No difference BA.1 vs BA.2 seen for VE vs hospitalization; both fall ~20 per cent points after 70 days
Nearly 200,000 Covid hospitalizations are estimated to have been prevented by boosters, age 25+, since mid-December
Keep in mind the UK booster rate is 2-times the US and 2-dose vaccine protection vs Omicron hospitalization (BA.1 or BA.2) is poor (VE 30-50% after waning) without a booster
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The 4th shot is already underway in the UK. Meanwhile, millions of Americans of advanced age are well past 6 months from getting their 3rd shot, with substantial waning of protection, with no plan yet. /1
Reduction in neutralizing antibodies after mRNA vaccines at 5 months /2 nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Israel's findings of protection for the 3rd and 4th dose are quite different, both in people age 60+, early read out at just 12+ days
3rd shot (Delta wave): ~15-fold protection vs severe illness
4th shot (Omicron wave): ~4-fold protection vs severe illness
Whereas the 3rd shot had durable protection vs severe illness for 4+ months, the 4th (vs Omicron, w/ far more immune evasion), may be limited
They've worked remarkably well vs severe disease, with a 3rd shot that restored effectiveness at ~95% vs hospitalization and death.
But the virus has continued to evolve, the antigenic distance between Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 is as far as Beta to Gamma.
When South Korea, a model country for the pandemic, has >400,000 new cases in a day, leading the world per capita, you take notice. Tests 4X the US with <1/6th the population. BA.2 is 26% as of this week's report.
Very high 2-shot vaxx 87%, 3-shot 63%. The pandemic isn't over.
Relative to Hong Kong, it's death rate is very low. Boosters more than double. Great coverage of age 60+ No Sinovac vaccines.
BTW Hong Kong's booster 30% rate now exceeds the US (29%)
Relative to European countries with a BA.2-related hospitalization increase, South Korea's (BA.1) is more pronounced