Thread by @kakape

I’ve said a few times that how this pandemic has played out so far makes me think I cannot just remain an infectious disease reporter but have to understand/write about misinformation and how it spreads too.
So here is a first story (and thread) on this:

science.org/content/articl…

First off: Delving into a new field is the most daunting and the most rewarding part of being a journalist. It will take time to know this area as well as I know infections. So if you know of fascinating ideas, research, scientists out there, point me in the right direction…

So what have I learnt in this forst foray into the budding field of misinformation research?
Well, (no surprise to anyone who knows me): It’s complicated.

But a few basic points:

1. More and more researchers from various fields are seeing this as a huge existential problem and starting to work on it. (@CT_Bergstrom is an example and that is one reason, I chose to do this partly as a profile of him)

@CT_Bergstrom For example here is what Bergstrom and @jevinwest wrote recently in a paper:
“Misinformation has reached crisis proportions. It poses a risk to international peace, interferes with democratic decision-making, endangers the well-being of the planet, and threatens public health.”

@CT_Bergstrom @jevinwest (That is from this PNAS piece on “misinformation in and about Science”:
pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…)

@CT_Bergstrom @jevinwest 2. How big the problem is, is hard to tell and difficult to study


There is a lot of misinformation out there. No question. But what impact does it actually have? Is it changing behaviour? Or is it a symptom of people’s already changed behaviour because of polarisation etc.?

@CT_Bergstrom @jevinwest Take the pandemic:
Bergstrom’s view is that 1/3 of the US being unvaccinated against #SARSCoV2 is ample proof of the impact of misinformation. But as he well knows and as @scheufele points out: correlation is not causation.

@CT_Bergstrom @jevinwest @scheufele Broadly speaking there are two main approaches to studying misinformation:
One concentrates more on networks and how far and wide certain pieces of misinformation spread, the other concentrates more on how people interact with misinformation/what it does to their beliefs&actions

@CT_Bergstrom @jevinwest @scheufele Both approaches have limitations:
Studying how misinformation spreads in networks may allow you to identify it more easily and even reduce it, but whether/how that would actually impact the beliefs people hold or how they behave is an entirely different question.

@CT_Bergstrom @jevinwest @scheufele On the other hand, it can be difficult to see big effects on people's beliefs or actions in rigorous studies in a lab setting. But then, of course, we don’t live in a lab, we live in an information ecosystem that constantly bombards us with information.

@CT_Bergstrom @jevinwest @scheufele “Just look around. It’s a complete shift in how the information ecology works at a social level. How can you not expect it to have an impact?”, @zeynep told me. “An ecological shift of this nature doesn’t lend itself to that kind of study.”

@CT_Bergstrom @jevinwest @scheufele @zeynep My take-away from this:
The success of this burgeoning new field of misinformation research may well depend on how well these two different approaches can be bridged or made to complement each other.

@CT_Bergstrom @jevinwest @scheufele @zeynep 3. While this research may inform regulation in the future, the field actually needs regulation itself to be successful.
Right now scientists are severely hampered by the lack of data/access from social media companies.

@CT_Bergstrom @jevinwest @scheufele @zeynep As @M_B_Petersen told me: “The only way in which we can create that discipline is by policymakers forcing tech companies to provide data access."

@CT_Bergstrom @jevinwest @scheufele @zeynep @M_B_Petersen 4. Many researchers see a tradeoff between needing actionable answers right now for a huge problem and rigorously dissecting a fiendishly complex set of issues.
This is where the call for a “crisis discipline” from @jbakcoleman and others comes in (pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…)

@CT_Bergstrom @jevinwest @scheufele @zeynep @M_B_Petersen @jbakcoleman It will be fascinating to watch (and crucial for the field) to see how this trade-off is navigated.

I will try to write a bit more about misinformation and evolution later, but do read the piece and let me know what you think:
science.org/content/articl…