Why is #WangYi coming to India? Some thoughts in this thread:
The Chinese have a confirmed propensity for such choreographed diplomatic maneuvers- that is their style and habitual mode of transacting foreign relations. Secondly, they see an opening, a scope for new alignments 1/
that must be explored against the scenario of the Russia-Ukraine war, especially if any new alignments can take away from the sum of coalitions within the Indo-Pacific, led by the United States. India is a key and central power in this calculus-an India that is careful not to
criticize or condemn Russia for its actions, or, pin its colors to a western mast - a country which powers like China (and by extension, Russia) would like to see inching towards their side, although I believe, we remain solidly (and not ‘shakily’ to use a Bidenesque term)
with our partners in the Quad (and I believe they have little option but to understand, and accept, our position on Russia, given the constraints dictated by our defence relationship with that country).
Thirdly, the Chinese want to use the current situation to see how they can pin down and probe India on the future of bilateral relations, away from our emphasis on restoration of the status quo along the LAC in Ladakh, to a wider canvas of ‘business as usual’ in relations
which would convey a ‘success’ for China. How China can imagine such an eventuality defies logic or reason or realism. Wang Yi’s flat-footedness at the OIC meet in Islamabad and the reference to Kashmir was not designed for a successful India visit.
Which leads me to think - China continues to ignore a basic tenet about how good relations and mutual trust can be built - which is mutual sensitivity. China, are you listening?
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What is India’s strategy on Afghanistan? Am sure we realise the HUGE implications of what a Taliban driven by Rawalpindi calling the shots in Afghanistan means for us. As it is, with two hostile neighbours our situation is BAD.
Are we just silent spectators as the car crash happens? We are a a big country, neither small nor helpless, proud of our autonomy of foreign policy. We are not a small western country playing follow the leader. No, we are India, proud and independent. And yet..
We cannot withdraw into a helpless huddle. Our consulates have closed (will we ever reopen them? My hunch is perhaps, never).All that we did in Afghanistan for 20 years is in jeopardy. Wish we had publicly expressed our deep reservations and opposition to the US withdrawal.
Please tell me the ‘right lesson’ we learned from Sri Lanka after the IPKF phase? We sacrificed blood and treasure for a good cause- the unity and integrity of SL-although the LTTE fought us bitterly -and we quit before the mission was completed.
History has to judge whether that withdrawal was the right decision. The civil war in SL intensified after 1990 and the country’s suffering was profound.
The more important question is why like family planning policies during the Emergency, intervention in the cause of peace and an end to conflict in our neighbourhood where our neighbours want it has become a third rail we don’t want to go near again?
I read Chinese actions in #Ladakh as a significant trespass across the #LAC aimed at gaining tactical advantage and strategic depth in certain vantage points along the LAC as for 1/n
e.g Depsang Plain (a wide unimpeded plateau) that offers access to the #AksaiChin as also in reverse to areas on our side, #Galwan Valley (commanding heights over the Darbuk-#Shyok-#DBO Road), #Pangong Tso 2/n
But not a fresh territorial dispute over new areas of the UT of Ladakh (where they are already in possession of the Aksai Chin and areas south and east of Kongka La plus the Shaksgam Valley illegally ceded by Pakistan) 3/n
Analyzing PM’s statement of yesterday:
Government has taken realistic view of constraints emanating from asymmetry of power with China . It is also reading the Chinese reaction to J&K reorganization more seriously than before and trying to calm situation along LAC/staunch Galwan
Question:will same approach apply to Pangong Tso or Depsang?Possibly.We may be witnessing shift to a less rigid approach on LAC differences with China in the interest of peace &tranquility so that our internal balancing at a time of the many challenges we face is not disturbed.
If this means that there is also growing political will within Government to push for an early border settlement with China I think that is an interesting development &need not be opposed.The question is how we resolve issue of the Chinese attitude on McMahon Line and Tawang.
The official #PLA statement on the tragic #Galwan face-off is worth scrutiny: it refers to the Galwan Valley as being “on the China-Indian border” and that the Indian Army “crossed” the #LAC and “violated their commitments”. 1/n
It says that “The sovereignty of the #GalwanValley” has always been China’s. The statement uses the words “seriously violated” twice in its reference to Indian troops having “seriously violated the agreements between the two countries on border issues” and “seriously violated ..
the consensus reached in the Chinese-Indian commander-level talks, and seriously damaging the relations between the two armies and the feelings of the two peoples”. The statement says that “we demand” that India “strictly restrain the frontline troops..
What are the sources of Chinese conduct in #Ladakh today?China today is global power imbued with a strong sense of nationalism, an obstinate sense of righteousness (without morality) about its whole political, military and economic system..
It sees a world stage, particularly an Asian stage that is devoid of a strong American presence or sustained commitment to check #Chineseadventurism or #expansionism whether on sea or land as existed until recent years: this oxygenates #China..
China is now poised to deploy its military and economic strengths to advance its national interest on multiple fronts in a naked and unhindered way -and its state capacity under #XiJinping has been revved up and given the ‘go’ to act thus ..