12

Evident brutality of shelling is a byproduct of the failure to execute a "fast campaign". But, given at least what's on the paper, Russia has enough forces and hardware to go at it for long time. Hardly, the issue of a Russian military defeat is in the cards.
3/12

Sanctions are starting to get noticed, first and by most on the prices tags of literally everything in Russia, foreign and domestic. And this is only the beginning. Most estimates indicate that we will see a greater challenge for economic stability closer to April and full
4/12

crisis by the summer. This along with the casualties of war will pose significant challenge to Putin's regime stability at home. By late summer you might have a cohort of people beyond you normal protesting crowd ready to take it to the streets.
5/12

there are numerous factors in play but we are looking at bad/horrible scenarios for Russian economy. By the fall if some of the sanctions are not lifted, significant rise in unemployment is inevitable leading to a very hard winter for Putin's regime.
6/12

so far, nothing like hunger or general shortage of foods/basic goods is foreseeable even in the long run.
But, it goes without saying that most of Russian civic bureaucratic apparatus is interested in at least pausing this conflict ASAP
7/12

There are doubts about how long the regime can hold it's own vertical intact with propaganda and material stimulus only. And turning to repression among there own might only increase the speed of collapse of this vertical.
Remember we're dealing with a highly cynical machine
8/12

that was built on corruption and for extraction of rent. This is not a Soviet bureaucracy that came out of repressions and WWII.
Anyway, next stop is early April-ish - a possible first likely time for some form of a pause in this war (if Ukraine gives in);
9/12

Again, Russia could attempt to work around the inevitable throughout the summer but it would put the entire regime in overdrive mode (way beyond what we see now). And it is clearly not built for that.
10/12

So here is ugly part. The longer Ukraine stands its ground, the greater the chance to avoid big compromises with Putin. The longer it holds however, the greater the cost. How long can Ukraine stand?
11/12

So far it has proven and is continuing to prove that Kremlin knew very little of this nation, its people and its readiness to defend themselves. But, as Kremlin has proven time after time again, it does no care for civilian casualties.
12/12