We don’t know for a fact how many Russians believe propaganda and how many do not. But numerous indicators point to the fact that Russian society is split. There is a huge segment that supports what they think is happening in Ukraine and another segment that does not. Thread 1/5
This is a process that involves radical change in how Russians view themselves and how they view the world. Many were easy to face reality but even more were not.
2/5
It makes sense to support every initiative and effort to spread information about the war as it ultimately weakens Putin’s chance to stay in power long-term. One thing is to rule over an impoverished society that think they suffer for a good cause
3/5
And a totally another case when you have a great segment of discontent that know their government is to blame.
Giving propaganda easy tools to suppress the uneasy realisation that it is Putin who is responsible for deaths of thousands in Ukraine is a bad policy
4/5
You will not have a total defeat of Russia when this war is over. What comes next is being constructed and shaped now. Naturally, it makes sense to have as many people knowing how things are than a population believing in a delusional case of its dictator 5/5

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More from @ABarbashin

Mar 16
Timing is everything. And time is certainly not on the side of Putin. What is no less important is how much time does Ukraine have? Thread 1/12
You don't have to be a military expert to see that Russian offensive in Ukraine is not going according to a plan. Russia's advance is very slow, Russia is reportedly even pulling forces from the Caucasus to join the fight (let alone the "Middle East volunteers").
2/12
Evident brutality of shelling is a byproduct of the failure to execute a "fast campaign". But, given at least what's on the paper, Russia has enough forces and hardware to go at it for long time. Hardly, the issue of a Russian military defeat is in the cards.
3/12
Read 12 tweets
Mar 12
An institutionalist explanation for why Putin invaded Ukraine. None of "he is crazy" or "he is rebuilding the Soviet Empire".
Putting it differently how come Kremlin made the worst decision in the past few decades?
1/10
Vladimir Gelman explains why there is no reason to believe Putin wasn't rational about taking this decision. His every decision before invading Ukraine was quite rational if we take into consideration Putin's calculus.
Key explanation for why this decision was
2/10
made is that Russia is a personalist authoritarian state. The stronger the authoritarianism in Russia, the stupider it gets: because it relies on people because of their loyalty and not expertise.
Critical feedback in FP is non-existant within decision-making circles
3/10
Read 11 tweets
Mar 10
Fresh portion of Valdai delusions. But with an interesting twist - "China will need Russia's help soon, we need to stay strong for that". Thread 1/9
In his new "5-minutes of hate" piece Timofei Bordachev welcomes the opportunities that new "iron curtain" brings Russia, comparing 2022 to 1917. Because 1917 allowed to "get social mobility going and created a more just society"...okaaaay 2/9
The "Economic and humanitarian war of the West" -
(yes, Russia is the victim today) will give Russia an opportunity to be a force of its own. Russia is departing from its dependence on West that was harmful and is now open to new horizons 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Mar 8
Based on conversations with people living in Moscow, Sankt-Petersburg and Novosibirsk it would seem that aside from groups 60 and older the majority of people are starting to get the situation.
No, it is not what you might expect. Will try to get a few quotes here 1/8
"This is of course, war. We don't know what the end goal is. But it would seem Putin has departed from reality."
"Most people supported independence for DNR/LNR, what came the next is too much and is scary" 2/8
"Russia is probably doomed, we get it. It will get tremendously worse. But I don't want to spend the next few years in jail."
"Even if Putin "wins", sanctions will stay. We are ruined." 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Mar 7
How will #sanctions hammer Russian economy? Thread based on insightful @maria_shagina piece for @RiddleRussia
"Unwilling to counter Russia’s atrocities in Ukraine with direct military involvement, the West has opted to wage all out financial warfare" 1/8
ridl.io/en/an-unpreced…
First, we should note the unprecedented unity and speed of sanctions introduced. If in previous confrontation cycles it took ages for EU to get sanctions agenda agreed now it is extremely fast. Also, new nations join unified sanctions front - Singapore, Switzerland and Korea 2/8
First tool is the full blocking sanctions for state-owned second-largest bank VTB and a handful of other financial institutions (Sovcombank, Otkritie and Novicombank). US and UK also prohibited any dollar and sterling transactions for Russia's largest Sberbank 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Mar 4
How Russia covered the war in Ukraine from day one to today. The level of "reality fabrication" here is unbelievable and only matched by state's resolve to punish those who protest war. Based on this long-read by @IrisovaOlga for @RiddleRussia
ridl.io/en/the-russian…
Thread 1/9
There are 5 major narratives that have been pushed by Kremlin propaganda since the war began.
1st narrative - "The West provoked Russia"
Operation in Ukraine is presented as a matter of "life and death" for Russian people, state and sovereignty 2/9
For 8 years the US has invested in creating a hostile state out of Ukraine, Biden torpedoed every attempt at diplomacy. Ukraine aims for nuclear arms, US aims to use Ukraine to attack Russia. 3/9
Read 9 tweets

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