Dan Lamothe Profile picture
Mar 25 12 tweets 2 min read
A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the war in Ukraine concluded a bit ago.

A few major takeaways:
Lots of attention on Russia’s announcement today that they are prioritizing the Donbas region. The Pentagon saw that coming, flagging the likelihood for reporters in a background briefing Wednesday.
The senior defense official said Friday that it is “difficult to say” if Russia’s new emphasis on the Donbas represents a change in strategy. But he notes they are digging defensive positions outside Kyiv, rather than attempting to continue their advance.
Fierce fighting in several parts of Ukraine continues, Mariupol in particular. Several Ukrainian offensives against Russia also have some effect.
For the first time in weeks, the Pentagon assessed today that Kherson, a port city in southern Ukraine, is no longer under full Russian control.
"It doesn't appear to be as solidly in Russian control as it was before,” the senior defense official said. “Ukrainians are trying to take Kherson back and we would argue that Kherson is actually contested territory again."
Ukrainian forces also have pushed back Russian forces to some degree outside the northern Chernihiv, making “incremental” progress, the senior defense official said.

Other Ukrainian offensives are underway in the Kyiv suburbs. Makariv, west of Kyiv, is contested, Pentagon says.
As of Friday, Russia has now launched more than 1,250 missiles at Ukraine since invading Feb. 24.

Senior defense official says that Russia has experienced malfunctions with some of their cruise missiles, in particular.
Pentagon now assesses that Russia has 85 to 90 percent of its preassembled combat power. While that’s a nebulous number, it represents continued losses.

Pentagon assessment had been "less than 90" percent before.
For first time, Pentagon says today specifically that sees signs that Russia is moving some of its troops from the Republic of Georgia to fight in Russia.
Senior defense official confirms the attack on a Russian ship in Berdyansk that was widely reported yesterday.

Says Pentagon assesses it was an LST (landing ship, tank).
The Pentagon still assesses that Ukrainian airspace is contested, though the Russians are flying about 300 sorties per day, drastically more than Ukraine.

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More from @DanLamothe

Mar 23
A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the war in Ukraine has just concluded. It’s Day 28 since Russia’s invasion.

A few major takeaways:
In light of President Biden’s trip and NATO’s announcement that new battle groups will be going Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Hungary, several Qs were raised about possible new U.S. deployments.

Short answer: Pentagon isn't ruling it out, but not confirming anything today.
Pentagon asked to speak to NATO’s disclosure today that they assess 7K to 15K Russian soldiers killed in four weeks.

Senior defense official says he has not seen estimates “as high as NATO’s” but does not offer U.S. numbers. U.S. still has “low confidence” in their assessments.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 22
A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the Russian war on Ukraine just concluded. It’s Day 27 since the Russian invasion.

Here are some takeaways:
Fighting in and around the southern port city of Mariupol remains fierce, as Russia tries to claim a first strategic victory after weeks of fighting. It now includes naval shelling launched from the Sea of Azov, the senior defense official said.
Near the southern city of Mykolaiv, there are now signs that the Russians are repositioning themselves outside the city to the south after facing fierce resistance from Ukrainians, senior U.S. defense official says.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 21
A backgrounder briefing with a senior U.S. defense official at the Pentagon about the Russian war in Ukraine has just concluded. It’s Day 26 of the invasion.

Some takeaways:
As noted widely in the media, fighting in and around Mariupol is fierce, the senior defense official says. It remains isolated.
Seizing Mariupol is significant to the Russians because it will provide Putin with a land bridge to Crimea, cut off Ukrainian forces there from the rest of the country, and provide the Russians with a new port, senior U.S. defense official says.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 18
I’ve been noodling with this @jackshafer piece this afternoon. Parts of it ring true. But other parts fundamentally are at odds with my lived experience.

politico.com/news/magazine/…
I’ll say this with background up front: I’ve spent months of my life around the U.S. military as a journalist in Afghanistan. I’ve seen ambushes launched, IEDs explode, airstrikes land, etc.
My experiences aren’t particularly remarkable in that regard, either. There’s a generation of us journalists out there, and there’s always *someone* who saw something louder, crazier, scarier, darker.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 18
No Pentagon background briefing today about the war in Ukraine as @SecDef and his senior staff are traveling.

They did just release this update, though:
@SecDef "This is Day 23 of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Russians remain largely stalled across the country."
"Near Kyiv, we still observe Russian forces have not made significant advances toward the city in the north/north west. And to the east of Kyiv, we have observed no movement of Russian forces."
Read 11 tweets
Mar 17
A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the Russian war on Ukraine has just concluded. It’s Day 22 of the invasion.

Much remains the same:
Russia’s advances are largely still stalled. One exception: Pentagon assesses Thursday for the first time that the Russians have seized Izyum, a town southeast of Kharkiv and north of Mariupol.

Russia want to cut off eastern Ukraine from rest of country, U.S. official says.
Front end of beleaguered Russian convoy north of Kyiv remains outside city. But Russian forces have moved up artillery, the senior defense official said, as Russia appears to be readying additional fires.

“They’re trying to wear the city down,” senior defense official says.
Read 11 tweets

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